EUCOP EC)COP15128 2050GHG 30BAU1530 EU GDP 2020 2009/03/27 3040516 1329 4EU20405 10818 1016 1
EU 20209.629024% 2020 (a) 18000 150 (b) 8400 70 (a) 20132020 (d) 72000600 (e) 36000300 (d) 5200/t-CO2 120 24%24%0% 72000 180002020 8700/t-CO272.2 2013 2020 24%6%18 % 36000 84002020 5200/t-CO243.6 2013 2020 2 Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen', Extensive background information and analysis Part 1, table 13
(LTVS; Low carbon Technology Voucher System)) CO2 LTVS) Voucher) 2 CO2 LTVCO2 LTV3 (Voucher) 3
COP15EU 2/6 2050GHG EU3/23/19-20 2GHG90 202030 90COP15 EU2030 1990 21 2020BAU1530 2011 4
GHG Emission Level GHG Emission Level Baseline Domestic Action Actual emissions Acquisition of credits through carbon market Developed country target Baseline Actual emissions Own Action, Autonomous Own Action, Supported Action generating credits for transfer through carbon market Time Time *1 developing country GHG emissions are increasing rapidly and, if not addressed, will outweigh developed country efforts to reduce their GHG emissions. 5 *2 Support for the incremental costs of such investment must come from the full range of sources and innovative financing mechanisms, including public funds and international carbon crediting mechanisms. It is estimated that these crediting mechanisms can provide one third or more of the additional investments in developing countries 8 *3 The POLES model was used to analyze the type of actions/technologies necessary in the energy and transport sector to ensure that GHG emissions are limited to be in line with the objectives proposed by the EU The results are referred to as the appropriate global action scenario. part161 5
4 + = 1990 1990 *1 Developed countries should be able to achieve their reduction targets in part through domestic action and in part by using credits resulting from emission reductions in developing countries 4 *2 GDP per capita; Rich countries have a higher ability to invest in reductions than poor ones and have a higher ability to invest in GHG reductions in other countries through offsetting mechanisms. part36 6
4 + = 1990 1990 7
COP15EU communication EU(13p.) 3EU EU EUThe Commission) EU3/2 EU3/19-20 EUPART1(101p.),PART2(127p.) 8
EU350ppm CO2 CO2 2005380ppm 350ppm Overshoot 2005CO2 379ppm 350ppm1985 2008 350ppm CO2350ppm 1985 EU p.3) In the light of some new research findings, an increasing number of scientists are calling for the level of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere to be stabilised at a significantly lower level than previously recommended, i.e. as low as 350 ppmv CO2 equivalent. 9
Box 1 EU 2 EU 20201990GHG30 EU30 2020BAU1530 2030 2020 50 GHG EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.25 10
EUAGA;2009 GHG 1.0 0.5 20507080% GHG 2020 1.0 0 CAP 2005 CDM or 2050 2100 0.5 2050GHG GHG 1.0 0.5 0 BAU1530% CDM or 2005 2050 2100 0 2005 2050 2100 CDM or CAP &TradeEU OECE ETS 11
Gt-CO2-eq10CO2-eqEUBaseline (BAU)GHG CO2WEO2008 CO2 CH4,N2O CO21.83 19902050 LULUCFLand Use and Land Use Change and Forestry) GHG CO2 Agriculture CH4N2O Energy & Industry other GHGPHF HFC) EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.46 EU19902020CO27130 WEO200819902020CO27430EU 19902050CO255/301.83 12
{COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.96EU2050GHG EUAGA2009 Gt-CO2-eq10CO2-eq CO2 CH4,N2O CO2 2050GHG 05 COP15EUAppropriate Global ActionAGA) EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.95 CO2GHG) 20500590 36 2 13
{COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.96EUIPCCAR5RCP Gt-CO2-eq10CO2-eq IPCC CO2 CO2 2050CO2 CH4,N2O EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 EUAGA2009CO2LULUCF)IPCCIMAGE2.9/2.6 CO2 EUAGA2009AR4IICO2450ppmCO2500ppm 14
CO2EUAGA2009)450ppm CO2EU450ppm EUAGA)6SO CO2101990 Gt-CO2-eq(10-CO2-eq) CO2GHG 23 2004 2004 11.3Gt-CO2-eq EU(AGA;2009) Baseline EU(AGA;2009) Reduction 450ppm IPCC AR4 WG3, p.28 2004GHG 49Gt-CO2-eq CO2GHG 2311.3Gt- CO2-eq 450ppmCO2 EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1{COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.46, p.95 15
EUAGA2009)450ppm EUAGA, 2009)6450ppmCO2 1990 EU0.2 1000.60.2IPCC TAR, 2001) EUAGA2009) Reduction 450ppm450ppm GHGCO2 1990 EUAGA2009) Reduction EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1{COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.46, p.96 (a) (b)1990eu EUMAGICC (Tom Wigley,1995) NICCS20012008 16
EUAGA2009BAU 68/5270/42 65/6563/61 16/16 21/21 19/18 28/24 38/22.5 60/60 4.5/4.5 82/81 6.2/6.0 120/95 8.2/6.6 150/80 9.3/5.4 13/13 14/11.7 23/22 12.2/12.1 14.2/10.3 23/17.5 23/13 05 2020 BAU 120/60=2.0 95/60=1.58 2030 BAU: 150/60=2.5 80/60=1.33 550ppm05 2020 1.30 2030 1.46 05 2020 BAU 14.0/13.0=1.08 11.7/13.00.910 2030 BAU 14.2/13.01.09 10.3/13.00.7920 450ppm05 2020 8 2030 20 JRC/IPTS - Joint Research Centre s Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission. The global POLES model was used by JRC/IPTS to analyse the impact on the energy system and industry. It assesses the mitigation potential for GHG emissions in the energy system and industrial emissions including other gases than CO2. 17
BAU1209525BAU Gt-CO2-eq(10-CO2-eq) 21-CO2-eq 1990 EU 57-CO2e JRC/IPTS, POLEp.12) 05 10 202020 2030 18
CO2 450550ppmCO2 2005 BAU BAU21 EU(AGA;2009) 550ppm 450ppm EU(AGA;2009)BAUWEO2008BAU EU2020BAU120t-CO2e25t-CO2e BAU21