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1 c PML Swiss Re 2001 Canabarro et al : IHD
2 ,
3 A B PML Probable Maximum Loss X Y 3 2.
4 PML a H(a) x f H(x) (3.1) H(a) = Z a f H(x)dx i 3.
5 263 f F (x, i) a F (a, i) (3.2) F (a, i) = Z a 0 f F (x, i)dx i C(i) L(a) (3.3) L(a) = n 1 X i=1 C(i){F (a, i) F (a, i +1)} + C(n)F (a, n) n i PML PML 1 2 A B L A L B µ A µ B σ A σ B L P µ P σ P (3.4) (3.5) µ P = µ A + µ B σp 2 = σa 2 + σb 2 +2ρσ Aσ B ρ L A L B ρ =1 (3.6) σ 2 P =(σ A + σ B) 2 σ P = σ A + σ B PML PML 3.5 ρ =1 PML a, 2000b
6 Annaka and Yashiro
7
8 i l P (i) 7.
9 267 (3.7) l P (i) =l P (i) l(i) l P (i) l P (i) l(i) (3.8a) (3.8b) l(i) = min[l u,f 1(l P (i))] (l P (i) >l 0) l(i) =0 (l P (i) l 0) l 0 l u f 1( ) (3.9a) (3.9b) l(i) =f 2(M(i)) C (M(i) M 0) l(i) =0 (M(i) <M 0) M(i) i C M 0 f 2( ) 2 p p p (3.10a) (3.10b) p = L ovl /L rpt p = A ovl /A rpt L rpt L ovl A rpt A ovl p =1 p =
10
11 C 0 = gal C gal Annaka and Yashiro (4.1) log A =0.61M h log(d) d =( h 2 ) exp(0.699m) A h M 0.5 5
12
13 km km 6 1 f 2( ) 12 3 a M = M = b c M = M = PML /475 PML PML
14 PML PML 4 PML PML PML 200 PML b 8 1
15 PML b M M =730 14
16 =292 M
17 M PML
18 PML 4 19 M 0 M a
19 277 c 1 PML PML 1 PML 1/475 PML PML 3 4 Annaka, T. and Yashiro, H A seismic source model with temporal dependence of large earthquake occurrence for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Japan, Risk Analysis (eds. C. A. Brebbia and J. L. Rubio), , WIT Press, Southampton, U.K. Annaka, T. and Yashiro, H Uncertainties in a probabilistic model for seismic hazard analysis in Japan, Risk Analysis II ed. C. A. Brebbia, , WIT Press, Southampton, U.K. Canabarro, Eduardo, Anderson, Richard R., Finkemeier, Markus and Bendimerad, Fouad Analyzing Insurance-linked Securities, Fixed Income Research, Goldman Sachs, New York PD a b. JCOSSAR PML Swiss Re Capital market innovation in the insurance industry, Swiss Re SIGMA Series, No. 3, Zürich.
20 278 Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Vol. 50, No. 2, (2002) An Analysis for Securitizing of Seismic Risk Harumi Yashiro (Asian Disaster Reduction Center; The Tokio Marine and Fire Insurance Co., Ltd.) Sei ichiro Fukushima (Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd.) In recent years, some risk analysis methods have been proposed for quantitative evaluations of risk. However although it is important for carrying out effective risk management, the treatment of quantified risk has not been considered sufficiently. This paper proposes a seismic portfolio analysis method considering the effect of risk transfer such as securitization, which has been adopted to the portfolio of 73 buildings in Tokyo. Through its application, the following findings are obtained: the grid has a relatively large effect on the PML (probable maximum loss) although the forfeiture rate of principal does not, risk transfer is more effective from the viewpoint of investment for risk with a smaller grid and a higher trigger level that is the minimum magnitude for forfeiture, and some combinations of grid and forfeiture rate can be identical to each other regardless of principal. Key words: Portfolio of buildings, risk management, seismic risk, risk transfer, securitization of risk.
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首都直下地震における地方財政への影響
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EQUIVALENT TRANSFORMATION TECHNIQUE FOR ISLANDING DETECTION METHODS OF SYNCHRONOUS GENERATOR -REACTIVE POWER PERTURBATION METHODS USING AVR OR SVC- Ju
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JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE ASSOCIATION FOR PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY VOL. 66, NO. 6 (Nov., 2001) (Received August 10, 2001; accepted November 9, 2001) Alternative approach using the Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate
Key Words: probabilisic scenario earthquake, active fault data, Great Hanshin earthquake, low frequency-high impact earthquake motion, seismic hazard map 3) Cornell, C. A.: Engineering Seismic
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SUMMARY Japan is one of the most earthquakeprone country in the world, and has repeatedly experienced serious major damages. No matter how serious the impact of earthquake disasters, each and every time,
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Table 1. Assumed performance of a water electrol ysis plant. Fig. 1. Structure of a proposed power generation system utilizing waste heat from factori
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Security of Leasehold Interest -in cases of the False Housing Registries by Other Than the Lessee by Shin ISHIKAWA The House Protection Act 1909 in Japan, under which many lessees can be protected from
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SUMMARY Although the situation where sufficient food was not supplied for the victims occurred in the Great East Japan Earthquake, this is a serious problem at the time of catastrophic disasters like the
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OTEC 18(2013),5968 小型の波浪発電を想定した浮体運動の最大化を目的とした浮体形状に関する研究 59 *1 *1 *2 Studies on the floating body shape to maximize the kinetic energy that are intended to be small wave power generator Shunya NISHIZAWA
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20 * Re-Evaluation of Isoseismal Maps and Magnitudes from Two Big Earthquakes along the Subduction Zone of Kyushu and Ryukyu Islands Early in the 20th Century Masayuki TAKEMURA, Katsuhisa KANDA Kobori
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On repairing the masonry wall of the castle Kanazawa KITANO Hiroshi This study considers the method of studying the masonry wall of the castle in the Kinsei era, taking the castle Kanazawa in Ishikawa
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57 Multi-channel MAC Protocol with Multi-busytone in Ad-hoc Networks Masatoshi Fukushima*, Ushio Yamamoto* and Yoshikuni Onozato* Abstract Multi-channel MAC protocols for wireless ad hoc networks have
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56 2015 pp. 175 190 CBT CBT CBT UNWTO 2015 2013 10 2015 11 3,300 2010 2030 3.3 2030 182014 1 2,450 GDP 9 2016 1 30 175 56 UNESCO 2010 Living Heritage Cultural Landscape Community-Based Tourism 2002UNWTO
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GIS Simulation analysis of disseminate of disaster information using GIS * ** *** Toshitaka KATADAJunsaku ASADA and Noriyuki KUWASAWA GIS GIS AbstractWe have developed the simulation model expressing the
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