SEF 1 100% PWR BWR BWR 100% PWR AGR PWR 100% PWR 251 10 2 1
to vent stack draft fan Isolation condenser Unit 1 boric acid air Primary containment Vessel top opening Reactor pressure vessel Reactor building AO SV BWR System MO water via fire water or makeup water line Report of Japanese Government to the IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety The Accident at TEPCO s Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations June 2011 Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters Government of of Japan steam turbine x 1 G surface condenser SW intake PI LI core hydraulic system seismometer UPS AO TI suppression PI chamber control rod drive MO metal clad switchgear AC from outside 6.9kV normal bus x MC diesel generator Uninterruptible power supply pedestal 6.9kV emergency bus x DC/AC inverter TI MCC HPCI all unit Motor control center RCIC Unit 2 480V emergency bus x 125V DC bus x 1 control room cond. storage tank trans Greenwood Office 3 MC 4 2
unscrubbed hydrogen PCV spray cooling and washing fuel pool RPV polar crane SV steam generator HPCI PCV corium GL fuel pool RPV RPV suppression chamber pressure relief tank corium BWR PWR Three Mile Island accident 6 3
7 2 PWR BWR 8 4
9 powerlaw p(x)=cx^( 1 α) Poisson (λ=0.5) Caussian (σ=80) 0 log x 1 2 0.01 log p(x) 4 6 8 C=0.02 α=0.3034 0.0001 0.000001 0.00000001 Density Function p(x) 10 0.0000000001 12 0.000000000001 1 14 100 10,000 1,000,000 100,000,000 x (Ci/GW year) p(x)=λe λx p(x)=1/ (2πσ2)e (x μ)2/2σ2 σ=80 () p(x)=cx α 1 (x)= Cx α 10 5
Mark-I BWR intermediate storage total storage cap:20,420tu in storage: 15,110tU av.66% full TEPCO82% full ask transport storage cap 3,000tU full 50 cutting & dissolving radioactive gas to vent solvent extraction uranium purification plutonium purification glasiffication U storage P storage water to ocean Mark-III BWR 300m 2028 12 6
EB1,440EB2 1,440 20111,533 13 50 8,200m 2 14 7
Now Stage 1 Stage 2 15 16 8
17 Sea Level Rise in Hokkaido during Flandrian Transgression Age 18 9
煽 19 20 10
21 22 11
23 Fracking gas production in North Dakota Map of wells planned and drilled in a section of the Bakken (DMR Presentation to Farm Bureau) 24 12
Well sites in the Bakken (Vern Whitten for DMR Farm Presentation) DMR: Department of Mineral Resources 25 26 13
CBM 27 28 14
29 Qatar Das Oman Bintulu Lumut Arun Badak Dampir LNG trade to Japan Sakhalin Kenai Feed gas cost contained in LNG cost is very small. Majority of the cost is capital cost. Construction cost of the LNG plant is supplied by project finance. Banker is willing to finance the project using LNG sales agreement including take or pay clause. Hence, LNG could be regarded as pseudodomestic energy Ashahi 2008 Export Capacity in 1990 (Mt/y) Distance (km) Owner Engineer Contractor Akaska (Kenai) 0.0 5,550 Phillips Bechtel Sakhalin(Brigodonoe) 6.0 1,800 Shell Chiyoda/TEC Brunei (Lumut) 6.4 4,400 S JGC/Procon Indonesia (Arun, Badak 13.6 6,000 Mobil Bechtel/Chiyoda Malysia(Bintulu Salawa 13.3 4,400 Shell JGC/Kellogg Australia(Dampir) 12.1 7,000 Shell JGC/Kellogg UAE(Das Island) 5.6 12,000 BP Bechtel/Chiyoda Qatar(Al Wa'b) 8.2 12,000 Mobil Chiyoda Oman(Qalhat) 3.6 11,000 Shell Chiyoda 30 Total 68.8 15
Qatar LNG plant 1997-2009 Victory of technological innovation and high credibility World largest gas field, North Field KBR could not design amine treating plant for removing organic sulfur and found fluctuating Wobbe Index of fuel gas We proposed alternative process to avoid fluctuating Wobbe Index and successful in awarding first plant for this huge gas field There are 4 trains of 3.3million ton/year plant with MCR process and gasturbine w/waste heat recovery + variable speed generator + variable speed motor There are 4 trains of 7.8million ton/year plant with APX process and gasturbine w/waste heat recovery + variable speed generator + variable speed motor All 6 trains are cooled by seawater Greenwood Office 31 Hambach open pit mine Begun in 1978, the mine currently has a size of 33.89 km² and is planned to eventually have a size of 85 km². It is the deepest open pit mine with respect to sea level, where the ground of the pit is 293 metres (961 ft) below sea level. 32 16
33 Powder River Basin Coal Gillett Campbell County Airport, Wyoming 34 17
LNG Combined Cycle & IGCC stack stack recycle gas recycle gas waste heat boiler waste heat boiler S.W. S.W. air fuel gas S.W. G BFW pump surface condenser air M coal gasifir slug S.W. amine 35 G BFW pump surface condenser O 2 N 2 gypsum ASU 160.000 wood coal NG nuclear hydraulic bio wind/sol oil renewables 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 index 60.000 40.000 20.000 0.000 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 20.000 year 36 18
37 PV 1 38 19
Parabolic Trough 樋 39 40 20
700 construction cost (yen/w) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year nuclear coal BTG LNG combined cycle oil BTG pump storage wind land wind sea 41 PV trough CSP geothermal x 0.1 hydraulic x 0.1 600 500 price 400 300 200 crude oil ($/bbl) LNG ($/(MMbtu) coal ($/t) uranium ($/lb) gasoline (yen/liter) town gas (yen/nm3) 100 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year 42 21
kwh 45.00 40.00 price (yen/kwh) 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 crude oil LNG coal uranium enriched uranium spent uranium gasoline town gas 5.00 0.00 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year 43 60.00 50.00 40.00 nuclear coal BTG LNG combined cycle oil BTG pump storage yen/kwh 30.00 20.00 10.00 wind land wind sea PV CSP CSP sunbelt geothermal 0.00 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year hydraulic wind ammonia combined 44 22
40 60 50 40 GW 30 20 total BWR PWR 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 year 2050 BWR 45 Scenario of Nuclear Retreat 謬 46 23
35 Definition of Nuclear Retreat Nuclear 30 25 % 20 15 zero nuclear in 2030 zero nuclear in 2060 zero nuclear in 2090 10 5 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 5 year BWR 47 Scenario 1 Annual Average Generation 60.0 annual average generation (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 (10.0) year flowing hydraulics nuclear coal BTG LNG combined cycle oil BTG wind PV ammonia geothermal dam hydraulics pump storage turbine 48 24
Scenario 2 Annual Average Generation annual average generation (%) 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 5.0 year flowing hydraulics nuclear coal BTG LNG combined cycle oil BTG wind PV ammonia geothermal dam hydraulics pump storage turbine 49 Scenario 3 Annual Average Generation 35.0 annual average generation (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 (5.0) year flowing hydraulics nuclear coal BTG LNG combined cycle oil BTG wind PV ammonia geothermal dam hydraulics pump storage turbine 50 25
35 Effect of Nuclear Retreat on Grid Cost yen /kwh 30 25 20 15 10 5 zero nuclear in 2030, single phase zero nuclear in 2060, single phase zero nucleasr in 2090, single phase zero nuclear in 2030, 3 phase zero nuclear in 2060, 3 phase 0 zero nuclear in 2090, 3 phase 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year 51 40 Effect of Nuclear on CO 2 Emission 35 gco2/kwh x 0.1 30 25 20 15 10 zero nuclear in 2030 zero nuclear in 2060 zero nuclear in 2090 5 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year 52 26
Independent power supply by Wind + LNG power 2030 2060 53 54 27
yen/kwh 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Single Phase Grid Price vs PV+battery 0.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year zero nuclear in 2030 zero nuclear in 2060 zero nuclear in 2090 PV + battery PV charged battery for home use unit 2000 2030 2060 2090 power source - PV PV PV PV type of battery - lithium ion lithium ion lithium ion lithium ion battery construction cost yen/kwh 100,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 life y 9 9 9 9 power recovery % 85 85 85 85 55 60.0 Single Phase grid price vs PV + town gas engine co use yen/kwh 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year zero nuclear in 2030 zero nuclear in 2060 zero nuclear in 2090 PV + engine PV engine output town gas engine efficiency 56 28