c OR&SA OR&SA 2 OR&SA (Polarity) OR&SA 1. 1) 2) OR&SA 2 3) 2 OR&SA 2014 7 [1] 1) 2) 3) 153 8648 2 2 1 4) 5) 6) 1980 1990 2000 2. 234 36 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
1 2015 160 870 2,620 152 147 t 1 102 27 8 12 52 27 2.71 3 1.9 5 20 22 1.5 14 15 1.8 1 7 780 10.3 t 250 60 t 210 19.7 t 410 20.1 t 137 46.7 t 20 34.7 t 560 350 620 60 500 410 130 50 1 2015 [2] 1 1 1 1 [4] J-10, Su/J-11, Su-30 MKK/J-16 1995 1996 1 1996 4 J-10 J-11 [3, 4] 1 1996 24 2015 639 26.6 4 3 4 [5] 2 2001 2014 [6] 2 15 1996 2 2014 2 (IISS) 3 (ICBM) (SLBM) 1996 2017 2016 4 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited. 37 235
2 2 (2001 2014) 1993 1998 I 1999 2006 II 2009 2 2012 2013 3 2015 (SLBM) 2016 4 2030 [7] GDP 2010 2 3 (1996 2017) 2017 [4] 3 ICBM SLBM ICBM SLBM 2010 2030 GDP (a) 1990 2006 1,500 km 2 2016 1 4 2 236 38 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
4 (b) 1999 2000 2008 12 2012 9 100 [8] 4 2013 2013 2014 2015 11 88 6 5 (2010 2014) (1958 2014) 3 (c) [9] 2013 11 2014 5 6 5 2010 2014 6 2014 943 944 2012 306 248 [9] 2016 4 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited. 39 237
3 7 (2010 2014) (d) 2013 2014 1 3 2 [10] 2005 4 (e) 1992 30 53,000 [2, 11] 3. OR&SA OR OR OR [12] OR&SA [13] 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 WHO 1 OR&SA OR&SA OR&SA OR [14] OR&SA 1 SA OR&SA OR&SA 238 40 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
4 (Polarity) 5 2015 1 Unipolar Hegemony Bipolar Multipolar 1 50 2 50 25 25 3 51 50 2 25 OR (Polarity) [15] OR [16] OR [12] 3.1 (Polarity) [15] 2 E. 4 [17] 2 OR&SA 7,260 7,500 215 300 260 90 110 100 120 80 6 8 5 (SIPRI) 2015 9 7,260 7,500 260 [18] 2 50 2010 2012 240 2013 2014 250 2015 260 3 (Concentration) (Tightness) 1996 2017 [4] 2016 4 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited. 41 239
(parity) 3.2 dx dt = a y b x + c (1) dy dt = d x e y + f (2) a, b, c, d, e, f > 0 (1) (2) a d b e c f 1919 OR [12] [19] A B (RPC) A x(n) B y(n) [20] 8 y(n) = x(n) = a(m)x(n m)+u(n) (3) m=0 b(m)y(n m)+v(n) (4) m=1 a(m) b(m) A B u(n) v(n) n A x b(m) y (3) (4) (5) r ij(f) =q ij(f)/q i(f) (5) (5) q ij(f) x i q i(f) u i(f) [19] 1970 8 RPC RPC Time Series Analysis and Control (TIMSAC) 9 2 [21] 9 240 42 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
9 (Process Decision Program Chart: PDPC) [22] 4. OR&SA [1] 2014. [2] 2015 2015. [3] International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2015. [4] RAND Corporation, Tallying the U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Relative Capabilities and the Balance of Power, 1996 2017, 2015. [5] pp. 122 129, 2014. [6] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, http:// www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex data base [7] 17, p. 3, 2013. [8] 2012 2015.11, http://www.kaiho. mlit.go.jp/mission/senkaku/senkaku.html [9] 26 2015.4.15. [10] 2015. [11] http:// www. mod. go. jp/ j/ approach/ kokusai heiwa/ index. html 2016 2 18 [12] OR 2005. [13] OR2011. [14] OR 58, pp. 576 581, 2008. [15] B. B. de Mesquita, Measuring systemic polarity, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 19, pp. 187 216, 1975. [16] Polarity 44 2014. [17] E. D. Mansfield, Concentration, polarity, and the distribution of power, International Studies Quarterly, 37, pp. 105 128, 1993. [18] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, World nuclear forces, January 2015, http://www.sipri. org/research/armaments/nuclear-forces 2016 2 18 [19] pp. 43 71, 1981. [20] 1972. [21] 2014 2014. [22] 1973. 2016 4 Copyright c by ORSJ. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited. 43 241