13 2005 Making Sense of Real Estate Worldwide ｨｺｨｦ0505ｨ ｨｹ ｨｦ03ｨ ｨｦｨｺ ｨｺ01040102 04000505ｨ 05ｨ 02ｨｦ05ｨｪｨ 2005 RUSSIA 2005 REAL ESTATE REVIEW
13Colliers International 2005 ｨｺｨｦ0505ｨ ｨｹ ｨｦ03ｨ ｨｦｨｺ ｨｺ01040102 04000505ｨ 05ｨ 02ｨｦ05ｨｪｨ 2005 0307020000 0807 apple07 00040ｸ9 09000207apple036ｦ00ｷ3090ｸ9 07 00010702020900apple09 ｨ 000300apple000004000203 050ｸ8 006ｦ006 000300 006ｦ0 066ｦ006036ｦ003: www.colliers.com RUSSIA 2005 REAL ESTATE REVIEW For more information about Colliers International, visit our web sites at www.colliers.com
132005 ｨｺｨｦ0505ｨ ｨｹ ｨｦ03ｨ ｨｦｨｺ ｨｺ01040102 04000505ｨ 05ｨ 02ｨｦ05ｨｪｨ ｨｺｨｬ05050102ｨｹ 0500ｨｺ05ｨ ｨｹ 05ｨｦ0500ｨｺ050204ｨ 00 ｨｺ07060609fl. ｨｴ0107000703090ｹ00006010906 07 0907apple....... 4 020706016 56ｦ0 ｨ 006 5000603090ｷ30909....................... 6 ｨｦ020906006ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300............. 7 0501026ｦ0 06016ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300.......... 13 ｨｪ07apple6 7076 56ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300........... 15 056ｦ0000103-ｨｨ000300apple 04apple6 7 ｨ 006 5000603090ｷ30909...................... 21 ｨｦ020906006ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300............ 23 0501026ｦ0 06016ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300.......... 27 ｨｪ07apple6 7076 56ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300........... 29 0509026ｦ0fl 0000 6 50908090307060300............. 32
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132005 RUSSIA R EAL ESTATE REVIEW ENGLISH VERSION TABLE OF CONTENTS Russia Economic Overview......... 41 Moscow Investment...................... 45 Office Sector.................... 46 Warehouse Sector................ 52 Retail Sector..................... 54 St. Petersburg Investment...................... 60 Office Sector.................... 62 Warehouse Sector................ 65 Retail Sector..................... 67 Residential Sector................. 70
13In January, 2005 Colliers International has been awarded the Central & Eastern European Real Estate Agency of the Year as determined by the jury of the Central & Eastern European Real Estate Quality Awards
13Russia Economic Overview I n 2004, Russia ｯs economic growth was fostered by the government ｯs macroeconomic policy. It was characterized primarily by economic stabilization and further structural reforms. By the end of 2004, Russia ｯs foreign reserves at the Central Bank reached an all-time high of $124.5 bln 1, compared to $76.9 bln in 2003. In 2004, the country ｯs GDP grew by 6.9% 2, while the federal budget surplus made 4.1%. The growth of GDP was driven by two main factors ｨC favorable foreign market conditions (including high oil prices) and the increasing domestic demand. In 2004, inflation fell to 11.7% 3 compared with 12% in 2003. Continued economic growth in 2004 led to a 9% 4 rise of real disposable income, which, in its turn, resulted in the rise of consumer spending and retail turnover (11.8%) 5. In 2004, positive world economic trends and higher demand levels (both locally and abroad) pushed the level of fixed capital investment up a further 10.8% 6. Macroeconomic stability over the past seven years and continuing economic growth encouraged the inflow of foreign investments. In 2004, their total volume in non-financial sector reached $29.1 bln 7 ｨC the highest level since 1995. As in the previous years, the growth of credits helped to secure more foreign investments. From January to September 2004, foreign direct investments ｨC primarily in the oil, trade, and food sectors ｨC grew by 19.8% (compared with 2003) and amounted to $5.6 bln 8. Table 2. Sovereign rating of RF Rating on Russia ｯs Agency foreign currency bonds BBBｨC Standard & Poor ｯs BBBｨC Fitch Ratings Baa3 Moody's Investors Service During the period of Russian economic reforms these sectors remained the most attractive for foreign investors. In 2004, the pool of active foreign investors did not change and included such countries as Germany, the USA, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Great Britain and France. International rating agencies Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's upgraded Russia's long-term sovereign rating from BB+ to BBB-. This decision was brought about by several factors: the consumer boom, high oil prices (oil has the largest share in the Russian commodity exports), foreign currency reserves exceeding external debt and a swiftly growing stabilization fund. Russia ｯs investment grade rating awarded by three international rating agencies also reflects recent crucial improvements in the country ｯs debt level and external liquidity. It is expected that this will ensure further inflow of investments. High oil prices, external and domestic growth in demand along with the federal budget stability and prudent fiscal policy will ensure a relatively high growth rate of the Russian economy in 2005ｨC2006. Table 1. Major macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation Economic indicators 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F GDP growth (YOY), % 9.0 5.0 4.7 7.3 6.9 6.3 Foreign reserves, $ bln 28.0 36.6 46.3 76.9 124.5 - Current account, $ bln 46.3 34.2 31.7 60.5 71.4 - Federal budget balance, % of GDP 2.3 3.3 1.4 1.7 4.1 1.5 CPI inflation, % 20.2 18.6 15.1 12.0 11.7 8.5 Investment in fixed assets (YOY), % 17.4 8.7 2.6 12.5 10.8 9.5 Real disposable income (YOY), % 9.3 6.8 9.9 14.9 9.0 9.0 RTS stock market index at the end of the year 138.0 253.0 353.0 569.0 614.0-1 Source: Central Bank of Russia 2-8 Source: Ministry of Economy Development and Trade of Russia RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 41
13MOSCOW
13Moscow Investment Investment I n the year 2004 the commercial real estate market of Moscow was characterized by a high level of investment activity. It exhibited the trend towards greater sophistication due to the entry of new players (professional investors and lending institutions), as well as towards higher efficiency in terms of the number, volume, complexity and transparency of investment deals. The ranks of Commercial Real Estate investors were joined by private Russian pension funds that, as a result of the dismal performance of the country ｯs stock market and the generally negative outlook for bond investments, are increasingly looking at alternative asset classes. Several funds are poised to make the first acquisitions and, as the legal and technical aspects of their investment mandate are worked out and their assets under management rise rapidly, they will become formidable players. The nascent Russian Real Estate Investment Fund (REIF) industry was very active, although the bulk of investment deals were of a small size and were often done to probe the legal, technical and tax status of these collective investment vehicles. Among other noteworthy developments was the activity of Chinese investors ｨC primarily SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) ｨC that are entering development projects, as well as acquiring properties for their own use. Capitalization rates for quality income-producing assets fell by 50ｨC100 basis points last year and are presently in the range of 12ｨC13% for prime offices and 13ｨC14% for shopping centers and high street retail. We expect further compression of current yields due to increased competition for a limited stock of investment grade assets, although in the mid-term they are unlikely to fall by more than 2ｨC3 percentage points, in part due to rising interest rates in the United States. It seems likely that year 2005 will be marked by the first investment sales of shopping centers Among the most notable investment deals of the past year were the acquisition of Berlin House mixed-use complex by the Swiss stock exchange-listed Eastern Property Holdings, which also took a stake in the Mosmart hypermarket chain, LUKOIL Perm ｯs purchase of the Central Tower office project and IFD Capital ｯs acquisition of Toko Towers. Debt financing in the form of permanent loans is readily available at increasingly favorable terms. Interest rates are in the range of LIBOR + 5ｨC8%, loan terms can reach 12 years with flexible amortization schemes. Incumbents in the refinancing business (International Moscow Bank, Societe Generale and Raiffeisen Bank) were joined by the Baltic countries ｯ largest financial institution ｨC Hansa Bank, which marked its entry by closing its first real estate financing deal in Moscow. Project finance remains a daunting task for commercial real estate developers and so far has been realized by a handful of Russian and Kazakh banks, most frequently in the form of mezzanine. Never-the-less, a growing number of Russian banks are turning their backs on the increasingly risky residential development projects, which for a number of years provided them with mouthwatering returns, and, having no competitive advantage in the refinancing business, are testing the waters of project financing for commercial projects. Furthermore, the latest amendment to Russian law, which provides for the registration of investment contracts rights as collateral, is expected to spur the development of project financing by dramatically raising the security of such deals for lenders. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 45
13Office Sector Moscow Office Sector T he Moscow office market is close to equilibrium with its stable rental rates and gradually rising vacancy indicators. In 2004, a number of significant changes took place in the Moscow office market, which will produce a considerable impact on its development in 2005. Diagram 1 Real estate market cycle Moscow (SOM) and Hellmuth, Obata + Kassabaum, Inc (HOK)). Sale-and-lease-back transactions. Decreasing capitalization rates. Increasing number of professional investors entering the market, increasing demand for refinancing and project financing, appearance of more attractive refinancing and project financing terms. Moscow districts Recovery Expansion Contraction Recession Office Market Trends in 2004ｨC2005 Further market decentralization, development of submarkets, additional redevelopment of industrial zones and construction of techno-parks. Increasing number of development projects in the midtown districts of Moscow. Beginning of construction by ENKA, Capital Group and Northern Tower within the framework of the major Moscow City project. Development of the first international business park in the outskirts of Moscow (Krylatsky Hills Business Park). Increasing number of pre-lease and pre-sale deals as new international high quality development projects enter the market. Launch of new landmark office development projects (Ducat Place III, Hermitage Plaza). These buildings will set up new quality standards for international office projects in Moscow. Cooperation between developers and leading architects (American companies Swanke Hayden Connell Architects, Skidmore, Owings & Merrill Sq. m., k 120 100 80 60 40 20 CBD, Tverskaya-Prechistenka 0 New construction, 2004 CBD, Tverskaya-Sretenka CBD, Sretenka-Taganka CBD, Zamoskvorechye North North-East East South-East South South-West West North-West Class 02 Diagram 2 Class 05 46 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13Moscow Office Sector Supply In 2004, the construction and refurbishment of approximately 700,000 sq. m. of Class A and B office space was completed. Whereas between 1999 and 2002, Class A offices accounted for 15ｨC33% of new construction, in 2003 they made up 50% of the added stock. In 2004, the proportion of newly constructed Class A office space decreased to 35% (this is due to later than expected delivery dates for some major projects scheduled in 2004). As much as 46% of all office space commissioned in 2004 was in the Central Business District, which is 28% lower than the previous year. Table 1. Major office buildings completed in 2004 Property Class Office rentable area, sq. m. Russian Railways Headquarters, 41/43 B. Spasskaya Ul. 02 45,000 Cherry Tower, 56 Profsoyuznaya Ul. 05 42,000 Legion-I, 40 B. Ordynka Ul. 02 26,000 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 05 25,000 Country Park, 19 Panfilova Ul., Khimki 05 16,800 Naberezhnaya Tower, Building A, Moscow City, Krasnopresnenskaya Nab. 02 15 000 Novodanilovsky Dom, 5 Varshavskoe Sh., Bldg. 8 05 12,400 29/22 1st Brestskaya Ul. 02 11,375 Aeroport Business Center, 6a 4th Ul. 8 Marta 05 11,200 Paveletsky Business Center, 6d 1st Kozhevnichesky Per. 05 10,300 Golden Age Business Center, 18ｨC20 3rd Yamskogo Polya Ul. 05 8,500 16ｨC18 Novoslobodskaya Ul. 02 8,383 Europa House, 11 Kolokolnikov Per. 02 7,870 39 Zatsepa Ul. 05 7,829 Pavlovsky Business Center, 7 Pavlovskaya Ul. 05 7,543 Table 2. Major office projects planned for completion in 2005 Property Class Office rentable area, sq. m. Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Buildings 02, 05, 05, D), 19 Krylatskaya Ul. 02 59,000 Avrora Business Park (Phase II), 82 Sadovnicheskaya Ul. 02 38,000 Capital Plaza on Lesnoy, 18 1st Lesnoy Per. 02 37,000 Pollars Business Center, 11 Derbenevskaya Ul. 05 36,830 Stanislavsky Center, 21 Mal. Kommunisticheskaya Ul. 05 34,838 Ducat Place III, 6 Gasheka Ul. 02 31,000 Naberezhnaya Tower, Building B, Moscow City, Krasnopresnenskaya Nab. 02 29,200 Central Tower, 22 Ovchinnikovskaya Nab. 02 19,912 9 Strastnoy Blvd. 02 12,600 Aquamarine, 28 Ozerkovskaya Nab. 02 11,300 Znamenka Complex (Phase I), 3ｨC7 Znamenka Ul. 02 10,107 Golutvinsky Stary Dvor, 4/4 Yakimanskaya Nab. 02 9,000 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 47
13Office Sector Moscow According to developers ｯ plans, in 2005 approximately 1,100,000 sq. m. of constructed or refurbished Class A and B office space will be completed. However, we consider that a number of office development projects (representing about 200,000 sq. m.) will not be completed on time. Demand The demand for Class A and B office space remains high. In 2004, the average net absorption * rate was approximately 500,000 sq. m. (for the past years this indicator varied from 300,000 to 500,000 sq. m.). In 2004, total take-up of Class A and B office space amounted to 670,000 sq. m. Diagram 3 Lease vs. Sale, 2004 Transactions Area taken-up 93% 7% 79% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Lease Sale In 2004, the number of sale deals slightly decreased and amounted to 7% of all transactions (compared to 10% in 2003). The proportion of sales in the total volume of transactions also decreased (from 30% in 2003 to 21% in 2004). city center, but within the Third Ring Road, increased from 15% in 2003 to 23% in 2004. In the leasing segment of the office market the most common requirement was for 250ｨC600 sq. m. offices at rates varying from $500 to 600 per sq. m./year (including operating expenses, net of VAT), i.e. for Class A and B1 office premises. 12% of client requests concerned office space purchase. In the acquisition market, the greatest requirement was for Class B office space of over 2,000 sq. m. at the price of $2,500 per sq. m. and higher. Vacancies In 2004, strong demand for Class A and B office space was covered by a high volume of new construction. Consequently, the weighted average vacancy rate for Class A and B office premises remained stable ｨC at 6.6%. It shifted from 4.5% to 5.1% for Class A buildings and from 7.5% to 10% for Class B. Tenant requests, lease (size) 13% 13% 19% Chart 2(a) Colliers International client inquiries showed, that in 2004, the demand for office space was still concentrated in the Central District (69% were looking for offices in the Central Business District). The share of clients considering locations outside the 15% Less than 150 sq. m. 151ｨC400 sq. m. 401ｨC800 sq. m. 40% Greater than 1,501 sq. m. 801ｨC1,500 sq. m. Chart1 Chart 2(b) Tenant requests, location Tenant requests, lease (rental rate) 23% 9% 68% 57% 2% 11% 30% CBD Third Ring Road Other locations Less than $350 $351ｨC450 $451ｨC550 Greater than $550 * Net absorption represents the change in the occupied stock in a market during the survey period (normally a year) or the amount of inventory or office units that become occupied during a specified period in a given market. The mothballed stock, i.e. floor space held vacant and not offered for rent, usually pending redevelopment or refurbishment, is excluded. 48 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13Moscow Office Sector Chart 3(a) Chart 3(b) Tenant requests, sale (size) Tenant requests, sale (price) 61% 3% 36% 19% 58% 23% 400ｨC1,000 sq. m. 1,001ｨC2,500 sq. m. Greater than 2,501 sq. m. Less than $2,000 $2,001ｨC2,500 Grater than $2,501 Diagram 4 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 4q., 2000 1q., 2001 Average vacancy rates Rental Rates/Sale Prices In 2004, rental rates for Class A and B offices slightly increased (3.5%) in nominal terms. Rental rates for some premises are denominated in Euro. Table 3 shows current rental rates for Class A and B office buildings. Sale prices vary widely depending on the location, physical condition, and commercial characteristics (accessibility, availability of parking, telephone lines, etc.) of the property. Acquisition of smaller office buildings is substantially more expensive than that of large office buildings or parts of such premises. 2q., 2001 3q., 2001 4q., 2001 1q., 2002 2q., 2002 3q., 2002 4q., 2002 1q., 2003 2q., 2003 3q., 2003 4q., 2003 1q., 2004 2q., 2004 3q., 2004 4q., 2004 $/sq. m./year 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Class B Class A Table 3. Rental rates Class Asking rental rates, $/sq. m./year, net of VAT, incl. operating expenses A 550ｨC750 051 450ｨC550 052 380ｨC450 Table 4. Asking sale prices Class Asking sale prices, $/sq. m. A 3,500ｨC5,000, mansions up to 6,000 05 1,500ｨC3,500, mansions up to 4,500 Prices for Class A and B office space are on the rise, driven by its shortage and increasing recognition of real estate as an investment asset with capitalization rates falling by 3 to 4 percentage points over the last three years. Average rental rates (incl. operating expenses, net of VAT) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 F 2006 F Class 02 Class 05 Diagram 5 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 49
13Office Sector Moscow Table 5. Significant transactions, 2004 Tenant / Buyer Property Class Rentable area, sq. m. SIBUR 16 Krzhizhanovskogo Ul., Bldg. 3 05 / acquisition 16,197 SIBUR 16 Krzhizhanovskogo Ul., Bldg. 1 05 / acquisition 5,530 VIP-Bank 12/2ｨC3 Bol. Gruzinskaya Ul. 05 / acquisition 4,877 Bank of Moscow 4 Brodnikov Per. 05 / acquisition 4,444 Russia Insurance Company 3/3 Prospect Mira B / acquisition 4,269 Zarubezhneftegaz Novodanilovsky Dom 05 / acquisition 2,400 Industrial Saving Bank Aeroport Business Center 05 / acquisition 2,020 Intel Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building D) 02 10,863 MTS 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 B 7,940 BAT Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building B) 02 7,009 Severstaltrans Central Tower, 22 Ovchinnikovskaya Nab. 02 6,500 Gazprombank 16 Raushskaya Nab. 02 6,400 IBM Naberezhnaya Tower (Building A) A 6,386 Microsoft Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building A) 02 6,059 SUEK 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 B 6,000 ING Bank Amber Plaza 02 5,443 TNK-BP Management 10 Arbat Ul. A 5,130 Renaissance Insurance 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 B 5,080 Non-profit partnership 02ｨｪS World Trade Center II 02 4,524 HFS Vlakra Business Center 05 4,000 Emerson 10 Letnikovskaya Ul., Bldg. 2 B 3,528 Exxon Mobil 31 Novinsky Blvd. 02 3,428 CSFB Romanov Dvor II 02 3,347 Sun Interbrew Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building A) 02 3,300 Siemens Management Infrastructure 11/10 Letnikovskaya Ul. 05 3,038 Regus Avrora Business Park (Phase II) 02 2,833 Aton Investments 17 Chistoprudny Blvd., Bldg. 1 02 2,812 GlavBukh Publishing House 23 Bol. Novodmitrovskaya Ul. B 2,800 2005ｨC2006 Forecast New construction and refurbishment 6,0 Total stock and new construction Diagram 6 New construction and refurbishment of an estimated 900,000 sq. m. for 2005 and 1,300,000 sq. m. for 2006. Demand In 2005ｨC2006, the demand for international quality standard office space is expected to remain high or will even slightly increase, with a net absorption rate Mln sq. m. 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 F 2006 F Total stock (beginning of the year) New construction 50 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13Moscow Office Sector at 600,000ｨC700,000 sq. m. per year. The demand for lease of 5,000+ sq. m. offices is expected to increase. Vacancies In 2005ｨC2006, the high level of new construction will boost the average weighted vacancy rate for Class A and B offices (the vacancy rate will average 6ｨC12% depending on the property class). Avrora Business Park (Phase II) Rental rates Rental rates for Class A and B offices will remain at their current levels. The rates will continue to vary by floor, the higher floors being more expensive because they provide a better view. Capital Plaza on Lesnoy RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 51
13Warehouse Sector Moscow Warehouse Sector W arehousing remains the youngest and the fastest growing sector of the Russian commercial real estate market. Positive trends in the Russian economy, soaring demand for international standard warehouse facilities, along with the high rental rates (as compared to warehouse markets in most European countries) make warehouse development in Russia very attractive to both local and international industrial developers. Diagram 7 Industrial Park). Up to 70% of all international quality warehouse space, delivered to the market in 2004, was developed and then occupied by 3PL logistic operators ｨC National Logistic Company, Belaya Dacha Market, FM Logistic and a few others. Approximately 150,000ｨC300,000 sq. m. of international standard warehouse space is scheduled for delivery in 2005 as speculative development. Demand Mln people; mln sq. m. 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 International quality warehouse supply Los Angeles Frankfurt Hong Kong London Moscow City & suburbia population (mln people) Quality warehouse supply (mln sq. m.) Sq. m. per 1,000 people 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sq. m. per 1,000 people The demand for international standard warehouse space remains high and mostly comes from: 3PL; local and international retailers; manufacturers and importers of FMCG and foods; manufacturers and importers of IT, home appliances, construction materials and other similar goods. Supply The total supply of quality warehouse facilities in Moscow and the Moscow Region is estimated at approximately 1,000,000 sq. m., whereof 450,000 sq. m. meets the international quality standards. About 230,000 sq. m. of the international quality warehouse space was delivered in 2004, 80% of which were built for owner occupation. The 2004 warehouse market development trends will continue and shape the market dynamics in 2005 and onwards. A number of large development projects (e. g., Logopark of Belaya Dacha and Bouygues), scheduled for 2004, were delayed as a result of the difficulties the developers had faced. Industrial parks concept becomes popular (e. g., such projects as Istra Technopark of Kulon and Domodedovo We do not expect any decrease in demand for international quality warehouse facilities in the next several years. At present, the combined (immediate and latent) demand for quality warehouse space is estimated at 500,000ｨC1,000,000 sq. m. Rental Rates In 2004, the rental rates for international quality warehouse facilities remained unchanged, ranging from $140 to $160 per sq. m. per annum (net of VAT). Rents for lower quality premises were between $90 and $120 per sq. m. per annum (net of VAT) including service charges, which cover property management, security, technical maintenance but do not include utilities. If all warehouse development projects announced for 2005ｨC2006 are delivered, rental rents are expected to slightly decrease. 52 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13Moscow Warehouse Sector Land The development of warehouse properties is mainly held back by the non-transparency of land market and by the acute shortage of land suitable for industrial development. However, Federal Government tries to ease the land legislation and thus to ensure gradual land market maturation. In accordance with Chapter 146 of the new Tax Code, starting from January 1, 2005 VAT will not be applicable to land sales transactions in the secondary market, which might have a positive effect on the warehousing market. Intercomplex Warehouse Park, Klimovsk, Moscow Region In 2004, industrial land prices increased by 10ｨC30% and were in the range of $250,000ｨC$350,000 per hectare (net of VAT). These prices do not include any improvements which may run up to 60% of the land price. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 53
13Retail Sector Moscow Retail Sector T hroughout 2004, Russia ｯs major macroeconomic indicators continued to grow. This trend, which has persisted since 1999, provided a favorable market environment for the development of all segments of the commercial real estate market. According to the Moscow Municipal Committee for Statistics (Mosgorkomstat) consumer goods sales through all distribution channels (in comparable prices) grew by approximately 8.4% in 2004. Also in 2004, the yearon-year catering turnover increased (in comparable prices) by 6.1%. Table 6 Major macroeconomic indicators * Retail sales, $ mln 42,124.0 percentage change, year-on-year 108.4 Nominal per capita income (end of 2004), $ 381.0 percentage change, year-on-year 120.1 Real per capita income percentage change, year-on-year 107.6 Shopping Centers. Supply and Demand In 2004, the shopping center sector of the Moscow commercial real estate market developed at a high pace. The growth rate was sustained both in the number of shopping centers and total space. This shows the propensity of retail property developments to attract investment. Diagram 8 Total space, sq. m. k 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Dynamics of shopping centers space ** 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 F Dynamics of high-quality retail space Total stock of high-quality retail space Diagram 8 shows the dynamics of retail space between 1998 and 2004, and the forecast for 2005. In 1999, the decline in construction was caused by the 1998 financial crisis. After 1999, intensive growth was observed (reaching its peak in 2002 with the appearance of several large properties, including MEGA-I and Atrium). In the coming year we expect that shopping center space will grow considerably. According to some sources, it will reach approximately 800,000 sq. m. (or about 450,000 sq. m. of gross leasable area). In 2004, retail space grew substantially compared to the previous year (see Diagram 8). By the end of 2004, the total area of operating shopping centers in Moscow reached 2.5 mln sq. m. with 11 large retail facilities that were introduced to the market (see Table 7). Space distribution in malls (see Table 8) is contingent on the requirements of the shopping center concept. However, the tenant mix is influenced by the demand of potential tenants. The analysis of potential tenants ｯ applications shows that the clothing store space (see Table 9) is still the most demanded. It is remarkable that the combined share of three most demanded segments (clothing, catering, beauty and health) covers about half of all applications. Shopping Centers. Rental Rates In general, rental rates for shopping center space have not considerably changed over the last period. However, the following trends can be observed in certain segments. During the first half of 2004, demand and rental rates for cinema space stabilized. This trend followed a multiplex construction boom driven by the enormous demand for * Source: Mosgorkomstat ** Source: Colliers International 54 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13Moscow Retail Sector Table 7. Major shopping centers opened in 2004 * Name Address Total space, Anchor tenants Date of sq. m. opening Vesna 19 Novy Arbat Ul., Bldg. 1 12,300 Constellation 22-Feb Articoli (Bosco di Ciliegi) Alexander Land 22 Prishvina Ul. 19,700 Paterson, Eldorado, 4-Mar Detsky Mir BUM 43 Pererva Ul., Bldg. 1 31,000 Sedmoy Kontinent, 12-Mar Detsky Mir Novinsky Passage 31 Novinsky Blvd. 16,000 Ramstore 8-Apr Auchan Krasnogorsk 11 Chetvyorty Myakininsky Pr-d 20,000 Auchan 12-May Mosmart, M.Video, Waypark MKAD 71 km 71,000 SportMaster, 30-Jul Starik Hottabych Mosmart 116d Dmitrovskoe Sh. 26,000 Mosmart, M.Video 16-Sep L-153 153 Lyublinskaya Ul. 62,000 Auchan, Eldorado 3-Nov Perekryostok, Sun Paradise 6 Borovskoye Sh. 11,700 Technosila, 7-Dec Arbat Prestige MEGA II Khimki, District 8 270,000 IKEA, Auchan, OBI, Stockmann 15-Dec 5th Avenue 32 Marshala Biryuzova Ul. 44,000 Perekryostok, 25-Dec Cinema Park movie theatres. By the end of the year, rental rates inched up again as new operators entered the market. In some cases, rental rates in the catering segment grew, driven by severe competition. Rental rates decline can be observed for gifts and souvenirs outlets. This comes as a result of the fall in demand for space in shopping centers targeting middle-class consumers. Table 8. Approximate distribution of space in malls* Segment Share of space, % Size range, sq. m. Staples 28.7 1,500ｨC15,000 Clothing 18.0 25ｨC950 Entertainment 14.8 25ｨC4,000 Catering/Food-court 9.5 20ｨC600 Electronic goods 3.7 20ｨC2,500 Sport and leisure 3.4 30ｨC500 Footwear 3.4 40ｨC400 Accessories 3.3 10ｨC130 Health and beauty 3.3 10ｨC400 Household goods 2.4 30ｨC500 Children ｯs goods 2.3 50ｨC300 Printed media 2.1 200ｨC500 Other 5.1 In a mild-competitive environment, rental rates by segments for standard-size units in malls are described in the table 10. Street Retail. Supply and Demand 2004 witnessed a significant growth of the aggregate space supply spurred by the reconstruction of premises located on the ground floors of the existing apartment buildings and by addition of retail components to new residential developments, or even by the High Street retail boom. Substantial improvement in the efficiency of space utilization (development of underground floors, second floors, and mezzanines), as well as involvement of non-retail space of administrative and other buildings was typical for the central districts. As in previous years, new construction is virtually absent. It is obvious that opportunities for such increase in supply will be depleted soon, and that the rare new developments will not have much impact on the market. * Source: Colliers International RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 55
13Retail Sector Moscow Table 9. Breakdown of demand by segments* Segment Share of applications, Required space, sq. m. % MinｨCmax Average Clothing 29.0 10ｨC3,000 157 Catering/Food-court 11.9 3ｨC1,000 170 Health and beauty 7.9 7ｨC1,400 105 Automotive goods 6.6 30ｨC3,000 801 DIY (do-it-yourself) 6.5 15ｨC7,000 3,508 Entertainment 6.3 3ｨC3,000 380 Children ｯs goods 5.8 16ｨC3,000 210 Electronic goods 4.3 7ｨC1,500 121 Sport and leisure 3.2 15ｨC2,000 287 Accessories 2.5 2ｨC200 43 Services 2.4 0.5ｨC200 38 Furniture 2.4 10ｨC500 218 Footwear 2.3 40ｨC400 105 Printed media 2.1 4ｨC500 140 Other 6.8 Table 10. Distribution of rental rates by segments * Segment Size range, sq. m. Rental rate, $/sq. m./year Anchor tenants Hypermarket 5,000ｨC15,000 70ｨC150 Supermarket 1,500ｨC3,000 200ｨC250 Electronic goods 1,200ｨC2,500 250ｨC350 Sport and leisure 600ｨC1,500 200ｨC450 Clothing 600ｨC1,200 250ｨC900 Entertainment 250ｨC4,000 50ｨC250 Household goods 400ｨC700 300ｨC1000 Children ｯs goods 1,000ｨC3,000 150ｨC400 Other tenants Clothing 30ｨC500 900ｨC2,500 Footwear 50ｨC120 800ｨC1,200 Sport and leisure 50ｨC300 450ｨC1,200 Health and beauty 40ｨC300 600ｨC1,800 Household goods 30ｨC100 800ｨC1,800 Children ｯs goods 40ｨC1,000 450ｨC1,500 Mobile and digital equipment 20ｨC80 3,500ｨC5,000 Accessories 20ｨC70 1,500ｨC4,000 Gift and souvenir shops 20ｨC100 1,000ｨC3,000 Catering/Food-court 20ｨC80 700ｨC1,200 Services 10ｨC100 300ｨC1,150 * Source: Colliers International 56 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13Moscow Retail Sector Besides the influence of the favorable macroeconomic environment mentioned above, the level and dynamics of demand were also determined by the following factors: dynamic expansion of retail chains (grocery chains, drug stores, retail banking, coffee shops, etc.); further development of brand and boutique trade (significant for High Street retail); significant increase in the number of catering operators (restaurants, cafes, coffee shops, etc.); increase in the competitive pressure of professional shopping centers, which affects mainly street retail properties located outside High Streets; growth in the number of flagship stores set up with the purpose of brand promotion; tenants ｯ willingness for considerable investments into fit-out of retail space ｨC extension of the period of leasehold acquisition. On the whole, in 2004 the demand for the High Street retail space was high, which is confirmed by the low vacancy rates ｨC from 0% to 5%. Street Retail. Rental Rates and Sale Prices The major factors influencing the rental rates and sale prices are location and physical characteristics of the space (usable area, ceiling height, etc.). Simultaneously, the number of comparable leasehold, and especially, freehold acquisitions, is too insignificant to describe the dynamics of rates and prices reliably. The data presented in Diagram 9 is indicative and reflects the highest rates and sale prices for the premises located in the main shopping streets of the city based on the 2004 transactions. The growth of these indicators is stimulated by a considerable fall in the purchasing power of the US dollar (more than 30% over the last two years) ｨC the currency commonly used to set rates and prices. Our analysis shows that over the last year the rental rates for premises located in the main shopping streets have generally grown by approximately 10%. The investment market can be divided into two segments: sales to end-users and investment sales. Capitalization rates vary from 10 to 12% for sales to end-users and for investment sales they represent 15%. Emergence of New Retail Concepts The first delicatessen store in Russia ｨC Fauchon ｨC was opened in Moscow in October. A new player entered the Russian clothing market ｨC C&A, the German-and-Belgian company specializing in the clothes for middle-class consumers. It rented space in shopping center Mega-II in Khimki, near Moscow. The first Russian Boyner department store owned by the largest Turkish company in the non-food retail market was opened in Mega-II. British House department stores were opened in Moscow again ｨC in Mega-I, Mega-II and Dvoriansky House. The second largest German retailer Rewe is entering the Russian market by opening Billa food supermarkets. Forecast for 2005. Shopping Centers First significant sales transactions to shopping center investments are expected. The volume of financing retail development projects is expected to increase. The number of construction projects involving international architectural companies will increase. Construction projects of super-regional shopping centers on the MKAD (similar to Mega-I and Mega-II) will be developed. New international brands are expected to enter the market. As the number of professional retail properties grows, weakly conceptualized projects will suffer in profitability. Significant projects in the commercial real estate market of large Russian cities are to be launched. In the Russian regions retail space in shopping centers will grow at a rate higher than that of Moscow. Increase in competition among retailers, particularly, supermarket operators, electronics stores, cinemas, mobile accessories stores, catering (food-court) is expected. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 57
13Retail Sector Moscow Diagram 9 Rental rates and sale prices for premises on main retail corridors* Tverskaya Ul. 0 sale price 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 N. Arbat Ul. (left side) Arbat Ul. 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya Ul. Kutuzovsky Pr. Garden Ring Leninsky Pr. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 rental rate Rental rate, $/sq. m./year (excluding operating expenses, net of VAT) Sale price, $/sq. m. (net of VAT) Forecast for 2005. Street Retail Stabilization of supply of premises located along the main retail corridors. High level of tenants ｯ turnover in the prime retail properties. Possibly, appearance of boutique zones. Increase in the number of transactions related to the acquisitions of properties by end-users. Further increase in demand for retail space from retail chains and brands. Rental rates will be determined partially by the decline in the US dollar purchasing power and the increase in the available shopping center stock. * Source: Colliers International 58 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13ST. PETERSBURG
13Investment St. Petersburg Investment A ccording to the administration of St. Petersburg, in 2004, foreign investments in the city ｯs economy increased by 40% and reached $900 mln. Most investments came from the USA (28%), Cyprus (14%), the United Kingdom (11%), Finland (11%), and the Netherlands (9%). Direct investments amounted to 13% of total foreign investments. By way of encouraging investments in the city, Administration introduced new income and property tax benefits in 2004. Simultaneously new additions to the Law on Tax Privileges were made. Besides, aiming to foster the development of industrial areas and the infrastructure and also to facilitate investments, the St. Petersburg city government established the City Industrial Investments Agency. Moody's raised the long-term rating of St. Petersburg to Baa3. Standard & Poor's and Fitch approved the ratings of BB and BB+, respectively. Several further large-scale industrial investment projects were initiated: telecommunications plant by Elcoteq ｨC $100 mln; vodka production plant by Russian Standard ｨC $25 mln; processing and warehouse complex by Pepsi Bottling Group ｨC $20 mln; production plant extension by Petersburg Products International (trade mark Gillette) ｨC $20 mln. All these projects are to be completed in 2005. In 2004 the first real estate investment trusts appeared in St. Petersburg. The largest of them were: the Russian Residential Real Estate and Interregional Real Estate Fund established by CIT (investments into commercial and residential property in Moscow and other regions); Residential Real Estate established by the Industry and Construction Bank; The First Petersburg Fund of Direct Real Estate Investments (investments into Narvsky Business Center); Nevo-Invest (development of production facilities of Nevo-Tabak) established by the asset management company Svinin and Partners. The City sold its controlling interests in hotels Vyborgskaya, Yuzhnaya, Kiyevskaya, Tourist and Chaika. Total investments amounted to $18 mln. Further auctions are planned for next year with a view of selling the City ｯs shares in hotels Pulkovskaya, Pribaltiyskaya, Astoria, Oktyabrskaya, Moskva and Deson-Ladoga. The procedures of transferring the right to rent land for construction purposes were facilitated: the Investment-Tender Commission was replaced by a short-package trade mechanism, which requires fewer documents. This makes the procedures less cumbersome, but the information provided about the land is insufficient, which requires a full-package trade mechanism to be launched in 2005. 60 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13St. Petersburg Investment Table 1. Major investment projects completed in 2004 Project Size, sq. m. Investor/Developer Investments, $ mln Retail Gulliver Shopping & Office Center 62,000 Dubl-2 50 PIK Shopping Center 32,200 PetroMir 35 Mercury Shopping Center (3rd and 4th phases) 49,400 Adamant 30 O'Key Hypermarket 32,000* Dorinda Holding 20.5 Lenta-6 Cash & Carry 13,400 Lenta Cash & Carry 20 Nord Shopping Center (2nd phase) 26,700 Adamant, AORS 16 DIY Store Maksidom-4 Store 19,000 Maksidom 15 Lenta-5 Cash & Carry 20,000 Lenta Cash & Carry 15 Ozerki Shopping Center 16,000 Adamant 14 Office centers Nevsky, 38 14,700 ICBank 45 Renaissance House 8,150 Renaissance Construction 5 Industrial objects and warehouses Furniture production plant n/a Pervaya Mebelnaya Fabrika 20 Food production plant 24,000 Baltimor 12 * Incl. underground parking ｨC 14,000 sq. m. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 61
13Office Sector St. Petersburg Office Sector I n 2004, the office market registered slower growth. About 40,000 of 120,000 sq. m. of new office space was commissioned in this period. The opening of several business centers was postponed from the end of 2004 to Q1 2005. Supply By the end of 2004, office space in St. Petersburg represented 740,000 sq. m. As in the previous period, the supply increased due to the construction of Class B office centers (67% of total new construction). Compared to 2003, the office market structure (by classes) did not change. Diagram 1 Rentable office areas, sq. m. k 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Class A Distribution and growth of office center space in 2004 Class 02 Class 05 Class 05 Increase at the beginning of 2004 Increase in 2004 In 2004, two new Class A business centers were opened: Geneum and Nevsky, 38 (see Table 2). In 2005, over 25,000 sq. m will be introduced in the market (see Table 3). Accordingly, by the end of 2005 Class A office space is expected to increase by 75%. Rental rates for Class A office space slightly rose (about 5%). Supply rates range from $470 to $620 per sq. m. (net of VAT, including operating expenses). Class B Seven new business centers totaling 30,000 sq. m. were introduced to the market. Rental rates for Class B space vary from $260 to $480 per sq. m. (net of VAT, including operating expenses). In 2004, rental rates increased by 6%. Class C Average vacancy rates and rental rates (Class B) 19% 285 305 9% 320 Currently the office space market is dominated by Class C buildings (about 71%). However in 2004 only one business center of this class was commissioned (see Table 2). Quoted rental rates for Class C business centers range from $160 to $290 per sq. m. (net of VAT, including operating expenses). In 2004, the rental rates grew by 7%. 330 5% 5% 350 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Vacancy rates, % 6% Proposed rental rates, $/year Diagram 3 Diagram 2 Diagram 4 Average vacancy rates and rental rates (Class A) Average vacancy rates and rental rates (Class C) 53% 492 508 520 550 14% 180 9% 212 212 229 434 17% 7% 3% 1% 139 5% 4% 5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Vacancy rates, % Proposed rental rates, $/year Vacancy rates, % Asking rental rates, $/year 62 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13St. Petersburg Office Sector Demand Demand for office space in general remains high, due to the interest of large Russian and foreign companies for Class A and B+ offices, to premises totaling 100ｨC450 sq. m. and to large office blocks exceeding 500 sq. m. In Class B and C segments the highest demand is for office premises of 50ｨC150 sq. m. Forecast In 2005, developers plan to introduce approximately 170,000 sq. m. of office space to the market (about 80% of it will be Class B offices). A relative balance between supply and demand will be maintained. A surge in supply is most unlikely. A minor increase in rental rates (5ｨC8%) is expected, but taking into account the inflation Table 2. Business Centers, St. Petersburg (December, 2004) Rentable Occupancy, Offer rates, $/sq. m. Project Address office space, % (O05 incl., sq. m. VAT excl.) Class A Nevsky, 38* 38 Nevsky Pr. 4,500 100 400ｨC500 Northern Capital House 36 Nab. Reki Moyki 8,000 100 620 Atrium 25 Nevsky Pr. 5,300 100 500ｨC620 Swedish House 1/3 02al. Konyushennaya Ul. 3,100 100 600 Geneum* 10 Nevsky Pr. 1,600 90 550 White Nights House 23 02al. Morskaya Ul. 6,200 100 500 Karavannaya, 10 10 Karavannaya Ul. 6,000 100 n/a Class B Petrovsky Fort 4 Finliandsky Pr. 16,300 98 380ｨC410 City-Center 18 Petrogradskaya Nab. 25,000 100 280ｨC400 Mir 4 Yefimova Ul. 9,000 100 380ｨC400 Renaissance House* 17 2nd Sovetskaya Ul. 5,200 96 380ｨC400 Goldex 36 Shpalernaya Ul. 7,400 100 350 Europa House 1 Artilleriyskaya Ul. 10,700 98 350 Yelizavetinsky 14 13th Linija Vasiljevskogo Ostrova 7,000 100 330 Senator* 1 Kropotkina Ul. 5,000 99 330 Akvatoriya 61 Vyborgskaya Nab. 15,500 100 280-325 Admiral* 118 Nab. Obvodnogo Kanala 6,500 80 320 Neptun 93a Nab. Obvodnogo Kanala 6,000 99 320 Pallada 2 Krasnogvardeyskaya Pl. 5,400 99 280-300 TV-Polis 6 Chapigina Ul. 6,000 99 280 Bely Ostrov 64 Serdobolskaya Ul. 5,600 98 270 Chernaya Rechka (phase I) 22 Beloostrovskaya Ul. 5,000 95 210 Class 05 Farvater 7 Vvedenskogo Kanala Ul. 5,500 100 305 Admiraltejsky 35 Bol. Morskaya Ul. 5,200 98 284 Sampsonyevsky DTs 32 Bol. Sampsonyevsky Pr. 8,200 99 220 Evrika 11 Sedova Ul. 25,000 90 215 Avrora-City (phase I)* 4 Shaumyana Pr. 2,900 90 190 * Business centers commissioned in 2004 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 63
13Office Sector St. Petersburg and the exchange rate trends, it may in fact amount to a slight decrease. Occupancy rates will remain high. Business centers will be constructed as part of multifunctional complexes combining retail, hotel and entertainment facilities (Platinum; 38 Nevsky; River House; Golitsin). Demand for large offices (over 1,000 sq. m.) will stay high. Demand for purchasing offices will increase. The construction of new business centers (including Class A, B+ business centres) will shift from the historical city center to newly developed business areas. Table 3. Business centers to be opened in 2005 Rentable Offer rates, Project Address Class office space, $/sq. m. (OC incl., sq. m. VAT excl.) Severnaya Stolitsa (phase II) 3 Volinsky Per. 02 6,000 620 Veda-House 18 Petrogradskaya Nab. 02 8,000 600 Senator 1 Chaykovskogo Ul. 02 6,000 560 Senator 10 Sadovaya Ul. 02 3,500 560 Platinum 30 Bol. Morskaya Ul. 02 2,600 520 Austrian Business Center 4 Orenburgskaya Ul. 02ｨC05 10,700 (total) 360 Senator 15 Chapayeva Ul. 05+ 5,000 410 Fenix 4 Sverdlovskaya Nab. 05+ 5,000 390 Constanta 153 Leninsky Pr. 05+ 7,800 350 Admiral (phase II) 118 Obvodnogo Kanala Nab. 05+ 6,000 350 River-House (phase II) 5 Akademika Pavlova Ul. 05+ 17,000 325 Sheremetyev 47 Stachek Pr. 05 12,900 270 ｨｪ-4 12 Sedova Ul. 05 16,500 270-ｨC305-13b Levashovsky Pr. 05 11,200 Shpalernaya, 54 54 Shpalernaya Ul. 05+ 6,500 Sales: 1,600ｨC1,800 76ｦ0 14th Linija Vasiljevskogo Ostrova 05 9,500 Sales: 1,565ｨC1,760-33 Kolomiazhsky Pr. 05 8,000 Sales: 850 Table 4. Major lease transactions, 2004 Tenant Address/Project Class Size, sq. m. Skanska 9 Blokhina Ul./Kronverk B 6,000 Motorola 12 Sedova Ul./ｨｪ-4 05 5,000 Svarog Group 1 Petrovskaya Kosa Ul. /Petrovsky 05 2,000 IntelliJ Labs 2 Kantemirovskaya Ul./Times 05 1,400 Banque Societe Generale Vostok 17 2nd Sovetskaya Ul./Renaissance House 05+ 1,100 SPM 25 Nevsky Pr./Atrium 02 560 Citibank 15 Italyanskaya Ul. 05 530 (extension) Outo Kumpu 15 Chapayeva Ul./Senator 05+ 350 Vneshneftekhim 37 Reki Moyki Nab./Northern Capital 02 320 Canon 36 Reki Moyki Nab./Northern Capital 02 220 Fortum 25 Nevsky Pr./Atrium 02 120 DHL 10 Nevsky Pr./Geneum 02 110 64 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13St. Petersburg Warehouse Sector Warehouse Sector T he growth of the industrial production and trade as well as steady expansion of retail chains ｨC both local and international ｨC encourage constant increase of demand for modern warehouse facilities whose acute shortage is currently recorded. In 2004, the St. Petersburg Government passed a resolution on setting up five new industrial/ warehouse zones totaling 3,700 ha in the following suburbs: Shushary-2, Metallostroy-2, Konnaya Lakhta, Predportovaya-3, Noydorf-Strelna. Land use planning and management in these territories will be carried out at the expense of the city. A recent trend is to set up high-technology centers, i. e. professionally managed industrial parks. Supply Supply is mainly represented by the facilities of former industrial zones that do not completely meet the tenants ｯ requirements. The majority of premises (above 40% of total supply) are leased for $50ｨC70/sq. m. annually (incl. VAT and operating expenses). In St. Petersburg quality warehouse facilities of international standards amount to approximately 115,000 sq. m. (Interterminal, Okhta-Terminal, JFC terminal, etc.). 45 ha of new industrial zone Noydorf-Strelna ready for the development (after land use planning and management procedures have been completed) will be put up for sale in 2005. Acute shortage of production and warehouse facilities totaling over 3,000 sq. m. is observed. The number of sale/lease applications for industrial/warehouse facilities located in the suburbs of St. Petersburg, 10 km away from the city boundary, is increasing. Tenants ｯ requirements become more exacting. Tenants prefer to receive full package of additional services, such as customs clearance, record keeping, material handling services, etc. Rental Rates and Sale Prices The average increase in rental rates for warehouse facilities varies from 13% to 17%. Changes are mostly related to the international quality warehouse facilities. Rental rates for Class A facilities may exceed $160 per sq. m. per annum. Rental rates for the average class heated space are at the level of $80ｨC100 per sq. m. per annum. Rental rates for low quality unheated premises ｨC are $10ｨC50 per sq. m. per annum. The average price of industrial/warehouse facilities for sale is $200ｨC400 per sq. m. and the price for international quality facilities is within the range of $700ｨC1,000 per sq. m. Sale prices for industrial CIP facilities vary from $150 to $300 per sq. m. Sale prices for warehouse facilities with a similar level of infrastructure development in the Leningrad Region (no more than 10 km away from the city boundary) are 20ｨC25% lower than those in St. Petersburg. Okhta Terminal. Class A warehouse Demand The highest demand is for 500ｨC1,500 sq. m. warehouse facilities, primarily among small and medium Russian companies. The demand for larger facilities (of 2,000ｨC6,000 sq. m.) remains high among international and large local retailers, as well as logistics companies. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 65
13Warehouse Sector St. Petersburg Forecast Increasing demand for international quality warehouse facilities as a result of the growing interest in the St. Petersburg market on the part of foreign and local investors. Constant growth of the number of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the suburbs of St. Petersburg due to the scheduled launch of the next section of the ring road and to the establishment of new industrial zones. Increasing demand for specialized warehouses (such as refrigerating facilities). Rental rates for international standard facilities will not change. A decrease in demand for low quality warehouse premises and facilities requiring no state registration, neither the right of use or possession. Table 5. Existing and perspective class A warehouses and logistic complexes Name Location Useful area, Developer / sq. m. Initiator Existing Interterminal Parnas 45,000 Group Inkotek Warehouse Parnas 32,000 Laverna JFC company terminal 60 Sofiyskaya Ul. 17,000 Joint Fruit Corporation Okhta-Terminal Energetikov Pr. 13,000 Megalogistic Utkina Zavod 104/41 Oktiabrskaya Nab. 10,000 Craftrise Markitantov group Perspective Logistic center Gorelovo 75,000 Astros Logistic center Logistic center Kubinskaya Ul. 50,000 Group Inkotek Logistic center Shushari 14,000 PNK Logistics Logistic center Intersection of ring road and Vyborgskoye Sh. 10,000 MK PSB, Schenker Warehouse Shushari 10,000 Sunway Warehouse (phase I) Pulkovskoye Sh. 10,000 Tilman Kraus Property Container terminal Railway station Predportovaya 5,000 Group Evrosib Logistic center Industrial zone Metallostroy 3,000 Nevskiye krasky 66 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13St. Petersburg Retail Sector Retail Sector I n 2004, the retail and catering turnover reached approximately $7.4 bln (in 2003 ｨC $6 bln), whereof the catering turnover was $350 mln (in 2003 ｨC $250 mln). Supply In 2004, approximately 320,000 sq. m. of retail space were introduced to the market. At the end of 2004, the total area of large retail facilities 1 amounted to 1.2 mln sq. m. (see Diagram 5). Diagram 5 Tatal area, sq. m. k 1 750 1 500 1 250 1 000 750 500 250 0 Increase in the areas of the large retail facilities 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 f At the beginning of the year Increase About 60 large shopping centers are operating and more than 30 facilities are under construction or reconstruction. As far as the supply of operating retail facilities is concerned, the Primorsky, Vyborgsky and Central districts are leading. The highest level of construction activity is taking place in the Vyborgsky, Moscovsky and Primorsky districts. The market structure of large retail facilities (by area) as of the end of 2004 is presented in Chart 1. Adamant Holding Company is the leader among professional retail centers developers. Demand In 2004, the highest demand was for 50ｨC100 sq. m. units located in retail centers. As of the end of 2004, vacancy rates in most shopping centers were 5ｨC10%. Rental rates and Sale Prices In 2004, the rental rates for retail spaces located in shopping centers did not change. The practice of selling tenant rights to such spaces gradually disappeared. Shopping center facilities are primarily sold to anchor tenants, i.e. food operators, household appliances and electronics, multiplexes. Sale prices vary from $800 to $1,500 per sq. m. Significant Events The Turkish company Ramenka opened its first Ramstore supermarket in St. Petersburg. The supermarket is located in the Gulliver Center (Staraya Derevnia metro station); its retail area totals 4,000 sq. m. In 2005, the same company is planning to open two more supermarkets located in the retail centers, as well as its own shopping and entertainment center at Kolomiazhsky Pr. Kesko signed a protocol of intent to purchase a controlling share in Stroymaster, a construction and refurbishment group (Tex Holding Company). These investors are planning to develop their own network named K-Rauta (DIY) in association with the Saint-Petersburg outlet. Table 6. Rental rates for anchor tenants in shopping centers Commodity groups Average area, sq. m. Rates, $/sq. m./year Foods: supermarket 1,000ｨC4,000 144ｨC300 hypermarket 5,000ｨC15,000 120ｨC180 Home appliances 1,000ｨC4,000 216ｨC360 Sports and entertainment goods 1,000ｨC1,600 240ｨC360 Clothing, Footwear 1,000ｨC3,500 204ｨC480 Books, Audio and Video products 1,000 180ｨC240 Entertainment and recreation 500ｨC7,000 120ｨC216 1 Retail facilities are considered large if their area totals 4,000 sq. m. or more. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 67
13Retail Sector St. Petersburg Chart 1 Market structure of active large retail facilities (by area), end of 2004 10% 12% 8% Moscow companies, such as Paterson, Sportmaster, M-Video and Perekryostok, extended their presence in the St. Petersburg market to respectively 9, 8, 5 and 4 outlets. The Detsky Mir group entered the market by opening 2 stores in the shopping malls. RosKinoProkat opened an eightscreen cinema complex in the PIK shopping center. Dorinda opened its fourth O ｯKey hypermarket with a total area of 15,000 sq. m. The hypermarket will be one of the anchor tenants in the future Primorsky shopping mall (Primorskoye Shosse/Planernaya Ul.). Lenta Cash & Carry opened two more stores increasing its network to 6 outlets within one year. The Company also signed a seven-year credit contract for $30 mln with European Bank of Reconstruction and Development to finance the opening of 3 or 4 cash & carry stores in St. Petersburg for 2005. Agrotorg opened in St. Petersburg its first hypermarket Karusel on Pr. Bolshevikov. Companies ｯ Plans 7% Specialized furniture shopping centers Cash & Carry Specialized shopping centers Hypermarkets Shopping centers 63% By 2005, Metro Cash & Carry is planning to open its third cash & carry store on Pulkovskoye Shosse. In first half of 2006, the Swedish company IKEA intends to open a MEGA shopping center close to the IKEA-Dibenko furniture store (Leningradskaya Oblast). The total investment for this project will reach approximately 250 mln. By 2007, OBI, the German DIY chain, is planning to open 4 stores in the southern part of St. Petersburg. The German chain of hypermarkets Real (part of METRO AG Group) announced it was entering the St. Petersburg market. The world ｯs leading retailer Wal-Mart announced the possible opening of a 20,000 sq. m. hypermarket (approximate total area) in St. Petersburg. In two years ｯ time, the British company Kingfisher is planning to open three or four Castorama stores (DIY) in St. Petersburg. The first store is scheduled to open at the beginning of 2006. The French Company Carrefour and the German discount chains Aldi and Lidl consider developing their retail network in St. Petersburg. Trends and Forecasts Further development of the St. Petersburg retail market under western operating companies, as well as the arrival of new international operators and developers. Increase of top level shopping malls. Improvement of the recreational part in shopping centers. Further development of retail chains (furniture centers developed by Furniture-City and Akvilon, O ｯKey hypermarkets, Lenta Cash & Carry outlets, etc.) by local companies. In 2005, the total space in large retail facilities may exceed 1.5 mln sq. m. Rental rates may fall in the less successful shopping centers; tenants might move to newer high-standard retail facilities. 68 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13St. Petersburg Retail Sector Table 7. Large retail facilities opened in 2004 Name Position Address Gulliver Multifunctional center (shopping, entertainment, business center) Staraya Derevnia m. st. Total area, sq. m. 38,800* Major tenants Ramstore, Intersport, Matritsa, Lukomorye, Mirazh Cinema movie theatre (two halls), Bowling Brunswick (ten tracks), Gulliver Park At. Park Karusel Hypermarket 32 Bolshevikov Pr. 9,500 Karusel Date of opening August- November, 2004 December, 2004 Kvartal Multifunctional center (shopping, business center, warehouses) Ligovsky Pr./ NovoRybinskaya Ul. 9,200** Piaterochka, Telemaks 2004 Lenta V Cash & 05arry 158 Tallinskoye Sh. 20,000 Lenta June, 2004 Lenta VI Cash & 05arry Vyborgskoye Sh./ Lunacharskogo Pr. 13,400 Lenta September, 2004 Maxidom IV Specialized shopping center 15 Bogatirsky Pr. 18,980 Maxidom October, 2004 Mebelny Continent ｨC Ist phase Specialized furniture shopping center 3 Varshavskaya Ul. 17,280 October, 2004 Mercury ｨC III, IVth phase Shopping and entertainment center 141 Savushkina Ul. 45,000 M.Video, SportMaster, Bowling Planet (20 tracks), Adamant, Great Furniture Center May- October, 2004 Nord ｨC IInd phase Shopping and entertainment center 19 Prosvescheniya Pr. 26,380 Ozerky Shopping center 120 Engelsa Pr. 16,000 O ｯKey IV PIK Hypermarket Shopping and entertainment center Primorskoye Sh./ Planernaya Ul. Sennaya Pl. 32,200 Kronverk Cinema Multiplex (six halls), Cosmic Bowling (24 tracks), Tranzas Technosila, Forum, Lukomorye 15,000 O ｯKey Perekrestok, Multiplex (8 halls, Roskinoprokat), Detsky Mir, Baltic Sport Spring- Summer, 2004 March, 2004 December, 2004 November, 2004 * Excl. business center premises ** Excl. business center and warehouse premises RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 69
13Residential Sector St. Petersburg Residential Sector A lthough St. Petersburg has no well-defined criteria for elite housing yet, minimum requirements have already been established. They include availability of certain facilities, high quality of construction and engineering systems, good layout, residential safety meeting international standards, and additional services (parking, garage, operating services, etc.). The major requirement for elite housing is location. The most expensive apartments are situated in Zone A, which is also called the Golden Triangle. It is bounded by the Neva (Dvortsovaya Nab., Admiralteyskaya Nab., partially Angliyskaya Nab. and Kutuzovskaya Nab.), Nevsky Prospect and the Fontanka River. Zone B traditionally includes the apartments located along Nevsky Prospect to the east of Fontanka, near the Tavrichesky Palace and the Mariinsky Theatre, as well as some streets and embankments of Petrogradskaya Storona. Elite residential property is also located on Krestovsky and Kamenny Islands (Sestroretsk, Pushkin, Pavlovsk) in the Gulf of Finland. Supply In 2004, the supply of elite housing grew mainly due to the construction of new property in the city center. New apartments outside the center are an increasingly attractive investment object due to their superior technical characteristics, as compared to the old buildings. Several construction projects are presented in Table 8. In 2004, the share of vacated communal apartments in the total supply continued to decrease. The reason was a rise in prices for residential real estate throughout the city, which led to an increase in the cost of apartment vacation. Unmarketable apartments are still not vacated. There is an acute shortage of elite housing for direct sale. Supply on the market of elite real estate located in the country increased due to construction of several cottage settlements classified as elite projects (see Table 9). Settlements of this kind should meet the following requirements: developed infrastructure and communications system; social homogeneity; location within 60 km from the city. On the whole, supply in the lease market exceeds demand, since many buyers of elite real estate purchase it for further leasing. The largest share of supply is held by apartments of about 100 sq. m. (1ｨC2 bedrooms). Table 8. Elite construction projects Date of commissioning apartments $/sq. m. Number of Price, Project Address Company 133 Nevsky Pr. Commissioned 21 3,500 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. Block 1 Robespyera Nab. Q4 2005 200 2,000ｨC3,000 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. 60 Shpalernaya Ul. Stage I ｨC Q3 2005 Stage II ｨC Q4 2005 n/a 3,000 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. 4 Bolshaya Morskaya Ul./ 49 Reki Moyki Nab. 58ｨC60 Kamennoostrovsky Pr. Q4 2004 18 7,000ｨC10,000 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. Q4 2006 24 2,200 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. House at sea 74 Martinova Nab. Q4 2007 200 Not for sale Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. 8a Vosstaniya Ul. Commissioned 35 3,250 Peterburgreconstruction Ltd. At the Rostralny Columns Intersection of Birzhevoy Per. and Birzhevaya Linija Q2 2006 208 2,800 LenSpetsSMU JSC New Star 14 Pesochnaya Nab. Q4 2004 78 3,000 R.B.I. Holding Company 70 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
13St. Petersburg Residential Sector Demand The number of Russian citizens buying elite apartments is rapidly increasing. The budget varies from $250,000 to $600,000. Foreigners ｯ interest in buying elite apartments (mainly in Zone A) remains high. The greatest demand is for completely finished apartments of 50ｨC200 sq. m. Elite apartments are purchased mostly with the purpose of investment. Russian citizens expect profitability of at least 20ｨC30%, while foreigners expect 10%. The demand in the elite real estate lease market is mainly driven by foreign companies, consulates, and large Russian companies, leasing apartments for their employees. The companies allocate resources to rent apartments for average executives at $1,000ｨC$1,500 per month. Usually these are twoor three-room apartments of 50ｨC100 sq. m. located in the city center. For top managers, the companies usually rent 100ｨC150 sq. m. three-room apartments situated in the elite city center at $2,000ｨC$3,000 per month. For the company management and their families, apartments with three or four bedrooms are usually leased at the monthly rate of $6,000ｨC$7,000. The average lease term is one year. Price Sale prices for elite apartments vary from $1,500 to $7,000 per sq. m. The highest prices (up to $7,000 per sq. m.) are for the apartments in the elite housing zone. In the Admiralteysky district the price is $1,500ｨC$3,000 per sq. m., in the Petrogradsky district ｨC $1,800ｨC$4, 500 per sq. m. Rental rates for elite apartments are contingent on their location. In Zone A the average rental rate is $1,500ｨC$3,000 per sq. m., in Zone B ｨC $800ｨC$15,000 per sq. m. Rental rates for elite residential real estate are growing much more slowly than the supply prices, since these rates directly depend on the companies ｯ budgets. Forecast Further increase in the elite and high standard apartments supply is expected as a result of several new elite housing construction projects. The expected reduction in secondary market prices (estimated at 10ｨC15%) will hardly affect the cost of elite apartments. The demand for expensive apartments will remain strong. Table 9. Cottage settlements Project Location Commissioning Number Price of houses $/sq. m. Severny Versal Northen part of Lakhta settlement, near Novaya Ul. Q4 2006 49 2,100ｨC6,000 Tsarskoselskoye Pomestye Pavlovsk, Pos. Tiarlevo Q3 2006 Several dozens 2,600 Repinskaya Usadba Pos. Repino Q1ｨCQ2 2005 45 1,600 SPb Gorky Pos. Yukki, near Yukki Forest Reserve Q3 2005 16 2,000 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005 71
13Making Sense of Real Estate Worldwide LITHUANIA Vilnius Copyright Colliers International 2005. This report is intended as general market research and is based upon material in our possession or supplied to us, which we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy and completeness we cannot offer any warranty that factual errors may not have occurred. We would like to be told of any such errors so that these can be corrected. Colliers International takes no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered by reason of the inaccuracy or incorrectness of this report.
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130307020000 0807 apple07 00040ｸ9 09000207apple036ｦ00ｷ3090ｸ9 07 00010702020900apple09 ｨ 000300apple000004000203 050ｸ8 006ｦ006 000300 006ｦ0 066ｦ006036ｦ003: www.colliers.com For more information about Colliers International, visit our web sites at www.colliers.com ｨｺ07060609fl 115035, 020706016 56ｦ0 056ｦ0 076 500090ｹ00006016ｦ0fl 006ｦ0.,. 77/1 ｨｪ0002.: (7-501) 258-5151 066ｦ00106: (7-501) 258-5152 colliers@colliers.ru 191186, 056ｦ0000103-ｨｨ000300apple 04apple6 7 046ｦ0 00apple0008006ｦ0fl apple. 0207060109,. 36 ｨｪ0002.: (7-812) 118-3618 066ｦ00106: (7-812) 118-3616 colliers@colliers.spb.ru Russia 77/1, Sadovnicheskaya Embankment 115035, Moscow Phone: (7-501) 258-5151 Fax: (7-501) 258-5152 colliers@colliers.ru 36, Moika Embankment 191186, St. Petersburg Phone: (7-812) 118-3618 Fax: (7-812) 118-3616 colliers@colliers.spb.ru ｨｬ01apple6ｦ009006ｦ0 01004, 0109006 5 ｨｬ02. 03. 056ｦ00609020001076 506016ｦ0fl,. 34 ｨｪ0002.: (380-44) 490-5700 066ｦ00106: (380-44) 490-5799 colliers@colliers.com.ua Ukraine 34, Velyka Vasylkivska Street 01004, Kyiv Phone: (380-44) 490-5700 Fax: (380-44) 490-5799 colliers@colliers.com.ua 006ｦ0036 509fl LV 1004, ｨｺ096 76ｦ0 00056ｦ002 07 0ｷ3000003apple03 ｨｬ02. 036ｦ00406016ｦ006,. 5802 ｨｪ0002.: (371) 710-3399 066ｦ00106: (371) 710-3393 colliers@colliers.lv Latvia 58A, Bauskas Street VALDO Centre LV 1004, Riga Phone: (371) 710-3399 Fax: (371) 710-3393 colliers@colliers.lv 0009036 56ｦ0 LT-01107, 05090200000ｸ906 ｨｨapple070608000103 006ｦ006066 50006,. 3 ｨｪ0002.: (370) 5249-1212 066ｦ00106: (370) 5249-1211 colliers@colliers.lt Lithuania 3, Laisves Avenue LT-01107, Vilnius Phone: (370) 5249-1212 Fax: (370) 5249-1211 colliers@colliers.lt