No.53 12 2004 Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI An Analysis of Drought in Mongolia Using Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI * ** Kazumi SUZUKI * and Tsutomu YAMANAKA ** 2002 1951 1990 Yatagai and Yasunari, 19941990 2003 2003 1990 2001 vulnerability 4 Byun and Wilhite, 1999 * ** 3
1989 Heim 2000 Drought Index WMO 1992 Steila, 1998; Heim, 2000 Byun and Wilhite, 1999 Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI ; Palmer, 1965 PDSI PDSI PDSI PDSI 1 PDSI PDSI 2 1 1 2 PDSI 10 AWC Available Water Capacity AWC 1 m 1 25.4 mm Step 2 Thornthwaite Thornthwaite 19481980 Step 3 Step 4 Potential Actual Potential 1 PDSI 2 4
1 PDSI Symbol Definition Unit Symbol Definition Unit AWC available water capacity mm R1 recharge to layer 1 mm d moisture departure mm R2 recharge to layer 2 mm ET evapotranspiration mm RO runoff mm K, K' weighting factors S1 soil moisture of layer 1 mm L loss mm S2 soil moisture of layer 2 mm L1 loss from layer 1 mm Uw parameter for calculating Pe mm L2 loss from layer 2 mm Ud parameter for calculating Pe mm P precipitation mm V parameter for calculating Pe mm P CAFEC value of P mm X1 tentative PDSI in dry spell mm Pe probability parameter X2 tentative PDSI in dry spell mm PET potential evapotranspiration mm X3 tentative PDSI mm PL potential loss mm Z moisture anomaly (Z-index) mm PR potential recharge mm ZE parameter for calculating Pe mm PRO potential runoff mm,,, CAFEC parameters R recharge mm 3 Step 3 Potential 2 PDSI Step 5 Potential Actual 1 12 4 3 Actual 4 1 2 5
CAFEC Actual Potential P d Step 7 Z 7 4 Step 4 Actual 3 K CAFEC 1 12 Palmer 1965 4 CAFEC CAFEC Step 6 moisture departure d 5 P 6 P 6 CAFEC Climatologically Appropriate For Existing Conditions1 4 8 9 Z Z Z 6
5 Step 8 PDSI X1 X2 X3 2 PDSI PDSI Class 4 Extremely wet 3 4 Very wet 2 3 Moderately wet 1 2 Slightly wet 0.5 1 Incipient wet spell 0.5 0.5 Near normal 0.5 1 Incipient drought 1 2 Mild drought 2 3 Moderate drought 3 4 Severe drought 4 Extreme drought 6 Step 9 Probability PDSI PDSI Step 8 5 Step 9 6 PDSI Step 10 7 PDSI 2 PDSI Alley 1984Karl 1986Guttman 1991 7 Step 10 PDSI 7
University of Nebraska-Lincoln Web Wells 2002 2 1 NCEP/NCAR PDSI NCEP/NCAR National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research 8 45 67 58 106 88 00 1948 2002 2 1961 2000 1961 1990 1991 2000 1961 1993 8 UB PDSI 3 NDVI PDSI NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NOAA/AVHRR 1981 2002 10 45 76 67 106 23 33 SPOT 1 PDSI PDSI AWC AWC AWC PDSI 3 100 200 300 mm PDSI Z AWC PDSI AWC 200 mm 9 PDSI 1960 PDSI 0 1954 57 1962 64 2 Extremely wet PDSI 4 1968 1967 1972 6 1995 8
2003 9 Extreme drought PDSI 4 1973 88 PDSI 0.5 1965 10 2 PDSI NDVI PDSI PDSI NDVI r 0.004 PDSI NDVI r 0.361 PDSI NDVI 7 10 7 PDSI 7 8 7 8 3 PDSI PDSI 4 11 a d 1961-1970 10 11 a PDSI PDSI 1960 1962 9 PDSI 10 PDSI NDVI 9
19641967 1971-1980 11 b1960 1976 77 2003 PDSI 1970 1981-1990 11 c PDSI 1 11 PDSI 10
1991-2000 11 d 1960 PDSI PDSI 8 8 NCEP/NCAR PDSI 1965 1967 1972 6 1995 2003 9 NDVI 1970 80 1960 90 1990 PDSI NDVI AMPEX RAISE 1993 245p 1980 272p 2002 RAISE Project 3 147-156 2003 73 549-553 2001 2000-2001 BP 219-231 1989 144 101-108 2003 73 573-577 11
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