Synoptic situation on 6 May 2012 (Tornado day) 500 hpa temperature: 0900 JST Surface weather map : 0900 JST Moist warm air A cold air-mass with
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1 第 4 回超高精度メソスケール気象予測研究会 : 下層水蒸気の蓄積過程における 水平解像度依存性 ー 2012 年 5 月 6 日つくば竜巻のケースー Dependency of horizontal resolution on accumulation processes of low level water vapor Case study of Tsukuba tornado 加藤輝之 ( 気象庁気象研究所 ) Teruyuki KATO (MRI/JMA)
2 Synoptic situation on 6 May 2012 (Tornado day) 500 hpa temperature: 0900 JST Surface weather map : 0900 JST Moist warm air A cold air-mass with less than -18 degrees in Celsius at 500hPa covered almost the whole area of Japan. Warm moist air flow towards a lowpressure system in the Sea of Japan prevailed in eastern Japan.
3 Specific humidity at 500 m above sea level depicted from JMA MA 1200JST 5 May 1200JST 6 May 6g/kg Moisture was doubled. 12g/kg Moist air inflow was analyzed around Tsukuba. g/kg g/kg 1200JST 6 May Huge water vapor at low levels made favorable conditions for initiation and development of deep convection.
4 Time change of 500m height specific humidity depicted from JMA MA 18JST 5 May 21JST 5 May 00JST 6 May <7g/kg 03JST 6 May 06JST 6 May 09JST 6 May g/kg g/kg g/kg Moist air was produced associated with low-level trough travelling eastward over the ocean south of the Japanese Islands, and it flowed into Kanto Area. 12~13g/kg Almost doubled
5 Numerical model and experimental design Model: JMANHM (Saito et al. 2006) Dynamics: Cloud physics: Fully compressible equations with a map factor Bulk-type with six water species (qv, qc, qr, qi, qs, qg) Convection: Kain and Fritsch (1990) Only in 5km model Turbulence: Surface flux: MYNN (Nakanishi and Niino 2006), Deardroff (DD, 1980) Beljaars and Holtslag (1991) Horizontal grid: Vertical layer: Initial/boundary: 5km(MYNN), 2km(MYNN), 1km(MYNN,DD), 500m(DD) 50 layers(6 layers below 500m, model top:21.8km) JMA-MA adopting a 4DVAR assimilation system JMA-MA 18JST, 5 06JST, 6 NHM5km_w NHM5km,2km,1km,500m Domain:2500kmx2000km Domain:1000kmx600km
6 Accumulation processes of low level water vapor Vertical transportation from the top Mixing of eddies and convection Other processes: Decrease due to condensation (product of clouds) Increase due to evaporation of raindrops Horizontal convergence Latent heat flux from the sea surface LWA 936m 0 q v dz :density, q v : specific humidity In this study, a budget analysis of LWA is made using NHM.
7 Brightness temperature (IR image) of MT SAT 18JST 5 May 21JST 5 May 00JST 6 May Japan Current is clearly found! 03JST 6 May 06JST 6 May 09JST 6 May No remarkable clouds are found south of the Japanese Islands.
8 Time change of low level water vapor amount (5km) t=0 t=3h LWA (z < 936m) Hovmoeller diagrams model t=6h t=9h t=12h E W E W
9 Time change of accumulation processes (5km model) W E time (hour) LWA (z < 936m) Horizontal convergence mm mm/h time (hour) Latent heat flux mm/h Vertical Transportation from the top(z=936m) Diffrent mm/h
10 Time change of accumulation processes for target air column (5km model) Residual (Horizontal convergence +Vertical transportation) Time variation (mm/h) dlwa dt dlwa dt < Residual Latent heat + flux = LWA (z < 936m) Latent heat flux LWA t LWA (z < 936m) (mm) time (hour)
11 Time change of accumulation processes for target air column (5km model) Residual (Horizontal convergence +Vertical transportation) Time variation (mm/h) dlwa dt Residual LWA (z < 936m) Latent heat flux Horizontal advection Latent heat + flux + Horizontal advection LWA (z < 936m) (mm) time (hour)
12 Comparison between integrated increase and LWA for target air column (5km model) Integrated increase (mm) LWA ~ 3 mm Kinematic change ~ LWA 2 3 Residual + Horizontal advection Latent heat flux LWA (z < 936m) ~ 1 LWA 3 LWA (z < 936m) (mm) time (hour)
13 Sub grid vertical transportation of water vapor (5km model) t=3h target air column 12 hour integrated amount for target air column t=6h t=9h Latent heat flux t=12h W E Sub-grid mixing dominates below a height of 500 m. Depth of humid layer increases with time.
14 Comparison between integrated increase and LWA Left axis: Integrated increase(mm/h) Right axis: LWA (z < 936m) (mm) LWA (z < 936m) Kinematic change Residual + Horizontal advection Latent heat flux 500m-NHM(DD) 1km-NHM(DD) 5km-NHM(MYNN) 2km-NHM(MYNN) 1km-NHM(MYNN)
15 12 hour change of LWA for target air column 500m-NHM(DD) 1km-NHM(DD) 1km-NHM Total (mm/12hours) Kinematic change % % % Horizontal convergence 8.79 (308.3%) 8.59 (293.2%) 9.26 (322.8%) Vertical transportation (grid) (-16.1%) (-17.7%) (-55.2%) Vertical transportation (sub-grid) (0.18%) (0.21%) (0.10%) Horizontal advection (-218.1%) (-200.2%) (-204.9%) Latent heat flux % % % Difference between MYNN and Deardroff is small for total change, but each term.
16 Sub grid vertical transportation of water vapor 1km-NHM with MYNN t=3h target air column 1km-NHM with Deardroff t=3h target air column t=6h t=6h t=9h t=9h t=12h t=12h W E W E
17 (m) Vertical transportations of water vapor for target air column (12h accumulation amounts) Sub-grid MYNN Deardroff 5km-NHM 2km-NHM 1km-NHM 500m-NHM (m) Grid (mm) (mm)
18 (m) Vertical profiles of 12 hour accumulation amounts of water vapor for target air column Sub-grid MYNN Deardroff 5km-NHM 2km-NHM 1km-NHM 500m-NHM (m) Grid (Residual+Horizontal adv.) (kg/m 3 ) (kg/m 3 )
19 Vertical profiles of water vapor for target air column t = 6 h t = 12 h (m) MYNN Deardroff 5km-NHM 2km-NHM 1km-NHM 500m-NHM (m) t = 0 h t = 0 h (g/kg) (g/kg)
20 Summary Accumulation processes of low-level water vapor Small dependency of horizontal res. & turbulence scheme on amounts However, each process is difference by tub. scheme. Accumulation process MYNN Deardroff Kinematic change due to meso trough ~2/3 ~3/4 Latent heat flux from the sea ~1/3 ~1/4 Sub-grid vertical transportation (water vapor buoyancy) is limited below a height of 500m. Small dependency of horizontal res., but large for tub. Scheme. Features of vertical profile of water vapor Deardroff accumulates water vapor in lower layers than MYNN
21
22 対象領域の LWA に対する収支の時間変化 時間変化量 (mm/h) 水平収束 発散 鉛直移流 (sub-grid) 鉛直移流 (grid-resolved) 残留量 ( 水平収束 発散 + 鉛直移流 ) LWA (z < 936m) 潜熱フラックス LWA (z < 936m) (mm) time (hour)
23 下層水蒸気量の時間変化 5日18時 6日6時 2km-NHM 5km-NHM t=0 t=0 t=3h t=3h t=6h t=6h t=9h t=9h t=12h W E t=12h W E
24 下層水蒸気量の時間変化 5日18時 6日6時 1km-NHM with Deardroff 1km-NHM with MYNN t=0 t=0 t=3h t=3h t=6h t=6h t=9h t=9h t=12h W E t=12h W E
25 下層水蒸気量の時間変化 (5 日 18 時 ~6 日 6 時 ) 500m-NHM with Deardroff t=0 1km-NHM with Deardroff t=0 t=3h t=3h t=6h t=6h t=9h t=9h t=12h E t=12h E W W
26 左縦軸 : 時間変化量 (mm/h) LWA (z < 936m) 残留量 ( 水平収束 発散 + 鉛直移流 ) 鉛直移流 sub-grid grid-resolved 対象領域の LWA に対する収支の時間変化 潜熱フラックス 500m-NHM(DD) 右縦軸 :LWA (z < 936m) (mm) 1km-NHM(DD) 5km-NHM 2km-NHM 1km-NHM time (hour)
27 左縦軸 : 時間変化量 (mm/h) LWA (z < 936m) 残留量 ( 水平収束 発散 + 鉛直移流 ) 潜熱フラックス水平移流 + + 水平移流 dlwa/dt: 赤細線 残留量潜熱フラックス 対象領域の LWA に対する収支の時間変化 500m-NHM(DD) 右縦軸 :LWA (z < 936m) (mm) 1km-NHM(DD) 5km-NHM 2km-NHM 1km-NHM
28 対象領域の LWA の 12 時間の変化量 5km-NHM 2km-NHM 1km-NHM 合計 (mm/12hours) 運動学的変化 % % % 水平収束 9.10 (296.9%) 9.15 (329.1%) 9.26 (322.8%) 鉛直移流 (grid) (-48.8%) (-57.4%) (-55.2%) 鉛直移流 (sub-grid) (0.11%) (0.15%) (0.10%) 水平移流 (-184.0%) (-210.4%) (-204.9%) 潜熱フラックス % % % 水平分解能による違い ( 境界層スキームが同じ場合 :MYNN) ほとんど差がない ( 水平移流を除く )
29 5km-NHM 2km-NHM t=3h サブグリッドによる水蒸気の鉛直輸送 対象領域 t=3h 対象領域 t=6h t=6h t=9h t=9h t=12h t=12h W E W E
30 500m-NHM with Deardroff 1km-NHM with Deardroff t=3h サブグリッドによる水蒸気の鉛直輸送 対象領域 t=3h 対象領域 t=6h t=6h t=9h t=9h t=12h t=12h W E W E
31 つくば竜巻の概要 筑西市の竜巻 (F1) 被害域 ; 長さ 21km 幅 600m Japan Meteorological Agency 真岡市の竜巻 (F1-F2) 被害域 ; 長さ 32km 幅 650m つくば市の竜巻 (F3) 被害域 ; 長さ 17km 幅 500m 死者 1 名 負傷者 37 名 家屋被害 1000 軒以上 つくば竜巻 (F3): 日本での観測史上最大級
32 つくばでの地上観測と上空の大気状態 ( 前日との比較 ) 上空の大気状態は気象庁メソ解析から判断 6 日 12 時 5 日 12 時 気温 500 hpa (~ 5600 m) -18 C -17 C 地上 25.6 C 25.9 C 気温差 ( 地上 500 hpa) 43.6 C 42.9 C 500 m 高度の水蒸気量 12 g/kg 6 g/kg CAPE ( 対流有効位置エネルギー ) 2300 J/kg - SREH ( ストームに相対的なヘリシティー ) 250 m 2 /s 2 50 m 2 /s 2 環境場の鉛直シアから見積もられるストームに 貫入する水平渦度の程度を示す SREH V C 維持 変化 h 0m 上下の大きな気温差 (40 度以上 ) の変化は小さい 下層の水蒸気量が倍増 dz
33 海面水温 下層水蒸気量の増加と黒潮との位置関係 気象庁メソ解析から作成 水蒸気の増加期間 領域が黒潮域に一致 黒潮の流れ 数値実験により黒潮の影響を調査 5 月 5 日 18 時 5 月 6 日 6 時 500m 高度 ~6g/kg の増加 g/kg g/kg 20m 高度 なお 増加領域の西側は低比湿空気の流入で 水蒸気量が減少 g/kg ~2g/kg の増加 g/kg
34 感度実験における海面水温の設定 CNTL Minus -2 K 0~-2 K -2 K 0~-2 K Max 20 C 黒潮の分布を残して 海面水温を下げる 黒潮域の海面水温を下げ 黒潮の分布もなくす 黒潮の分布の影響を調べる
35 対象領域の LWA の 12 時間の変化量 CNTL Max 20 C Minus 2 K 合計 (mm/12hours) 運動学的変化 % % % 水平収束 8.92 (295.3%) 5.39 (248.1%) 6.21 (303.5%) 鉛直移流 (grid) (-49.1%) (-24.7%) (-21.7%) 鉛直移流 (sub-grid) (0.08%) (0.2%) (0.2%) 水平移流 (-182.7%) (-162.1%) (-206.9%) 潜熱フラックス % % % 運動学的変化の寄与が Minus 2K で増加, Max 20 C では減少. 黒潮の分布が運動学的変化を強めている
36 5 月 6 日 12 時 水蒸気量が 1g/kg 減った場合の影響 500m 高度の気塊を持ち上げた場合の CAPE 気象庁メソ解析から算出 1 g/kg の減少 相当温位約 3 K の減少に対応 CAPE: 2300 J/kg 1700 J/kg (25% の減少 )
37 標準実験 -Max20 実験 (5 月 6 日 3 時の予想値での差 ) 海面気圧 334m 高度鉛直流 下層トラフ 黒潮域での気圧低下収束を作り出している 下層トラフ付近の上昇流の強化 20m 高度水平風速 下層水平風の加速 前 1 時間積算潜熱フラックス 潜熱フラックスの増大
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