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1 T Annual Change Analysis of T-Year Probable Rainfall using Meteorological Observatory s Precipitation Data in Hokkaido 1 Kimiteru SADO and Ichiro SUGIYAMA 5 T T
2 mm T 5 17 T CD-ROM mm.5mm.5mm.mm
3 5 115mm 173mm1971 ) mm 17mm 3) 3) NOAA17 /AVHRR 4ch Group mm Group mm Group Group Group Group Group
4 15m 5 mm 1 3 mm 81.9mm ) 83.4mm 3 89.mm 3
5 5 73.4mm mm 1.mm 5.5mm mm 7mm Group mm Group mm Group Group
6
7 ) 3 5 5) 3 Quantile mm.mm
8 A 1 x 1 x x 1 - x mm mm mm B /8/1 1998/9/1 199/9/ mm mm mm C /7/4-7/ mm195/8/ mm 5.4mm 7/3/3 ),7)
9 34.mm1998/9/ mm199/9/11 3 Quantile /7/4-7/4.mm 7/8/17 5 7/48/17 8 7/8/ ) t BS-Slope Mann-KendallMK Mann-KendallBS-MK
10 M3 H α5 H BS-MK BS-Slope α 4 H BS-MK BS-Slope 4 H mm/day/year.57mm/day/year (mm/day) Trend α5 (mm/day) Trend α
11 1 4 α5 H BS-MK BS-Slope α 4 H BS-MK BS-Slope 3 1 (day) Group (day) Trend α (day) Trend α Trend α
12 4 8) t Welch tbs-t Mann-WhitneyMW Mann-WhitneyBS-MW n X x 1 x n 1 X 1 X δ 1 X X 1 x 1 x n1 X x n1+1 n 1 n nδ 1 X X1 x n1+n 3.1 X 1 X X 3 δ 1 δ X X 1 x 1,, x n1 X x n1+1,, x n1+n X 3 x n1+n+1,, x n1+n+n3 n 1 n n 3 nx X1 δ 1 X 3 X δ 3. X 1 X X X 3 X k M M 7 M Fortran 4 α5 H BS-t BS-MW t α 4 4
13 (mm/day) Jump (mm/day) (mm/day) (mm/day) (mm/day) Jump (mm/day)
14 5 δ 4.mm δ -.mm Jump
15 Jump
16
17 Jump
18 4 δ δ mm/day 9.5mm/day mm mm 198 5mm/day T 11) 1) 17 NDS U Plotting position Hazen plot MoHa S U Plotting position ThomasWeibullplot MoTo S U IwaiS U 3 Quantile- LNQ LNM Pearson P3
19 Pearson LP3 Gumbel Gum Gumbel-Chow G-CS U GEV SQEX Standard Least-Squares CriterionSLSC X GEV ) X X 17 SLSC X SLSC X 4 GEV GEV 199 X T 199 T mm GEV X Gumbel GEV T GEV 5 1 GEV 5 T 4
20 X mm/day GEV T GEV GEV PDF mm/day..1 Hist_5 PDF_5. Hist_199 f(x ).1 PDF_199 f(x ) X _199 X _ mm/day mm/day PDF mm/day1mm/day 5 PDF 15 17mm/day
21 PDF 175mm/day 5 PDF X PDF 1 1/ mm/day mm/day X X 5 PDF 1/ T X T X T X T X mm/day X mm/day T T
22 X 5mm X 1999 X 5 X 3 X 15mm X 4mm 4.mm 4mm 4 X 5mm T 17 1 T 4 T T T mm/day mm/day 8 9 mm/day mm/day 9mm/day n5 n5 n / 5/ 8/3 8/ 9/ /1 8/ 9/ 9/ 8/ /11 9/11 8/3 9/ / mm/day
23 X 1 X 1 a X mm/day/year.a X x T.a X. x T a X. x T a X X a a 4 5 X 1 X X X X
24 X 199 X T SLSC r X TSLSCr 5 3 X T 1 T SLSC r SLSC r 1 3 X X mm/day 1 mm (195 ) 34. (1998 ) 11.5 (199 ) mm (1987 ) 44.3 (194 ) 7.5 (198 ) mm X mm mm/d T SLSC r LP LNQ SQRT-ET MoHa GEV T P
25 GEV P3 3 X 1 X 1 15) X X X X mm X X day X day
26 199 X T 15 T 199 T T T T /48/17.mm 5 T 19.mm -- (1) 3 5 () NOAA/AVHRR 4ch (3)
27 (4) (5) 3 α5 Quantile- 1 () (5) 1 (7) (5) 1 (8) (9) 4 α=.5 α=. () 4 α=.5 α=. (11) 1 (1) (13) 17 GEV 1999 X mm () X X (15) X 1 (1) X SLSCr 3 SLSC (17) X 199 5
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.. F x) = x ft)dt ), fx) : PDF : probbility density function) F x) : CDF : cumultive distribution function F x) x.2 ) T = µ p), T : ) p : x p p = F x
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1 Tokyo Daily Rainfall (mm) Days (mm)
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