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1 , WATER RESOURCES PROJECTION AT THE PASAK RIVER BASIN IN THAILAND UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE Y. TACHIKAWA, Y. FUJITA, M. SHIIBA, K. YOROZU and S. KIM 1 ( ) ( C1) 2 ( ) J-POWER Generation (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 3 ( C1) 4 ( ) ( C1) 5 ( ) ( C1) A change of water resources in the late 21st century at the Pasak River basin in Thailand is analyzed using a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a rainfall and evapotranspiration output projectedby MRI- GCM3.1S. The main findings are as follows: a projectedmean annual inflow tothepasak Dam reservoir for the near future andthe late 21st century experiments decrease by 3.8% and3.5% comparedwith the present climate experiment; a projectedmean monthly inflow using the output of the late 21st century experiment decreases except from July to September; andto maintain a present dam outflow is difficult in the future under a scenario of the same water demand. Key Words: Climate change, river discharge projection, Pasak river, Thailand, water resources 1. 1) 2, 3, 4) 5, 6) (16,291km 2 ) 7) ,52km 2 9 4,86m 36.5m (1) A1B MRI-AGCM3.1S 2km 1 3 ffl : ffl : ffl : 21-2 APHRODITE 8)

2 Chao Phraya River basin Pasak River basin mm 986mm mm.51% % ( ) mm 177mm 172mm Pasak Dam km -1 (HydroSHEDS ) mm APHRODITE 953mm mm mm mm 1.26% % (2) APHRODITE GAME-T2 9) (1) 1, 11) HydroSHEDS 12) 5m GeoHyMoS 13) HydroSHEDS 13) 14) (2) APHRODITE ( ) APHRODITE Precipitation [mm] Observed data in APHRODITE Precipitation [mm] Evapotranspiration [mm] Year Year -2 APHRODITE -3-4

3 Discharge [m 3 /sec] simulated discharge observed discharge 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 1/1 11/1 12/1 Date n (m 1=3 s) k a (m/s) d s (m) d c (m) fi Year R Q p N s R Q T e R v Λ Λ :, R : APHRODITE (mm), Q p : (m 3 /s), N s : Nash, R Q : ( / ) (%), T e : ( ) (day), R v : ( / ) (%) m 1=3 s -2 APHRODITE m 3 /s Nash Nash.7 1.±.1 Precipitation [mm] ly mean Discharge [m 3 /sec] Simulated inflow using rainfall and evapotranspiration in present-day climate experiment Simulated inflow using APHRODITE rainfall and evapotranspiration in present-day climate experiment Observed inflow APHRODITE Daily mean discharge [m 3 /sec] /1 2/1 standard deviation standard deviation standard deviation 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 1/1 11/1 12/1 Date -7 (3) APHRODITE APHRODITE APHRODITE (4)

4 Change ratio Upper rule curve Lower rule curve Montly loss (MCM) ( ) % % 5. ( -9 ) (1) i j S i;j I i;j O i;j L i;j S i;j = I i;j O i;j L i;j (1) L i;j L i;j -1 L i;j MCM(24.4 m 3 ) ( km 2 ) 1 4.3mm/day 3 2.6mm/day 92.5km 2 2.6mm/day 1mm/day 1.8mm/day 4.4mm/day Observed storage ( ) (2) a) i j Ii;j P 21 ( -8 ) I N i;j ;IF i;j r N;P j = Ii;j N =IP i;j ; rf;p j = Ii;j F =IP i;j ; j =1; ; 12 Ii;j O ;i = 21; ; ^I i;j N ; ^I i;j F ^I i;j N = rn;p j Ii;j O ; ^IF i;j = r F;P j Ii;j O j =1; ; 12 (2) (1) 9 (18 ) -11 ( ) 3 b) 9

5 ( ) -3 ( ) a b c a b c Ii;j P Ii;j O r O;P j = Ii;j O =IP i;j ; j =1; ; 12 ~I P i;j = ro;p j I P i;j ; ~ I N i;j = r O;P j I N i;j ; ~ I F i;j = r O;P j I F i;j (3) i =1; ; MCM c) 2 i j O i;j I i;j S i;j O i;j = a j I i;j + b j S i;j + c j (4) a j b j c j O i;j I i;j S i;j MCM a j b j c j MCM ly discharge (MCM) 18 Simulated discharge 16 Observed discharge (a) 12 Simulated storage Observed storage (b) -13 (21 29 ) a i c i -13 (4) b) (4) (4) % 6.1%

6 9 8 7 Present-day climate experiment Near future climate experiment Future climate experiment (A) ( ) ly mean outflow (MCM) Observed outflow ) % 6.1% 21 1) S. Kusunoki, R. Mizuta, and M. Matsueda : Future changes in the East Asian rain bandprojected by global atmospheric models with 2-km and 6- km gridsize, Climate Dynamics, 37(11-12), pp , ),,,,, :,, 67(1), pp. 1-15, ),,,,, :,, 52B, pp , 29. 4) P. A. Jaranilla-Sanchez et al. : Integrated modeling of climate change impacts in the Yoshino River basin, Japan for basin management planning, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 68(4), pp. I 133-I 138, ) T. Nakaegawa, C. Wachana andkakushin Team-3 Modeling Group: First impact assessment of hydrological cycle in the Tana River Basin, Kenya, under a changing climate in the late 21st Century, Hydrological Research Letters, 6, pp , ) T. Ogata et al. : Past andfuture hydrological simulations of Chao Phraya river basin, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 68(4), pp. I 97-I 12, ) P. B. Hunumumbura and Y. Tachikawa: River discharge projection under climate change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, using the MRI- GCM3.1S dataset, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 9A, pp , ) : APHRODITE's Water Resources, ( 212/9/3). 9) : GAME-T2 Data Center, T/GAIN-T/index.html ( 212/9/3). 1),,, :,, 621/II-47, pp. 1-9, ),,, :,, 691/II-57, pp , ) USGS : HydroSHEDS, gov/ ( : ). 13) :, mos.html ( : ). 14),, :,, 48, pp. 7-12,

プレゼンテーション04.ppt

プレゼンテーション04.ppt Chao Phraya Background Chao Phraya Most important area in socio-economic viewpoint Kingdom of Thailand Area: 514,000km 2 Population: 6,180 million 25 major river basin On the Chao Phraya River Basin Largest