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1 (EDITORIA)
2
3 IPCC AR (likely) very likely
4 IPCC AR4 Palmer likely
5 Obs. CC : 2RMSE CC RMES 1 CC RMES CC RMES 1
6 Obs.
7 GCM [mm/day] [mm/day] (1981-2) y = ln(x) OBS 5 y = ln(x) cgcm3_t cgcm3_t gfdl_2_ gfdl_2_1 99 giss_aom 3 ingv 9 miroc_h 7 miroc_m 2 5 mpi 3 P 1 _OBS =F (P _GCM ) cnrm csiro_3_ 1 1 csiro_3_5 iap.1.1 inmcm3_.1 ipsl_cm4.1 miub mri [mm/day] [mm/day] [%] GCM GCM (1981-2) (1981-2) [] [] cgcm3_t47 cgcm3_t63 cgcm3_t47 gfdl_2_ cgcm3_t63 gfdl_2_1 gfdl_2_ giss_aom gfdl_2_1 ingv giss_aom miroc_h ingv miroc_m miroc_h mpi miroc_m cnrm mpi csiro_3_ cnrm csiro_3_5 csiro_3_ iap csiro_3_5 inmcm3_ iap ipsl_cm4 inmcm3_ miub ipsl_cm4 mri miub mri [] [] GCM (1981-2) OBS OBS 1 cgcm3_47.9 cgcm3_t6.8 gfdl_2_.7 gfdl_2_1 giss_aom.6 ingv ingv.5 OBS miroc_h.4 GCM miroc_m.3 mpi mpi.2 cnrm cnrm.1 csiro_3_ csiro_3_5 55 iap iap inmcm3_ ipsl_cm4 miub miub mri mri 3 3 [mm/day]
8 Max Rain Past = 85.59mm/d Future = mm/d rain, mm/day 8 6 rain, mm/day Rank Rank (198 (198-2) 2)464
9 WEB-DHM (Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model), 27, DEM
10 WEB-DHM
11 (b) Wang, Koike et al., 29, Journal of Hydrology (c) (a) (d)
12 21 (1) (a) (b) (c) (d) 21 (2)
13 WEB WEB-DHM : km 2 : FAO : 5m :USGS :
14 SAMEURA ONLY Q, m 3 /s 1 5 Rain Qsim Qobs Nash =.82 RE = 1% Rain, mm/da 5 1/1/1984 3/1/1984 5/1/1984 7/1/1984 9/1/ /1/1984 6
15 SA>1 SA < SA Rainfall SA Rainfall -4 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan SA Discharge SA Discharge -4 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan SA SA SA SA surface soil moisture SA surface soil moisture Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- root zone soil moisture SA SA root zone soil moisture Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-
16 (1982 (1982-2( DAILY DISCHARGE (1982-2) Q, m 3 /s /1/1982 1/1/1986 1/1/199 1/1/1994 1/1/1998 DAILY DISCHARGE ( ) Long term trend: slight difference of extreme events, most probably because the years are not so far away from each other Q, m 3 /s /1/246 1/1/25 1/1/254 1/1/258 1/1/262
17 14 15 Q, m 3 /s Q, m 3 /s Rank Rank 1 (1982 ( (246 ( ) 264) Q, m 3 /s Rank
18 SA Standard Anomaly Index for drought occurence drought frequency 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% -2.63% Past GCM ensemble results Future GCM ensemble results -1.75% +2.19% +.88% (+) (-).% Rain Discharge Surface soil moisture Root zone soil moisture
19
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No.53 12 2004 Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI An Analysis of Drought in Mongolia Using Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI * ** Kazumi SUZUKI * and Tsutomu YAMANAKA ** 2002 1951 1990 Yatagai and Yasunari,
平成27年度三菱重工グループ保険 フルガードくん（シニア）
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1 2 3 4 5 13.5% 20.6% 296 5.8% 10.1% 27.4% 28.4% 826 20.3% 31.2% 19.7% 20.2% 2.7% 31.2% 64.8% 644 儲 儲 0.0 10.0 10.1 20.0 19.8 18.0 30.0 40.0 33.5 8.8 9.8 325 6 4.0% 2.5% 9.9% 17.2% 1,019 13.2% 1.4% 1,024
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温暖化は生態系と人間社会にどんな影響を及ぼすか 国立環境研究所社会環境システム研究センター統合評価モデリング研究室主任研究員高橋潔 地球温暖化の予測と対策 将来の世界の社会経済発展温室効果ガス等の排出量温室効果ガス等の大気中濃度気候の変化人間社会 生態系への影響 CTDK, JCCCA 緩和策 ( 排出削減 ) 適応策 住プロジェクトリーダ発表スライドより 1 水 生態系 食糧 沿岸域 健康 湿潤熱帯地域と高緯度地域での水利用可能性の増加
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