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1 JICA s Approach for Climate Change Adaptation by utilizing GEOSS Outputs Mikio Ishiwatari Senior Advisor Japan International Cooperation Agency 2 nd GEOSS African Water Cycle Symposium United Nations Conference Centre, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Frburary 2011
2 Contents 1. JICA Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector Case studies in Malaysia, and Sri Lanka 2. Projects in Kenya Nation wide MP Integrated Flood Management: Community based adaptation 3. Conclusion
3 Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector --A Resilient Approach that Integrates Water Management and Community Development-- 水 分 野 における
4 <conventional project> Objective: to mitigate human and economic losses Historical hydrometrological data Target setting To decide target floods scale based on probability analysis Run-off Analysis <Project> Structural Measures (such as river bank, and dam) Proposed Method for CCA Planning Non-structural Measures (such as flood early warning) <Climate Change Adaptation Project> Historical hydrometrological data probability analysis on target floods Runoff and Inundation analysis Climate Change Prediction Evaluation on Impact on Extreme Events by Climate Change Coping Mechanism Analysis Target setting 1) Strategic Area Protection by Structural Measures 2) Land Use Regulation 3) Community-based Ri sk Management Structural Measures Objective: to minimize human loss <Project> Monitoring River Basin Governance Urban, Regional Planning (land use regulation) Non-structural Measures (early warning, Evacuation) CBDM Poverty Alleviation, Vulnerability Consideration
5 Prediction for precipitation Multi-model Ensemble of dataset of GCMs in DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) To know prediction To know uncertainty of GCMs 2050 X1.2 current X current Prediction model precipitation
6 ARI: 50 years (2025) Case in Malaysia Pahang River RegHCM-PM, NAHRIM PRECIS, MMD BCCR-BCM2.0, Norway CNRM-CM3, France CGCM3.1(T63), Canada CGCM3.1(T47), Canada GISS-AOM, USA GFDL-CM2.0, USA GFDL-CM2.1, USA INGV-SXG, Italy MIROC3.2(hires), Japan MIROC3.2(medres), Japan ECHO-G, Germany/Korea ECHAM5/MPI-OM, Germany IPSL-CM4, France GCM Average Down scaling Incremental Ratio
7 Current 2025(ave. increase) 2025(max. increase) ARI(years) Inecrease in rainfall Decrease in ARI 50 年 確 率 規 模 降 雨 による 氾 濫 水 位 が50cm 程 度 増 加 する 可 能 性 がある days Rainfall Depth(mm) 500 Some 50 cm of inundation depth increase, ARI 50 yrs
8 (50 ) 2025( 降 雨 量 10% 増 ) 潜 在 死 者 数 61 Potential death toll 149(144%) ( 0%) 潜 在 孤 立 者 数 19,747 Potential isolated people 24,398(24%) ( 0%)
9 4 5 0 Case in Sri Lanka Karu River Monthly Rainfall observed 月 平 均 雨 量 (m m )_ Jan 月 O B S cc3 cct ccx cm 0 cm 5 gc0 if0 in 3 m 3 m m c2 g ax ie4 m 3 h n p 1 ic4
10 Max. Daily rainfall 1/10 10 年 確 率 年 最 大 日 雨 量 (mm/ 日 )_ 年 最 大 日 雨 量 観 測 値 選 定 したGCMの Max 1 day ( ) 予 測 値 ( ) observed Prediction by GCM Upper Aver. of Ensemble lower 時 間 雨 量 (mm/ 時 間 ) Increase by climate change hourly rainfall 確 率 降 雨 (10 年 確 率 年 最 大 日 雨 量 ) カル 川 の 小 流 域 Aの 計 画 降 雨 (1 日 雨 量 ) 時 間
11 The Project on The Development of The National Water Master Plan in Kenya
12 Project Area To renew National Water Master Plan towards 2030 taking into consideration of climate change To assess and evaluate availability, reliability, quality, and vulnerability of water resources up to around 2050 taking into consideration of climate change To formulate action plan up to 2022 To strengthen capacity of water resources management
13 Plan of Operation Collection of Meteorological hydrological data Satellite observation data Rainfall Analysis Collection of Water Use Data (Inclusive of Water Rights) Present Runoff (Flood and low Flow) Estimation of Natural Flow Runoff Analysis Satellite Image and Topographic data Preparation of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Satellite Image Analysis Related to Land Use and Slope Future Runoff (Flood and low Flow) Collection of Analyzed Result of GCM Study on Climate Change Analysis Bias Correction Verification of Model Validity by Ensemble Method Down scaling of Climate Change Analysis Result Future Rainfall (Flood and low Flow)
14 Plan of Operation Components of M/P 2030 Institutional Plans Institutional Strengthening Operation and Maintenance Integration Integration Development Plans Water Supply Sewerage Irrigation Hydropower Water Resources Integration Management Plans Water Resources Flood and Disaster Environment
15 Integrated Flood Management in Kenya ーNeeds for connecting with communitiesー
16 Community-based adaptation Nyand River Basin, Kenya
17 FLOOD DISASTER MAP Interview Survey at 350 points Public Hearing (November 2006)
18 洪 水 被 害 flood damages Annual average flood Heaviest flood in the past
19 避 難 所 Evacuation Center 井 戸 Well Evacuation route
20 避 難 訓 練 Evacuation drill ハザードマップHazard mapping 救 命 訓 練 First aid
21 issues How to utilize outputs from GEOSS in these community-based activities? ex 1. early warning systems: not established because of lack of monitoring systems. ex 2. impact assessment of Climate Change: not incorporated in activities
22 Conclusion Satellite Technology, Simulation modeling, datasets of GCM are crucial in implementing CCA of JICA project Issue: how to connect with communitybased activities
23 Thank you
24 地 域 防 災 力 と コミュニティ 防 災
25 適 応 策 counter measures 輪 中 提 Ring Dyke 引 提 Dyke on High Ground 避 難 路 Evacuation Route 水 制 Long Spur 河 畔 林 River side forest Victoria Lake 道 路 排 水 路 Roadside Drainage 国 道 かさ 上 げ Raising national road Nyand River Sing Board for Flood Condition at Area 看 板 Signboard Flood Affected Area Flood Depth Based on the past Experience Level of Flood Depth Sing Board for Evacuation Route Direction for Evacuation with Distance, Evacuation Center, and Flood Area
26 地 域 防 災 力 コミュニティ 防 災 とは JICA 課 題 別 指 針 防 災 社 会 の 範 囲 中 央 政 府 ( 国 ) 連 携 地 方 行 政 機 関 ( 州 や 県 ) 連 携 NGO 大 学 等 研 究 機 関 support コミュ ニティ 地 方 行 政 機 関 支 援 支 援 JICA 住 民 組 織 学 校 宗 教 等 を 中 心 とする 組 織 support
27 洪 水 対 応
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