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1 Forecasting Model for Electricity Consumption in Residential House Based on Time Series Analysis * ** *** Shuhei Kondo Nobayasi Masamori Shuichi Hokoi ( ) After the experience of electric power shortage due to the Great East Japan Earthquake, we have to use the electric power more efficiently. To use the electricity efficiently, we have to manage our electricity usage under the forecasting model of electricity consumption. In the home energy management system, a forecasting model of electricity consumption with the inference algorithm based on electricity consumption data by a similar warm environmental condition are popular, but the forecasting model with the time series analysis are not. It is because that a processing of the static state to the time series data of electricity consumption isn't enough that modeling of these data with a time series analysis isn't done successfully. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model for electricity consumption based on a time series analysis. Firstly, to make the time series data of electricity consumption static state, we confirmed the seasonal and weekly trends which were included in these data with autocorrelation. Secondly, we removed these trend as the deterministic elements from the time series data of electricity consumption. Thirdly, after removing these deterministic elements from these data, a second order auto regressive moving average model was proposed. Finally, we confirmed this forecasting model with a second order auto regressive moving average was done in several houses

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