評論・社会科学 123号(P)☆/1.福田

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19 Beneficiary Ratio of Unemployment Insurance : A Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) Analysis Jun Fukuda This study analyzes the beneficiary ratio of unemployment insurance by employing vector error-correction models (VECM), cumulative impulse response functions, and relative dispersion contributions. The monthly data used cover the period from January 2002 to December 2007, and are retrieved from the labor force survey by the Statistic Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and the Monthly report of employment insurance business by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Results show that, for both males and females, the effective job openings ratio decreases the beneficiary ratio of unemployment insurance through the increase of voluntary unemployed, which are restricted to receive labor insurance. However, for females only, the ratio of unemployed aged over 55 increases the ratio of unemployment insurance in early times, but decreases it later on. This suggests that senior women have difficulty to be reemployed, and that the payment period tends to exhaust before re-employment, even when women look for a job while receiving the unemployment insurance benefits. Key words : Unemployment insurance, Ratio beneficiaries, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECM), Cumulative impulse response functions, Relative dispersion contribution rate

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