オーストラリア研究紀要 ３６号（Ｐ）☆／３．橋本
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1 36 p Tourism Demand and the per capita GDP : Evidence from Australia Keiji Hashimoto Otemon Gakuin University Abstract Using Australian quarterly data1981: : 4some time-series econometrics methods are applied to the analysis into the relationship between the per capita GDP and the tourism demand captured by the numbers of visitors arriving. On the stationality of the numbers of the long-termmore than one yearvisitors, and of the short-termless than one yearvisitors, along with the real per capita GDP, ADF tests are conducted. We found there are stationary relationships between the tourism demand and the per capita GDP by the estimation results of the Error Correction Mechanism. Further, the causalities in a sense of Granger between the long-term visitors and the change of per capita GDP are found. Key words : Tourism demand in Australia, Unit Root Test, ADF Test, Co-integration Test, Granger Causality. JEL Classification : L 83, C 01, E 10.
2 GDP 1981: : 4 GDP 1 1 GDP GDP GDP Granger ADF Granger
3 1 UNWTO Tourism GDP Song and Li2008Song, Witt and Li2009 GDP 2 ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics1 LTDSeries ID: A C1 STD Series ID: A R GDP LTD STD RPGDP 2008 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Observations 30,205 20, ,440 4,300 27, , ,200 1,618, , , ,173 9,544 14,617 7,112 1,
4 GDP GDP GDP Series ID : A ASeries ID : A W Series ID : A RABS 3 1 LTD 3 1 STD 86 GDP LTD 9.30 STD 6.76 RPGDP LTD 34 STD 560 RPGDP LTD 1 4 STD LTD 2 1 STD
5 3 GDP : RPGDP GDP LTD, STD RPGDP spurious regression LTD, STD RPGDP Augmented Dickey-FullerADF ADF Xt Δ Xtβ 1β 2tδ Xt 1α i Δ Xt 1ε t m!i1 1 Δ Xt Δ XtXt Xt 1, t ADF δ 0 1 X LTD, STD RPGDP LTD STD 1 δ RPGDP 5 RPGDP 1 Δ RPGDP 2 1LTD, STD, RPGDP Δ RPGDP δ t Augmented Dickey Fuller test statistic
6 GDP 2 1Null Hypothesis : LTD has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Prob Null Hypothesis : STD has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Prob Null Hypothesis : RPGDP has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Prob Null Hypothesis : Δ RPGDP has a unit root Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Prob GDP LTD STD GDP RPGDPta1a2LTDtμ t RPGDPtb1b2STDtν t 2 3 LTD STD RPGDP RPGDP LTD RPGDP STD μ t ν t 23 Augmented Engle Granger AEG 23 RPGDPt LTDt t Prob Adjusted R-squared Durbin-Watson stat RPGDPt LTDt t Prob Adjusted R-squared Durbin-Watson stat
7 5 4 Δμ t μ t 1 t Prob Adjusted R squared Durbin Watson stat Δμ t μ t 1 RPGDP LTD 5 Δμ t ν t 1 t Prob Adjusted R squared Durbin Watson stat RPGDP STD RPGDP LTD RPGDP STD 1 Δ RPGDPt Δ LTD μ t 1 t Prob Adjusted R squared Durbin Watson stat Δ RPGDPt Δ STD ν t 1 t Prob Adjusted R squared Durbin Watson stat
8 GDP 8 GDP RPGDP 1 LTD STD LTD STD GDP 45 GDP 1 1 LTD 0.055STD LTD, STD, RPGDP 1 45 Δ RPGDP/Δ LTD LTD/RPGDP / Δ RPGDP/Δ STD STD/RPGDP / GDP GDP 1 GDP 5Granger Granger GDP Granger X Y
9 Xt α iyt 1 β jxt ju1t n!i1 n!j1 Yt λ iyt i n!i1 δ jxt ju2t n!j Y α i011 X n!i1 δ j0y X Granger n!j1 Y X Y X Y X 2 RPGDP GDP 1011 X, Y RPGDP RPGDP LTD 1 RPGDP STD 1 Granger RPGDP 3 A Granger Null Hypothesis Obs No. of Lags F-Statistic Prob. Decision Direction of Causality Causality LTD does not Granger Cause ΔRGDP LTD ΔRGDP STD does not Granger Cause ΔRGDP E E STD ΔRGDP
10 GDP 3 B Granger Null Hypothesis Obs No. of Lags F-Statistic Prob. Decision Direction of Causality Causality ΔRGDP does not Granger Cause LTD E E E E ΔRGDP LTD ΔRGDP does not Granger Cause STD E E ΔRGDP STD 3A 3BF 5 4A 4B GDP 4A 4 12 LTD RPGDP 47 1 RPGDP 4B STD 3, 4 RPGDP GDP
11 4A Obs No. of Lags Tourism Demand Direction of Causality Change of Real per capita GDP LTD ΔRGDP 4B Obs No. of Lags Tourism Demand Direction of Causality Change of Real per capita GDP STD NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE ΔRGDP 6 1 GDP GDP Granger GDP GDP GDP
12 GDP Gujarati, D. N2003Basic Econometrics, 4th edition, McGraw Hill. Gujarati, D. N. and D. C. Porter2003Essentials of Econometrics, 4 th edition, McGraw Hill. Narayan, P. K2003Tourism Demand and Modelling : Some Issues Regarding Unit Roots, Co integration and Diagnostic Test,International Journal of Tourism Research, 5, Song, H. and G. Li2008Tourism Demand Modelling and ForecastingA Review of Recent Research,Tourism Management, 29, pp Song, H., S. F. Witt and G. Li2009The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand, Routledge St. Lucia Campus on Queensland University, 8 27 Tourism Demand and Economic Growth in Australia : Some Econometrics View ABS Dr. Timothy J. Lee
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