銀行の不良債権問題と資本市場の経営監視機能 鹿野嘉昭

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Transcription:

509 65 1 1980 1990 2000 5 2005

66 510 58 4 1999 2002 1980 1986 3 1998 3 2 3 4

511 67 2 2. 1 1985 10 1980 1980 1989 5 1990 8 6 1990 3 1990 1991

68 512 58 4 2. 2 2002 1986 1990 1991 1994 1980 1990

513 69 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 86-90 0.411 0.96 0.319 0.25 0.215 0.22 91-94 1999 2006 3 86-90 3 91-94 1.788 2.87 2.660 2.09 1.698 1.84 3.309 4.967 0.99 1.48 0.127 1.104 0.43 3.41 0.173 1.466 0.44 3.81 0.128 0.884 0.22 1.67 2.041 2.580 1.63 2.18 R2 0.045 1.42 0.928 0.924 0.081 1.91 0.079 225 0.202 225 0.932 0.029 0.078 225 0.176 225 White 1980 t 225 2002 2. 3

70 514 58 4 1986 3 1998 3 2002 3 1 2 2002

515 71 1 3 1980 3 3. 1 SPS 1 SANFRATIO 1 1 e it c i v it SPS it = 1 SAN it-1 2 FRATIO it e it e it =c i v it 1

72 516 58 4 1 0 2 0 1985 1997 12 2 2 2 5 2 2002 1986 3 1990 3 1991 3 1995 3 1996 3 1998 3 3 2002 1991 3 2 3

517 73 SPS SAN 1 SPS SAN 86 90 91 95 96 98 85 89 90 94 95 97 380 480 276 380 480 276 0.2203 0.1103 0.0811 0.2285 0.2585 0.2574 0.2964 0.1641 0.1817 0.0707 0.0765 0.0780 1.3973 0.5664 0.3921 0.4733 0.5328 0.5631 0.3455 0.6398 0.5646 0.1111 0.1356 0.1422 2 SPS SAN 86 90 91 95 96 98 85 89 90 94 95 97 105 100 54 105 100 54 0.2056 0.1033 0.1521 0.2751 0.3432 0.3603 0.4284 0.1884 0.2556 0.0862 0.0954 0.0939 1.3973 0.5664 0.3921 0.4733 0.5328 0.5631 0.3455 0.4579 0.5646 0.1111 0.1877 0.2162 3 SPS SAN 86 90 91 95 96 98 85 89 90 94 95 97 65 50 24 65 50 24 0.1667 0.0785 0.1414 0.2216 0.2609 0.2732 0.3800 0.1559 0.2327 0.0417 0.0453 0.0407 1.3973 0.2000 0.2315 0.3175 0.3710 0.3640 0.2883 0.4022 0.4264 0.1111 0.1877 0.2162 4 SPS SAN 86 90 91 95 96 98 85 89 90 94 95 97 40 50 30 40 50 30 0.2687 0.1282 0.1606 0.3621 0.4255 0.4299 0.4960 0.2148 0.2761 0.0665 0.0500 0.0591 1.3708 0.5664 0.3921 0.4733 0.5328 0.5631 0.3455 0.4579 0.5646 0.2132 0.3305 0.3252 5 SPS SAN 86 90 91 95 96 98 85 89 90 94 95 97 275 380 222 275 380 222 0.2259 0.1122 0.0638 0.2108 0.2362 0.2324 0.2275 0.1573 0.1545 0.0544 0.0512 0.0473 1.1713 0.3807 0.3075 0.4517 0.4491 0.4184 0.2403 0.6398 0.5636 0.1216 0.1356 0.1422

74 518 58 4 SPS SAN 1980 40 15 20 1980 3. 2 2 2006

519 75 2002 1 2 2 2002 80 1991 346 1980 13 24 2002

76 520 58 4 SAN 1 FRATIO 86 90 91 95 96 98 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 0.0016 0.4071 0.0071 0.2402*** 0.3961 2.7466 0.5848*** 0.3853 4.7105 0.0163 0.0033 0.0754 0.1652 0.2991*** 0.0184*** 3.5148 4.5719 0.5457*** 0.0037 4.4711 0.9338 0.0802 0.3799 0.2395*** 3.0010 0.5727*** 4.1221 0.0800 0.0003 0.3613 0.0163 0.2957*** 0.0194*** 3.0415 4.6615 0.5299*** 0.0042 3.6490 0.9869 0.4054 0.4286 0.3787 0.4067 0.3961 0.3785 0.4049 0.4285 0.3786 D.W. 2.2215 1.9109 2.1291 2.2227 2.0408 2.1367 1.7801 1.5327 1.2747 1.7803 1.6015 1.2835 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0.3846 1.5208 0.3752 0.9699 0.2134 0.6995 0.2104 0.7043 0.4365*** 3.1864 0.3794*** 2.7301 0.4363*** 3.1418 0.3577** 2.1028 2 0.2021 0.9869 0.0165 0.4672 0.0212** 1.8834 0.1976 0.0025 0.9482 0.3635 0.1919 0.7971 0.0207 0.7260 0.0217** 2.1809 0.1884 0.0026 0.7805 0.3401 0.7849 0.5227 0.6779 0.7729 0.5440 0.6725 0.7731 0.5227 0.6779 0.7719 0.5438 0.6725 1.9483 2.1080 1.9211 1.9455 2.2011 1.9143 1.2974 1.9062 1.9211 1.2913 1.9430 0.9007

3 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 0.8266 1.3702 0.9434 1.3198 0.8336 1.6252 1.0091* 1.6867 0.9019** 2.5943 0.9127** 2.5466 0.8309** 2.3646 0.8343** 2.3631 0.9226 1.6496 0.9053 1.4918 0.7348 1.3134 0.7584 0.0762 0.0149 0.4141 0.0038 0.2684 0.0016 0.1470 0.0222 0.5998 0.0004 0.0285 0.0007 0.0762 0.8654 0.7244 0.8141 0.8636 0.7187 0.8293 0.8655 0.7240 0.8357 0.8763 0.7177 0.8279 2.4795 1.8585 1.0781 2.4733 1.8549 1.7787 2.2199 1.3900 1.0700 2.1958 1.3916 1.0634 4 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 1.0288 1.3674 1.0310 1.4436 1.3419 1.3274 1.3524 1.2925 0.9018** 2.2484 0.6697* 1.7246 0.7704 1.5092 0.6042 1.2849 0.2519 0.4223 0.1772 0.2633 0.2617 0.3863 0.2005 0.2874 0.0004 0.0105 0.0252** 2.0298 0.0049 0.5346 0.0033 0.0780 0.0241* 1.8891 0.0043 0.3637 0.7617 0.5185 0.5545 0.7545 0.5492 0.5405 0.7608 0.5176 0.5545 0.7536 0.5488 0.5404 1.5630 2.0460 2.0280 1.5634 2.2087 2.0515 1.0915 1.8587 0.8952 1.0936 1.9782 0.9023 SAN 1 FRATIO D.W. 86 90 91 95 96 98 521 77

78 522 58 4 SAN 1 FRATIO 86 90 91 95 96 98 5 2 49 0.2556 0.2999 0.6503 50 0.3478** 0.3992 2.2828 51 0.7624*** 0.2910 3.9972 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 0.2826 0.7427 0.2338 0.9432 0.2446 0.9575 0.0051 0.3098 0.3789** 0.0176*** 2.5211 4.1257 0.7687*** 0.0028 4.0381 0.6175 0.3453*** 2.6752 0.7603*** 4.1018 0.0025 0.1852 0.3764*** 0.0180*** 3.0143 4.5339 0.7669*** 0.0028 4.1341 0.5844 0.2846 0.4301 0.2889 0.2868 0.3992 0.2910 0.2845 0.4302 0.2889 D.W. 2.3715 1.7577 2.1173 2.3753 1.8479 2.1216 1.8874 1.3836 1.3084 1.8893 1.4467 1.3128 t * ** *** 10 5 1 25 36 37 48 2 49 60 1 2

523 79 FRATIO 1990 1990 4 3. 3 1 2002 2 3 1980

80 524 58 4 1987 1990 3 4 1 4 1990 4 4 2005

525 81 2 1980 1980 1990 3 2 1987 6

82 526 58 4 1990 4 2002 1 4 1990 2

527 83 1990

84 528 58 4 Diam ond, D. W., 1984 Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring, Review of Economic Studies, 59, pp.393-414. 1999 2002 1980 pp.313-358 2005 60 2006 2001 EViews 2000 19 4 pp.261-322 1999 2006 1988 TSP 2 1998

529 85 The Doshisha University Economic Review Vol.58 No.4 Abstract Yoshiaki SHIKANO, Bad Loan Problem and Corporate Governance in Japan This paper aims to examine empirically whether or not the capital market in Japan had disciplined Japanese banks to maintain their asset quality in a good condition in the midst of and after the asset price bubble period. We confirmed that the monitoring functions of the capital market did not work as expected. The following three reasons can be cited; (a) the mutual holding of equities and market dominance by the Big Four securities companies before mid1990 s had weakened their function, (b) non-availability of equity derivatives up to 1990 had deterred arbitrage transactions, and (c) the moral hazard occurred among investors because the Japanese government s bank protection policy called convoy system had ensured no bank failures.