2007
1. 2
1. 3
. kl 1400 kl 1200 800 24 700 1000 600 800 600 400 200 0 500 400 300 200 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 76 44 56 53 47 IEA Energy Statistics of OECD Countries 2006 57 OECD OECD 52 35 35 43 32 48 65 65 4
kl kl 70 25 60 50 20 40 15 30 20 10 10 5 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2005 F.O.Licht, World Ethanol & Biofuels Report 5
2007 40kl 230kl 1% 5% 160kl 3% 2% 2,460kl 49% 1,880kl 38% 100kl 2% 9 F.O.Licht, World Ethanol & Biofuels Report 6
2004 7
l l l World Energy Outlook 2006 IEA l - 60/l 200619 l l 8
9
. 2006 EU ETBE ETBE 10
1990 MTBE 2000 MTBE MTBE 2005 2006 40 (1,500 2012 75 (2,800 ( 2006 2030 30% 2007 2007~2017 20% 15% MTBE ETBE 11
EU 2000 2020 20% 2003 EU ( 2005 2% +0.75/ 2010 5.75% (CO2 ( ETBE EU 2007 2020 1990 30% 2020 10% 12
13
CO2 2010 50kl = 2005428 20061 50kl 21 =36kl 2010 ETBE ETBE 2 2006 6,050kl 20074 ETBE 50 SS 14
. 15
16 BEF.
17
1/2 ha 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 100 13 18
2/2 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 19
1/3-1,200 700 100 1,000 800 600 400 100 600 500 400 300 200 200 100 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1 / 20
2/3-500 250 450 100 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 200 150 100 100 50 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 50 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1 1 21
22 3/3 - -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 100-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 100-50 0 50 100 150 200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 100
1/2 600 500 400 300 200 100 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2050 100 500 300 23
2/2 60 50 40 30 20 10 100KL 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 24
1/2 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 200 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 100 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 3 2040 Light Truck 25
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2/2 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 IEA/SMP 8.7 2004 10.0km/L 2050 8.712.0 8.711.8 9.112.1 26
1/2 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 10 4 27
2/2 100KL 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 21 35 45 58 6.2 14 62 60 12 1 N.A. 53 10 60 97 47 25 119 40 8 62 N.A. 51 158 6.0 6 49 187 5.3 4.7 85 N.A. 4.0 4 320 215 653 1.9 1.8 2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 100KL 20064 20102020 6,000KL 2050 4,000KL 28
29 1/3 5 3 2 2 1-34 -27-18 -8 2-9 -9-8 -3 1 0 11 12 12 10 6 3 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 100KL -80-70 -60-50 -40-30 -20-10 0 10 20 100KL
2/3 4 15 12.1 11.9 10 9.8 10.9 5 5.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 1.9 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.9 0 0.0 1.3-3.2-5 -7.5-7.8-8.7-10 -8.9-15 -18.5-20 -25-27.2-30 -33.7-35 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 10.5 3.5 0.7-12.0-21.0-27.2 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 4 2020 30
3/3 4 2010 1,100KL 2050 2,700KL 500KL 20075 5 10 2010 600KL 31
. 1969 344.1ha 2005 255.6 1958 271.9 2005 213.6 32
26.9ha 2005 9.8ha 2005 2005 36.7ha 2005 7.8 33
3 2004 34
35
100KL 36
. 100kl 2010 600kl - 2030 80 BDFGTL 3% 180kl 12-10 - 8 6-6 4 4-2 12 12 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 37 14 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3
38
E-3 3 ETBE ETBE7 E-3 ETBE 39
LCA Life Cycle Assessment) Well to Tank :1-8 Tank to Wheel: 9 40
3-1 41
3-2 (2004 2002 364 42
4-1 43
4-2 CO2 ( 44
45
46
CO2 ( 200 / PJ =10 12 J 47
CO LCA ( CO2 ( CO2 ( 50% CO2 (LCA 48
CO2 Well to Tank) CO2 CO2 (2004 CO2 49
E-3 3 ETBE ETBE7 ETBE 50
(, 51
CO2 C/H 52
. (E-3 (. - (. E-. CO2-/MJ)). - 6,300 53
CO O2 54
55 ( 19992006 $/KL $/bbl,cent/lb 60$/bbl 15 / 450$/KL
56
$/ / 57
CO2 (. ( 2005 115/ 53.8/ 58
E-3 E-3 CO2 CO2 CO2 / / 59
1 E3 ( 60
2 E-3 61
E-3 E-3 ( 2000 ( 62
( ( ( 63
E- E-3 : 64
65
1 3 180KL 66
-. 67
CO2 68