289 216 1 (%) GDP 9 212 213 214 215 216 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 IMF IMF Emerging and Developing Asia IMF IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 216 1
21 EU 23.7% 29.7% GDP 2 21 221 19.3% 6.5% 2.8% 31.% EU 19.% 28.3% 4.9% 16.8% EU 15.3% 28.7% 14.6% 37.9% 3.5% NIEs 3.2% 7.4% 4.2% 19.3% 28.3% NIEs 3.4% 4.5% 13.8% 6.% 5.1% NIEs 3.2% 6.1% 37.9% 19.8% 8.8% EU28 NIEs IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 216 UFJI
1564 4 ( ) 1564 35 3 (215 ) 25 2 15 1 5 195 1975 2 225 25 Asia More developed regions 19525 5
2 45 4 (%) GDP 216 IMF 35 3 25 2 15 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 IMF Emerging and Developing Asia IMF IMF IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 216
3 6 (1 ) 5 4 3 2 1 2 25 21 215 () ( ) IMF6 IMF CEIC 2214
1 ( /) 3, ( /) 7, 25, 6, 2, 5, 15, 1, 4, 3, 2, 5, 1, 199 1995 2 25 21 215 199 1995 2 25 21 215 199-215199 -214 IMF CEIC
GDP 196 7 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1,617 2,174 3,362 2,858 9,557 7,99 3,889 5,896 196 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 52,888 42,39 27,195 22,288 1) GDP 215 IMF 2) GDP GDEGDP 1961989 197136 IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 216 Bloomberg UFJ
289 211 28/9/1=1 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 4 2 6 4 2 289 219 2129 2149 2169 289 219 2129 2149 2169 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 6 8 6 4 2 4 2 289 219 2129 2149 2169 2891 2168 8 289 219 2129 2149 2169 Bloomberg
1 1997-1998 7 1 7, 1 6 215 IMF 6, 5 5, 4 4, 3 3, 2 1 2, 1, 199 1995 2 25 21 215-1 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 216 UFJ CEIC 199215 IMF
2 対外債務返済負担(総返済/輸出)% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 198( 5 1 15 2 25 3 1996( 5 1 15 2 25 3 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 5 1 15 2 25 3 213 5 1 15 2 25 3 IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 216 UFJ
2 4 6 8 1 12 14 1996 1997 1998 CEIC Bloomberg 3 19977 28 3 28 19961199812 27121 12 19961-319981 -12 271-321 1-12 1997 対ドル為替相場 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 27 28 29 21-2 -15-1 -5 5 1 15 1996 1997 1998 (%) -2-15 -1-5 5 1 15 27 28 29 21 (%)
2 2 21688 2 21688 BBB AA- BBB AA- A AAA A+ AAA BB BBB- BBB BBB- CCC+ BB+ B- BB+ BBB AA A AA BBB A- A A BB+ BBB BBB+ BBB AAA AAA AAA AAA (B+) B+ (BB-) B+ AA+ AA- AA+ AA- BBB- BBB+ A- A- (BB-) BB- (BB) BB- 1S&P 2)2 ( ( ) 2512 ( ) 225) )S&P Bloomberg
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o) GDP GDP (GDP) (GDP) (GDP) (GDP) (GDP) (GDP) (1 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( ) 289 6 1.4 8,27 3. 5.6 26.6 2.3 15. 15. 43.1 19.8-12.8 24.5 4.9 5.1 321 7.8 56,57 2.2 24.9 22.6 2.7.5.5 37.8 3.1-14. 12.1 155.4 5.8 51 24.3 -- 2. 33.8 2.8 1. -.7.1 43.9 14. -268. 1.6 34.8 19.6 11,22 1,381.5 13,13 7.2 47.5 45.9 1.7-3.5-3. 54.7 3. -17.5 2.4 666.9 16. 1,33 51.4 34,62 2.8 37.8 31.1 1.5.3 1.2 37.6 7.5-54.7 1.4 215.7 7.7 28 31 1.6 23,85 5.1 33.5 25.6 3. -3.3 -.7 53.9 1.9-25.5 1. 92.9 4.2 384 69.4 13,95 3.3 31. 23.7.7 -.8.2 3.5 5.8-56.3 4.9 271.1 7.3 2,228 1,298 1.2 5,76 6.9 29.2 31.7 5.5-6.4-1.5 69.1-1.3 8.8 6.9 154.5 7.5 312 14 1.8 8,3 6.4 15.2 2.6 2. -1. 1.7 34. 3.2-47.9 6.2 346.2 1.6 914 259 1.2 1,25 5.3 32.5 34.7 4.5-2.7-1.3 27.3-2.6 8.3 18.3 18. 6.7 25 94 1. 5,35 5.9 26.2 25. 2.1-6.5-4.3 53.7 1. 14.9 2.2 251.2 2.2 83 22.7 1,27 5.3 23.4 28.9 4.1-6.5-2.1 76.7-2.7 141.5 21.9 58.9 2.7 193 11.4 27,714 1.4 33.4 26.5.6 -.8 -.8 4.5.4-31.7 6.4 139.2 4.6 315 8 1.2 32,55 2.8 22.1 2.4. -3.6 -.1 64.5 4.1-118.1 8.2 272.3 11.4 457 38. 24,9 2.6 22.8 2.5.2-2.8 -.9 52.5 -.6 58.1 24.7 68.1 4.4 627 3 1.9 55,243 3.3 28.2 36.7 3.9-13.6-13.2 8.1-14. -29.2-3.7 2,813.1 22.8 276 56 1.6 12,7 1.8 18.7 19.3 6.4-3.3.3 53. -4. 45.1 11.7 14.8 5.2 179 22 -.2 19,3 3.2 23. 24.9 -.2-3. -1.2 4.5-1.7 34.5 15.8 18.3 5.5 1,323 143 -.1 24,71.2 3.5 22.4 9. -4.9-4.2 11.4 2.8-116.5 25.9 36. 12.9 5 7 -.6 15,85 1.6 23. 2.5 -.1-2. -1. 33.2 2. 2.5 8.6 244.7 7.5 727 78 1.2 19,4 3.4 14.7 2. 8.2-1.8.3 3.8-3.6 13.1 29.3 74.5 6.2 125 1 -.2 23,83 1.8 3.6 21.9 1.6-2.1 1. 74.7 3.4 32.9 18. 16. 3.2 243 18.9 21,57 3. 21.8 22.7 3.9-2.7-2. 2.6-1.7 24.7 2. 121.4 5.7 48 3.4 2,22 2.8 19.5 19.7 9.6-3.2 -.4 63.4-3.8-61. 15.8 23. 12. 19 32 1.3 11,51 4.2 23.6 25.2 4. -2. -.9 24.3-3.6 9.5 16.6 34.1 14.8 1,89 127 1.2 16,71 2.5 19.6 22.6 3.1-2.5 -.4 46.5-3. 4.8 9.9 12.8 4.4 273 5 1.3 12,6 3.8 19.5 25.6 6.1-3.2 -.3 48.4-6. 28.3 23.6 164.7 8.7 35 11 1.7 6,13 5.3 9.7 21.6 4. -5.8-4.8 38.6-8.1-111.7 1.4 1,162.6 1.7 1,582 26.9 15,9 -.5 16.2 16.6 8.6-8.4-1.6 74.1-1.5 78.7 37.7 17.7 16.2 517 43 3. -- 1.1 18.1 18.2 32. -4.2-1.7 58.6-3. -55.6 18.6 55.7 3.9 61 32 1.5 17,14-1.9 16.3 18.8 211.3-8.7-5.9 28.1-3.6-524.2 61. 57.1 2.6 1 Fitch Ratings 216(216 61 ) (b) (e)216 5 (212-15 216 Fitch Ratings 2 (d)(ppp) (GNI) 3 (i) (j) ( (m)( ) ( ) 4 (n) = = (o)/ -- Fitch Ratings UFJ
19971998 () 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 2 25 21 215 2163 ADB Asian Bonds Online
5 11.8% 6.8% 7.1% 6.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% -.3%.7%.5% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 11% 12% 13% Bloomberg UFJ 2167
212 2167 45 (212 1 212 2167 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 22224262821212214216 MSCIUFJ 2121 MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI UFJ 2167
21 21625 % 291 21 21688-9.1% -3.% -.1% 8.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 3.1% 3.% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2%.% 15.6% 25.8% 28.1% 32.7% -74.1% -45.% -45.6% -49.7% -53.5%.% -1.4% -4.7% -15.2% -22.4% -25.6% -28.4% -29.4% -3.3% 5.% 4.2% 2.5% 1.5% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% Bloomberg
27 29 28 1999 % 27 21688 1999 21688-79.2% -12.6% -16.1% -18.6% -24.6% -31.5% -32.7% -33.8% -41.8% -48.3% -52.5% -59.3% 17.3% 13.9% 4.7% 3.4% 1.4%.3% -89.4% -93.2% -.1% -5.9% -9.% -16.9% -27.7% -36.5% -38.7% -46.6% -56.6% -61.9% -68.1% 24.3% 22.8% 8.6% 3.9% 2.2% -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% -12% -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% Bloomberg
.5.4.3 215 IMF.2.1. -.1 -.2 -.3 -.4 21 26 211 216 IMF Emerging and Developing AsiaNIE IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 216
1 6. 4 28 7.74 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 45 5 55 6 65 3 32 34 7.76 7.78 7.8 7.82 7. 291 2121 2151 7 291 2121 2151 36 291 2121 2151 7.84 291 2121 2151 1, 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 291 2121 2151 8, 9, 1, 11, 12, 13, 14, 4 15, 291 2121 2151 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.8 1.6 291 2121 2151 42 44 46 48 1 2168 8 3. 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4. 4.2 4.4 17, 5 291 2121 2151 28 4.6 291 2121 2151 18, 19, 2, 21, 22, 15 23, 291 2121 2151 Bloomberg 29 3 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 291 2121 2151 11 115 12 125 13 135 14 145 15 291 2121 2151
2 6. 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 2131 2147 2161 52 28.5 7.745 54 29. 7.755 29.5 56 3. 7.765 58 3.5 7.775 6 31. 7.785 62 31.5 32. 7.795 64 32.5 7.85 66 33. 68 7.815 33.5 7 2131 2147 2161 34. 2131 2147 2161 7.825 2131 2147 2161 1, 1,5 1,1 1,15 1,2 1,25 2131 2147 2161 9, 1, 11, 12, 13, 14, 1.2 1.25 1.3 1.35 1.4 4 15, 2131 2147 2161 2.8 1.45 2131 2147 2161 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 1 2168 8 3. 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4. 4.2 4.4 2,5 49 2131 2147 2161 28 4.6 2131 2147 2161 21, 21,5 22, 22,5 23, 2131 2147 2161 Bloomberg 29 3 31 32 33 34 35 36 124 37 2131 2147 2161 127 13 133 136 139 142 145 148 2131 2147 2161
(1) 28 28 281-3 1 18 281-3 1 18 16 16 G D P 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 28 21 212 214 216 28 21 212 214 216 281-3 1 18 16 14 12 1 8 28 21 212 214 216 1) 2161-3 2 GDP GDP Bloomberg 14 281-3 1 18 16 14 12 1 8 28 21 212 214 216
(2) 211 (%) (%) 2 2 15 15 1 5 28 21 212 214 216 218 (%) 2 1 5 28 21 212 214 216 218 (%) 2 15 15 1 5 28 21 212 214 216 218 1 5 28 21 212 214 216 218 1) 2168 8 2FF.25.5%.5% 3).1%.1% 21344 4 21518 1 5 211529213 915 Bloomberg
3.24 37,8 3.348 21681 UFJ UFJ MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI