2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags 7.1 7.2 7.3 2005 Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 The future business environment : trends, trade-offs and choices 1 http://www.shell.com/scenarios 1
2025 2001 2002 2 2003 2004 2004 2004 1 2005 1 Davos 3 2 People and Connections Global Scenario to 2020 Public Summary 3 2
2.1. 2001 9.11 12 2.2 2003 The Sarbanes-Oxley Act nation states 2.3 3
4 13 4 Driving force Les forces motorices de macroenvironnement 4
2025 5 5 Utopia 1984 Dystopia 5
Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags Flags 6
Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors 6 2025 7 3.1 6 Da Wo 7 predetermined trends 7
20 2050 150% SEC US GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles 8 IOSCO SEC 13 EU WalMart GM Motorola 8 8
10 3.2 Nation State Market State 9 3.3 2025 2002 UNAIDS AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios 9 Class Action 9
to 2025 10 11 11% 2025 12 13 Flags, Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors Low Trust Globalisation Low Trust Globalisation 10 UNAIDS/04.52 English original, January 2005 www.unaids.org 11 Curse of oil 12 relinking of energy consumption and economic growth 13 3 10
4.1 Low Trust Globalisation EU EU M&A 4.2 14 US GAAP 14 2004 11
NGO CSR Low Trust Globalisation 4.3 Low Trust Globalisation Glaxo coalitions of the willing 2015 4.4 Low Trust Globalisation 4.5 Low Trust Globalisation 2004-2015 3.0 3.0 EU 2.0 12
4.6 Low Trust Globalisation Law as the Business R&D Low Trust Globalisation 13
4.7 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Open Doors 5.1 MIT 900 14
Open Doors 5.2 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors 2003 WTO EU BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2025 Nation State Market State 15 EU ASEAN+ NAFTA WTO Open Doors EU G - 2 16 15 2004 16 S 2004 15
Open Doors EU EU 2005 10 EU EU 1000 Open Doors 5.3 Public-Private Partnership 5.4 Open Doors win-win NGO EU Open Doors 16
5.5 Open Doors Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors NGO EU EU Open Doors 5.5 Open Doors Open Doors 2004-2015 3.8% 4.0 EU 2.8 Open Doors 17
5.6 Open Doors NGO NGO EU 5.7 Open Doors Open Doors 2020 550ppm GEM (Global Environmental Mechanism) Flags Flags Flags Flags 18
6.1 Flags EU 6.2 Flags WTO 6.3 Flags 6.4 Flags Flags 19
Flags 6.5 Flags Flags Flags 2.6 2010 BRICs 2015 6 7 6.6 Flags Flags Low Trust Globalisation Flags Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors NGO Open Doors NGO Flags NGO 20
6.7 Flags Flags 2005 CNOOC Flags Open Doors Flags Flags LNG 21
7.1 (exploratory scenarios) 17 17 22
Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors, Flags 3E 23
18 7.2 Jet Stream Weather System 2005 2025 18 (Scenarios : An Explorer s Guide 2003) 24
Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags 7.3 Jeroen van der Veer Enterprise First 19 (Cultural Change) 19 Our external stakeholders view the Group as a single entity we must do the same. That means simplifying and standardising what we do; it means avoiding actions that maximise the profits of one part of the business while adding costs elsewhere; it means sharing expertise and resources across the Group; and it means having an external mindset. ( Shell World October 2004 ) 25
20 Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors, Flags Enterprise First 2006 2005 5 19 Royal Dutch Shell plc 6 28 2005 7 20 1907 6 4 20 Within Shell, I think the imperative is to use this tool to gain deeper insights into our global business environment and to achieve the cultural change that is at the heart of our Group strategy. We face real challenges in the future, we will all need to be able to respond to changing circumstances and make informed and rigorous judgement about our decisions: these scenarios and methodology will help us to do that better. 26