The Emerging Markets Monthly... 2... 3... 4 1 3 GDP... 5 KRW BOK... 6 3... 7 25bp... 8 takafumi.horiuchiki@mizuho-bk.co.jp kenta.tadaide@mizuho-bk.co.jp yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp FX Ken Cheung ken.cheung@mizuho-cb.com 1 3 GDP... 9 RUB... 10 ZAR 鍵... 11... 12 BRL... 13... 14... 15 Vishnu Varathan vishnu.varathan@mizuho-cb.com Huani Zhu huani.zhu@mizuho-cb.com FX Chang Wei Liang weiliang.chang@mizuho-cb.com +44 20 7786 2505 hidetoshi.honda@mhcb.co.uk Luciano Rostagno luciano.rostagno@bancomizuho.com.br
kenta.tadaide@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 5 13 6 1 15 5 9 10 9 10 6 28 29 20 G20 IT IT 1 2019 5 2 2019 5 TRY THB BRL IDR INR PLN PHP RUB MYR KRW ZAR CNY MXN CLP -4.7-3.4-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-1.3-1.3-1.9-1.9-2.5 1.2 2.2 RU IN BR MY PH TH ID CL PL MX ZA TR CN KR -7.3-3.2-3.8-4.0-4.1-4.1-4.9-5.1-5.8 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 4.1 The Emerging Markets Monthly 2
takafumi.horiuchi@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 CNY 2018 12 6.91 PBoC CNY 6.90 6 G20 4 5 PMI +1.1 pt CNY 6.80 7.00 PBoC CNY 7.00 CNY 3 7.1 USD/CNY CNY/JPY 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 4 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 The Emerging Markets Monthly 3
kenta.tadaide@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 INR INR 13 70.6 70 20 INR 69 69 5 23 543 BJP 303 282 1984 BJP NDA 353 336 INC UPA 60 90 NDA 12 5 NDA 2 2 3 1 2023 1 3 GDP +5.8 10 12 +6.6 2014 1 3 2018/19 18 4 19 3 +6.8 +7.2 2013/14 +8.1 +7.4 +10.0 +9.3 +9.2 +15.0 +12.5 +4.7 +15.4 +17.6 INR 5 6 SENSEX30 76 USD/INR INR/JPY 1.45 42000 SENSEX30 74 1.50 40000 72 70 68 1.55 1.60 1.65 38000 36000 66 1.70 34000 64 1.75 32000 62 1.80 30000 The Emerging Markets Monthly 4
1 3 GDP yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 IDR 14200 14400 21 14500 14200 6 1 3 GDP +5.1 10 12 +5.2 10 12 +6.0 1 3 +5.0 10 12 +5.2 1 3 +5.3 10 12 +4.6 1 3 +5.2 2018 BI 2018 9 BI 16 7 6.00 BI 4 17 21 55.5 24 6 28 2014 2018 5 11 BI 6 175bp IDR 7 8 15800 15300 14800 14300 13800 13300 USD/IDR IDR/JPY 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.86 6800 6600 6400 6200 6000 5800 5600 12800 0.88 5400 The Emerging Markets Monthly 5
KRW BOK takafumi.horiuchi@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 KRW 2017 1 1200 KRW BOK KRW 4 2018 3,000 0.14 1 3 4 4.1 5 100 6 GDP +0.1 KRW 2 1200 22 BOK 1200 BOK 31 7 1.75 KRW 1140 1200 KRW BOK KRW 9 1220 USD/KRW KRW/JPY 1200 1180 1160 1140 1120 1100 1080 1060 1040 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 10 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 The Emerging Markets Monthly 6
3 kenta.tadaide@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 MYR 5 2,000 MYR 13 6 1 600 MYR 16 1 3 GDP BNM 4.15 4.19 BNM 5 7 MPC 25bp 3.00 BNM 3 3 BNM 1 3 GDP +4.5 10 12 +4.7 +1.1 10 12 +1.3 +0.1 10 12 +3.1 0.9 10 12 +3.1 1.4 10 12 +1.8 +0.9 pt 10 12 +1.0 pt 3.5 10 12 +3.5 2010 2015 遡 2016 +7.6 10 12 +8.4 2 +6.3 10 12 +4.0 IT FRB MYR MYR 11 12 FTSE KLCI 4.4 USD/MYR MYR/JPY 25.0 1900 FTSE KLCI 4.3 25.5 1850 4.2 4.1 4.0 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 1800 1750 1700 1650 3.9 28.0 1600 3.8 28.5 1550 The Emerging Markets Monthly 7
25bp yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 PHP 51.60 BSP 52 52 9 1 3 GDP +5.6 10 12 +6 3 2015 1 3 10 12 +12.6 1 3 +7.4 10 12 +8.5 1 3 +5.7 10 12 0.6 1 3 2.6 2019 10 12 +5.3 1 3 +6.3 4 CPI +3.0 3 +3.3 +2 4CPI CPI +3.4 3 +3.5 BSP 9 25bp 4.50 BSP BSP 3 21 16 BSP 18 16 5 13 14 12 9 3 3 FRB PHP 13 14 55 USD/PHP PHP/JPY 1.95 9500 54 2.00 9000 53 52 51 2.05 2.10 2.15 8500 8000 50 2.20 7500 49 2.25 7000 48 2.30 6500 The Emerging Markets Monthly 8
1 3 GDP yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 THB 31.90 31.40 CNY 1 3 GDP 31.52 21 NESDB 1 3 GDP +2.8 10 12 +3.6 2014 10 12 10 12 +0.7 1 3 4.9 10 12 +5.4 1 3 +4.6 10 12 +4.2 1 3 +3.2 10 12 +1.4 1 3 +3.3 NESDB 1 3 2019 +3.5 4.5 +3.3 3.8 Brexit BOT 8 MPC 1.75 BOT 24 5 25 28 26 1 136 2 116 3 81 6 5 THB FRB THB 15 16 SET 34.5 34.0 33.5 33.0 32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 USD/THB THB/JPY 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 1550 SET 30.5 3.7 1500 The Emerging Markets Monthly 9
RUB +44 20 7786 2505 hidetoshi.honda@mhcb.co.uk 5 RUB 這 5 1 5 9 12 RUB RUB 2000 25 5 13 15 5 30 RUB 2 4 RUB 2 15 RUB RUB RUB RUB USD EUR 這 14 30 CBR 4 6 7 9 4 6 6 14 CBR 25bp 2020 17 18 RTS 75 USD/RUB RUB/JPY 1.5 1350 RTS 70 65 1.6 1.7 1300 1250 1200 60 55 1.8 1.9 2.0 1150 1100 1050 1000 50 2.1 950 The Emerging Markets Monthly 10
ZAR 鍵 +44 20 7786 2505 hidetoshi.honda@mhcb.co.uk 5 ZAR 8 29 1 3 ANC 57.5 400 230 9 8 ANC 57.5 1994 2014 62.1 ANC EFF 10.8 ZAR 22 4 CPI 23 SARB 3 2 僅 25bp 2 SARB 25bp 28 ZAR 27 ANC 29 35 25 19 ZAR Eskom EWC Eskom = 19 16.0 USD/ZAR ZAR/JPY 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 20 FTSE/JSE 64000 FTSE/JSE 62000 60000 58000 56000 54000 52000 50000 48000 The Emerging Markets Monthly 11
+44 20 7786 2505 hidetoshi.honda@mhcb.co.uk 5 TRY USD 6.00 TRY 6 10 25 TRY 煽 1 /9 0.1 15 27 TRY TRY / TRY 3 4 CPI +19.50 16 5 12 +15.38 +15.48 CBRT TRY S-400 TRY 31 1 3 GDP +1.3% 19 TRY 3 6 23 CBRT TRY 21 22 100 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 USD/TRY TRY/JPY 10 15 20 130000 120000 110000 100 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 25 30 100000 90000 80000 3.0 35 70000 The Emerging Markets Monthly 12
BRL takafumi.horiuchi@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 BRL 2018 9 4.12 3.92 IEA BRL IEA 15 2019 1 3 4 6 1 3 GDP 0.2 9 4 5 3 BCB 24 2019 GDP +1.23 4 26 +1.70 BCB 8 6.50 6 10 8 1,333 GDP 2 22 BRL 3.80 4.10 BRL 捗 BRL 23 4.4 USD/BRL BRL/JPY 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 24 105000 100000 95000 90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 65000 60000 55000 The Emerging Markets Monthly 13
takafumi.horiuchi@mizuho-bk.co.jp 5 MXN 19.3 Pemex 18.9 19.6 17 USMCA 30 9 Pemex 1 3 GDP0.2 3 +1.2 4 PMI Banxico 4 2019 GDP +1.52 9 4 CPI +4.41 3 +4.00 Banxico 3 14 +3.87 3 +3.55 Banxico 16 8.25 MXN 19.0 20.0 MXN MXN 25 26 21.0 20.5 USD/MXN MXN/JPY 5.0 5.2 54000 52000 20.0 5.4 50000 19.5 5.6 48000 19.0 5.8 46000 18.5 6.0 44000 18.0 6.2 42000 17.5 6.4 40000 17.0 6.6 38000 The Emerging Markets Monthly 14
2019 1 5 2019 2020 SPOT 6 9 12 3 6 CNY) 6.6546 6.9219 6.9049 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.78 6.75 HKD) 7.8274 7.8500 7.8383 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.81 7.80 INR) 68.349 71.825 69.443 70.8 69.5 68.5 68.0 68.5 IDR) 13895 14528 14269 14300 14400 14200 13800 13800 KRW) 1108.68 1196.67 1182.16 1190 1180 1170 1150 1130 MYR) 4.0545 4.2028 4.1820 4.25 4.18 4.12 4.08 4.05 PHP) 51.617 53.025 52.029 52.8 53.0 53.2 53.0 53.0 SGD) 1.3443 1.3837 1.3715 1.37 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.33 TWD) 30.526 31.641 31.466 31.50 31.40 31.30 31.10 30.90 THB) 31.06 32.51 31.48 32.0 31.8 31.5 31.0 30.9 VND) 23175 23422 23397 23450 23600 23550 23400 23350 RUB) 63.5713 69.8032 65.5112 65.00 67.00 69.00 68.00 67.00 ZAR) 13.2362 14.8934 14.5914 14.10 14.60 15.00 14.80 14.50 TRY) 5.1621 6.2457 5.8486 6.20 6.50 6.80 7.00 6.80 BRL) 3.6376 4.1208 3.9229 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.80 3.85 MXN) 18.7480 19.8279 19.6445 19.40 19.50 19.60 19.70 19.80 CNY) 15.519 16.764 15.680 15.65 15.62 15.29 15.20 14.81 HKD) 13.398 14.332 13.813 13.78 13.67 13.30 13.19 12.82 INR) 1.497 1.631 1.559 1.53 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.46 100IDR) 0.726 0.800 0.760 0.755 0.743 0.732 0.746 0.725 100KRW) 9.047 9.970 9.160 9.08 9.07 8.89 8.96 8.85 MYR) 25.772 27.507 25.886 25.41 25.60 25.24 25.25 24.69 PHP) 2.024 2.168 2.080 2.05 2.02 1.95 1.94 1.89 SGD) 76.71 82.87 78.94 78.83 76.98 76.47 76.87 75.19 TWD) 3.410 3.641 3.441 3.43 3.41 3.32 3.31 3.24 THB) 3.260 3.569 3.439 3.38 3.36 3.30 3.32 3.24 100VND) 0.4530 0.4839 0.4628 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 RUB) 1.518 1.758 1.653 1.66 1.60 1.51 1.51 1.49 ZAR) 7.088 8.243 7.420 7.66 7.33 6.93 6.96 6.90 TRY) 17.513 21.187 18.507 17.42 16.46 15.29 14.71 14.71 BRL) 26.677 30.075 27.597 27.69 27.79 27.37 27.11 25.97 MXN) 5.348 5.977 5.511 5.57 5.49 5.31 5.23 5.05 1. 2019 5 31 SPOT 6 3 15 30 2. 3. 4.5 31 The Emerging Markets Monthly 15