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1 FOREIGN EXCHANGE Global Markets Research RBA NZ ASEAN CPI NSC - NSC - NSC - NSC - NSC - NSC - NSI - NSC - NIHK - NIplc EU EU plc Appendix A-1

2 Nomura 1: : 2

3 Nomura 2: / 捗 : 3

4 Nomura 4 3: 1 : /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 TOPIX() S&P500) (196814=100) ( =10) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 10() 10() (%) (%) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () ( ) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () (/) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () (/) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () (/) (/) (/)

5 Nomura 5 4: 2 : /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () ( /) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () ( /) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () (/NZ) (/NZ) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () ( /) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () ( /) (/) (/) /01 12/07 13/01 13/07 14/01 14/07 15/01 15/07 16/01 16/07 17/01 17/07 18/01 18/07 () () ( /) (/) (/)

6 Nomura FRB FOMC ECB

7 Nomura 5: 10/15 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 USD/JPY : 6: GDP 7: % 90% 80% 81% % % 50% 40% 51% % 20% 19% 22% % 0% : : JCER 8: : 10,, : : 7

8 Nomura bp : (), :

9 Nomura NRI : 12: 9, , ,000 6, , , , ,000 1, , NRI : : PER 9

10 Nomura : : () : : () (%) /10/ : : : 10

11 Nomura GDP NO EU EU GDP EU EU ECB OMT PMI 15 11

12 Nomura CPI : PMI : CPI 3.5 CPI : : 12

13 Nomura 2-2 EU 16 BOE EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU DUP EU EU (1) DUP (2) DUP (1)DUP GDP 2.5 DUP (2)10 EU EU 13

14 Nomura : : 14

15 Nomura Global Research NBC 噂 CPI

16 Nomura 18: : 16

17 Nomura RBA IMM 19RBA FRB RBA : 20: : : RBA 鍵 RBA 2020 CPI 2.5RBA 10 RB 17

18 Nomura RBA CPI 10 CPI 0.10pt CPI RBA RBA 21: CPI 22: RBA : 50 : ABS : : ABS 18

19 Nomura 3-2 NZ NZ RBNZ 25bp NZ RBNZ NZ 7-9 RBNZ CPI +1.1 NZ 23 NZ RBNZ CPI RBNZ 揃 NZ 23: : 19

20 Nomura BOC FRB 24 24: 10 : BOC OIS 鍵哨 19 CPI 20

21 Nomura 25: : 26 PMI 26: : : 21

22 Nomura PSL 2 PT PSDB / 僅 30 1 PT PSL PSL

23 Nomura 81 4 PSL : 1 : 2 : 23

24 Nomura 28: PT (PDT) (REDE) (PSDB) (PSL) : 29: PT (PSL) : 24

25 Nomura 30: / : 31: : 25

26 Nomura NAFTA USMCA IMM NAFTA BONOS NAFTA : IMM : CME 33: (' ) (' ) '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 3 INEGI:

27 Nomura 34: 35: 12 GDP : INEGI : : 36: 37: TIIE : INEGI : : 27

28 Nomura Moody s Moodys Moody s : GDP GDP '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' : : GDP : 28

29 Nomura FRB G20 DJ 捗 6 CNH /

30 Nomura /2 8.7 /310.0 /

31 Nomura : 10 9 USDCNY () : 31

32 Nomura ,1081, , G20 DJ / KOSPI : ( : CEIC 42: ( :CEIC 32

33 Nomura 4-3 RBI RBI RBI calibrated tightening : Nifty : Nifty : CPI '17 '18 '19 : HRA : 33

34 Nomura RBI RBI RBI 9 IL&FS IL&FS 10 1 RBI PMI 34

35 Nomura 45: '09/3 '10/3 '11/3 '12/3 '13/3 '14/3 '15/3 '16/3 '16/9 '17/3 '17/9 '18/3 : RBI 11 5 RBI RBI RBI : 35

36 Nomura 4-4 ASEAN , : 1Jan2018= : : : 9 27 BI % GDP 34.4 僅 BI DNDF 8 20%9 1 36

37 Nomura FRB bp 48: : (10 ) % () DAX KOSPI Nikkei FTSE S&P MSCI Asia ex JP FTSE SET PSEi SENSEX % : CEIC : BSP BSP BSP BOT BOT BOT

38 Nomura GST MAS (S$NEER)()() MAS MAS : 2004/4 這 2007/ /4 2008/10 這 2009/4 2010/4 2010/ /4 2011/ /4 2015/1 2016/4 這 2018/4 2018/10 51: 19991= NEER : (MAS) : S NEER() ((MAS))(MAS 2% : (MAS) 38

39 Nomura 5. CPI % 10% % 8% % % CPI 2% CPI % 10% 2% CPI 2% 8% CPI 2% 4 1.0% 1.0% Global Research CPI CPI CPI =

40 Nomura : 53: () : () : % % % CPI CPI 0.03% 0.27%0.53% 60%0.6% CPI 0.6% 40

41 Nomura CPI % CPI 83/ % 0.8% CPI 0.8% 10% 1.0% CPI % CPI NHK % 8 CPI NHK CPI 0.4% 8 CPI 0.4%8%=0.03% CPI 0.04% CPI OPEC OPEC JMMC / 80 / Global Research % 54 41

42 Nomura % % % 54: CPI (%) / 70/ 80/ 90/ (/) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q : CPI (%) / 70/ 80/ 90/ (/) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q : :

43 Nomura Generic Ballot 49% 41% 8% : (%) : () : FiveThirtyEight (%) : FiveThirtyEight 5% 43

44 Nomura 58: 59: 910 () (%) : FiveThirtyEight : () FiveThirtyEight 9 22% 28% FiveThirtyEight 9 70% 79% 9 FiveThirtyEight 7 68% 10 80% 60 44

45 Nomura 60: (%) : NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist Poll bp0.01% 25bp 2 4% : 2016 (%) (bp) () S&P500() () : 1bp 0.01% : FRB 45

46 Nomura Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 TCJA 10 TCJA 9 TCJA TCJA CBO10 GDP 1.1% % 80% NAFTAUSMCA 46

47 Nomura 2 4 Forecasting the race for the House, Forecasting the race for the Senate, FiveThirtyEight The Economist mid-term forecast: Who s ahead in the mid-term race, The Economist 2018 U.S. House Midterm Elections Forecast, The Crosstab 2018 House Race Rankings, 2018 Senate Race Rankings, The Cook Political Report 2018 House, 2018 Senate, Sabato s Crystal Ball House Ratings, Senate Ratings, Inside Elections Battle for the House 2018, Battle for the Senate 2018, RealClearPolitics 2018 Generic Congressional Vote, RealClearPolitics Are Democrats or Republicans Winning The Race For Congress?, FiveThirtyEight Latest Election Polls, RealClearPolitics Lewis AlexanderRobert DentKenny Lee 47

48 Nomura 7. EU GDP PMI HICP EU ECB ECB ECB bp ECB GDP

49 Nomura 62: : 63: () : 64: (%) 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q (%) (%) GDP () () (%) GDP GDP ( %) (%) (%) () (GDP%) (GDP%) (%) (HICP) HICP () EURIBOR /() : 49

50 Nomura 8.EU EU EU 9 PMI EU BOE BOE BOE EU EU EU EU 50

51 Nomura : : 0-1 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 : : : 67: (%) 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q (%) (%) GDP () () (%) GDP GDP( (%) (%) (%) (CPI) CPI () BOE( (%) /() /() : (4 3 ) : (BOE) 51

52 Nomura 9. MNB 19 GDP % 18 CPI 3% % 1.0% 19 NMB MNB MPC 9 18 MPC 18 MPC MNB ECB MNB 3 BUBOR % MPC MPC 18 FGS MNB FIDESZ EU EU 7 52

53 Nomura 68: GDP(%) GDP(10) (GDP%) (GDP%) CPI(%) CPI(%) (%) (10) (GDP%) (%) BUBOR(%) (/) : 1.2. (IMF)(EU)3. BUBOR : (MNB) 69: (CPI) 4.5 (%) : CPI CPI Marcin Kujawski 53

54 Nomura CPI CPI NBP GDP 5.1% EU % PMI 44.5% GDP 3% CPI19 CPI NBP 2.5% MPCNBP ECB NBP % EC EU EU 7 17 GDP 1.5% 50.6%

55 Nomura GDP GDP GDP/ GDP 70: GDP(%) GDP(10) (GDP%) (GDP%) CPI(%) CPI(%) (%) (10) (GDP%) (%) (/) (CPI)(VAT) : (NBP) 71: GDP (CPI) (%) GDP CPI : Marcin Kujawski 55

56 Nomura : :

57 Nomura Appendix A-1 NSI NIP IQ LLC( ) FINRA/NYSE NSI ILLC FINRA 2711 NYSE 472 NGFPNDPI plc NIplcNGFPNDPI NIplc NSI NSI NSI 3 3 EU 53% Buy Buy 79% 0% Neutral 47% Sell Sell 85% EU NSC plc (NIplc) (NSI) LLC (ILLC) (NIHK)() (NFIK) ((KOFIA) KOFIA ) (NSL) ( E ) (NAL) (ABN ) ( (ASIC) P.T. (PTNSI) Sdn. Bhd. (NSM) NIHK (NITB) () (NFASL) ( : Ceejay House, Level 11, Plot F, Shivsagar Estate, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli, Mumbai , India: : ; CIN U74140MH2007PTC169116SEBI () BSE INB NSE INB INF INE , MCX: INE SEBI ()INM SEBI ()INH ) NIplc (NIplc, Madrid)CNS (CNS)CNS NSL 57

58 Nomura NSL NSFSPL BDO-NSBDO BDO BDO BDO-NS BDO NSL BDO-NS NSL BDO-NS BDO (i)(ii) (iii) () MSCI MSCI Inc.(MSCI)MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI Russell/Nomura Frank Russell Company Frank Russell Company / EU """" 2 tactical 3 strategic NIplc NIplc NIplc 58

59 Nomura NIHK ASIC NAL NSM NSL NSL 289 NSL 1933 S NSI NSI a-6 NIplc UAE UAE UAE UAE Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) Canadian Investor Protection Fund Instinet Canada Limited (ICL)ICL ICL IIROC ICL ICL ICL ICL ICL Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customer NIHK (i) (ii) S&P S&P S&P S&P S&P 59

60 Nomura S&P S&P S&P ,808 REIT ETF ETN ,808 60

Nomura

Nomura () Global Markets Research 2019 1 21 () - NSC - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 ( )() ()( )ROE( )( ) 5 (5%) Production Complete: 2019-01-21 06:55 UTC Appendix A-1 Nomura 2019 1 21 1.... 3 1.1...