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1 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 OKADA, Akira CO 2 CO CO CO CO2Mt-CO CO CO 1.2 CO CO CO2 1.2 CO CO CO CO 2002 CO CO GHGGreenhouse Gases Vol.11 No Summer

2 , CO Mt-CO ITS Mt-CO CO Mt-CO CO CO GHG GHG CO CO CO 3 4 CO 2 Vol.11 No Summer 003

3 3 CES 4 5 CO 2 Rubin and Kling 11 Rubin and Kling Rubin and Kling HC 6 Wang 12 Kling 13 CO 1990 Albrecht 14 Raux and Marlot 15 Raux and Marlot 1,000 Raux and Marlot Ahmad and Greene 16 Fischer et al. 17 Austin and Dinan 18 CAFECorporate Average Fuel Economy Standards Fischer et al. 17 CAFE 2000 Austin and Dinan CAFE 004 Vol.11 No Summer

4 Austin and Dinan 3 CO 11 CO GHG 8- CES CES 2 16A 8 AA A A 17 CES CESu x 2 x 1 1 Vol.11 No Summer 005

5 u x x x x A A B B A A B B i 1 CES p 1 1p 2 I 1x 1 x 2 p 2 x 2 p 2 x 2 x 21 x 22 x 211 x 212 x 213 x 214 x 221 x 222 x 223 x x 2111 x 2112 x 2121 x 2122 x 2131 x 2132 x 2141 x 2142 x 2211 x 2212 x 2221 x 2222 x 2231 x 2232 x 2241 x 2242 k=1,2j=1,2,3, i 22 CES p 221 Ap 222 Ap 223 Bp 224 B 42 x 211 x 224 p 21 p p 221 p p 2kj x 2kj k=1,2; j=1,2,3,4 x 2kj1 x 2kj2 6A 2 2i 2 CES p 21 p 22 2 x 21 x 22 p i 221 CES p 2211 Ap 2212 FE 2212 A 68x 2111 x 2242 p 211 p p 21 x 21 p 22 x 22 x 2kj Vol.11 No Summer

6 p 22j1 j=1,2,3,4 p D 22j1 j=1,2,3,4 p 21j1 j=1,2,3,4 FE 22j2 j=1,2,3,4 FE 21j2 p 2kj2 k=1,2j=1,2,3, Fischer et al AB4A B AB 8 A B ABp0 22j1 jp s 22j1 jx s 22j1 jfe 22j1 j C A FE 22j1 C B FE 22j1 AB p s 22j1 x s 22j1 FE 22j1 3p0 22j1 89CFE 22j1 20 FE0 22j1 ja1a2a4 a1a2a p FET FE REG 22j1 j 1112 Vol.11 No Summer 007

7 x 21j1 x 21j2 x 21j p g p tax g a1a2a , , , , ,700-2,7351,000 1,630-1, , X2211 X2221 X2231 X , ,007 15,8371,000 26, Vol.11 No Summer

8 FE2212 FE2222 FE2232 FE2242.4kml ,000km l 27 Q,pg 11 X,h 1km FE,pg X,h Greene 28 4 X,h 0.17 Q,pg E a1a2a A B a1 a2 a ,433 6,302 38,895 4,512 6,796 41, CO2 5 3 CO GAMSGeneral Algebraic Modeling System 5.1 2,361 20,675 8, l 30,000t-C 9.9l 7km 2.5km 2,785 24,173 4, Vol.11 No Summer 009

9 Reg Tax RegTx TraTx kml 17kml 0.3kml Reg 5l 15l 0.3l RegTx CO , CO2Mt-CO2 CO2 CO2 Reg , , CO CO Tax , , RegTx , TraTx 5.2 2, CO 8 CO Fischer et al CO 8 8CO CO CO CO 11 0 Vol.11 No Summer

10 5.3 4 CO 2 AB CES Q,pg Q,p g CO 9 CO A 1.4 CO2Mt-CO Reg CO ,015 1 CO , Reg , , Reg , , B 3 AB 1A B CO2Mt-CO2 1 Reg CO ,060 7 CO , Reg , , Reg , ,1 7 CO CO Vol.11 No Summer 011

11 CO CO CO Ahmad and Greene 16 2, Tietenberg 30 6 CO CO CO CES Mt-CO A A1 A2 B B1 kml kml kml AA117km/lA2km/l2 14km/l AA11 3km/l=1714 A214km/l=14 4km/l AA120A2 A20km/l=3204 B112km/lB11 B20km/l BA20km/l 14km/l kml kml 012 Vol.11 No Summer

12 PQFEX 1kmhhP/FE QX/FE Q,p P/QdQ/dP , gioweb_j1.36.xls2008/5/ /8/ pp IV-56pp pp United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change2002Decision 15/CP.7: Principles, nature and scope of the mechanisms pursuant to Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto ProtocolFCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.2online 11J. Rubin and C. Kling1993An emission saved is and emission earned: An empirical study of emission banking for light-duty vehicle manufactures Journal of Environmental Economics and Management25(3), pp M.Q. Wang1994Cost savings of using a marketable permit system for regulating light-duty vehicle emissionstransport Policy1(4), pp C.L. Kling1994Emission trading vs. rigid regulations in the control of vehicle emissionsland Economics70(2), pp J. Albrecht2000The diffusion of cleaner vehicles in CO 2 emission trading designstransportation Research Part D5(5), pp C. Raux and G. Marlot2005A system of tradable permits applied to fuel consumption by motoriststransport Policy12(3), pp S. Ahmad and D.L. Greene2003A preliminary economic analysis of tradable credits for fuel economy standardstrb TRB 2003 Annual Meeting CD-ROMCD-ROM 17C. Fischer, W. Harrington and I.W.H. Parry2007Should Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards be tightened?energy Journal28(4), pp D. Austin and T. Dinan2005Clearing the air: The costs and consequences of higher CAFE standards and increased gasoline taxesjournal of Environmental Economics and Management50, pp CD-ROM CD-ROM Greene, D.1997Why CAFE WorkedOak Ridge National Laboratory pp T.H. Tietenberg2006Market PowerEmissions Trading: Principles and Practice, 2 nd ed., RFF Presspp Evaluation of Tradable Permit Policy to Reduce CO 2 Emission from Private Passenger Vehicles in Japan: A Case of Fuel Economy Trading Policy By Akira OKADA CO 2 emission from transportation sector in Japan has been reducing due to increasing fuel price, economic recession and CO 2 mitigation policy mix, which includes fuel economy regulation and tax exemption for purchasing better fuel economy vehicles. Japanese government makes further CO 2 reduction polices with tightening fuel economy regulation, because Japanese government intends to certainly reduce CO 2 emission from transportation sector. Existing researches, however, show that policy mix based on fuel economy regulation and tax exemption for buying new fuel-economy-improving car losses social welfare. Fuel economy trading has been gotten a lot of attention as an alternative policy for fuel economy regulation. This study evaluates introduction of fuel economy trading policy, a kind of tradable permit policy in transportation sector, to Japan. I use computational partial equilibrium model to simulate and evaluate effects of the policy. As a result, fuel economy trading policy doesnt undermine social welfare than fuel economy regulation, but reduction of CO 2 emission by the policy is less than by the regulation. Key Words : reduction of CO 2 emission from private cars, fuel economy trading, fuel economy regulation Vol.11 No Summer 013

149 (Newell [5]) Newell [5], [1], [1], [11] Li,Ryu, and Song [2], [11] Li,Ryu, and Song [2], [1] 1) 2) ( ) ( ) 3) T : 2 a : 3 a 1 :

149 (Newell [5]) Newell [5], [1], [1], [11] Li,Ryu, and Song [2], [11] Li,Ryu, and Song [2], [1] 1) 2) ( ) ( ) 3) T : 2 a : 3 a 1 : Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan Vol. 58, 215, pp. 148 165 c ( 215 1 2 ; 215 9 3 ) 1) 2) :,,,,, 1. [9] 3 12 Darroch,Newell, and Morris [1] Mcneil [3] Miller [4] Newell [5, 6], [1]