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1 No.9

2

3

4 (2000) 4

5 % 26% , , % 15 60% %

6 (2000a) 7 (1999) 8 (2000) 9 (2000) (2000) (1999) 6

7 ,000 2, (2000a)

8 5,000 8

9 ,000 1, (2000a) bracket creep 9

10 ,000 2, ,

11 (1995) , ,000 (1995) , (2000) 11

12

13 )

14 %

15 deadweight loss p E P A P B A D O c C C D P C C ACOE ACOP APE 21 Stiglitz (1988) Feldstein (1999) 15

16 22 P P C C AA P P A BPP AA B net of tax share Feldstein (1999) 2 23 Harberger (1964) 2.5% Feldstein (1999) 1 2 Lindsey (1987) Feldstein (1995a, b) Feldstein-Feenberg (1995) Carroll (1998) Auten-Carroll (1999) 24 tax avoidance 22 No

17 ,000 1, B A* A g* g 25 Feldstein (1999) 17

18 B A g B A* B g* g g* g g* 2 DID: differences-in-differences treatment group control group 2 B b A a B A G b a g G G g g

19 Feldstein (1999) Feldstein 95 Feldstein-Feenberg (1995) 0.74 Auten-Carroll (1999) 0.6 Lindsey (1987) 1.58 Carroll (1998) treatment group

20 % 8%

21

22

23 (1999) (1995) vol.31, No.2. (1995) (2001) mimeo (1987a) 6. (1987b) 12. (1997) Dec (1993). (1986) 8. (1991) (2000) 4. (1998). (1997). (1997) (1997) (1998). (2001). (1995). (1983) ESP

24 (1984) Autumn (1991). (1995) (1999). (2001), DP/01-4. (1989). (2000) 21. (1995) TSP 2. Auerbach, A. and D. Feenberg (2000), The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers, NBER Working Paper 7662, April Auten, G. and R. Carroll (1999), The Effect of Income Taxes on Household Income, Review of Economics and Statistics 81 4, Nov Bosworth, B. and G. Burtless (1992), Effects of Tax Reform on Labor Supply, Investment, and Saving, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.5 No.1. Carroll, R. (1998), Do Taxpayers Really Respond to Changes in Tax Rates? Evidence from the 1993 Tax Act, U.S. Department of the Treasury, OTA Working Paper 79, Nov Dalsgaard, T. and M. Kawagoe (2000), The Tax System in Japan: A Need for Comprehensive Reform OECD, Economics Department Working Papers No.231 Duncan, A. and C. Giles (1996), Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms, Economic Journal 106, Jan Eissa, N. (1995), Taxation and Labor Supply of Married Women: The Tax Reform Act of 1986 as a Natural Experiment, NBER Working Paper 5023, Feb Eissa, N. and J. Liebman (1996), Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May Eissa, N. and H. Hoynes (1998), The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Labor Supply of Married Couples, NBER Working Paper 6856, Dec Feenberg, D. and E. Coutts (1993), An Introduction to the TAXSIM Model, Journal of Analysis and Management, vol.12, No.1. Feldstein, M. (1995a), The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act, Journal of Political Economy, vol.103, No.3. Feldstein, M. (1995b), Behavioral Responses to Tax Rates: Evidence from the Tax Reform Act of 1986, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, vol.85. No.2 revision of NBER Working Paper 4496, Oct

25 Feldstein, M. (1999), Tax Avoidance and the Dead Weight Loss of the Income Tax, Review of Economics and Statistics 81 4, Nov revision of NBER Working Paper 5055, March Feldstein, M. and D. Feenberg (1995), The Effect of Increased Tax Rates on Taxable Income and Economic Efficiency: A Preliminary Analysis of the 1993 Tax Rate Increases, NBER Working Paper 5370, Nov Greene, W. (2000), Econometric Analysis, 4 th ed., Prentice-Hall. Harberger, A. (1964), Taxation, Resource Allocation, and Welfare in J. Due ed. The Role of Direct and Indirect Taxes in the Federal Revenue System (conference report), Princeton University Press. Heckman, J. (1979), Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error, Econometrica, vol.47, No.1. Hotz, V. and J. Scholz (2000), The Earned Income Tax Credit, prepared for the NBER Conference on Means-Tested Transfers (May ). Lindsey, L. (1987), Individual Taxpayer Response to Tax Cuts: With Implication for Revenue Maximizing Tax Rate, Journal of Public Economics 33. Meyer, B. and D. Rosenbaum (1999), Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers, NBER Working Paper 7363, Sep Moffitt, R. and M. Wilhelm (1998), Taxation and the Labor Supply Decisions of the Affluent, NBER Working Paper 6621, June Scholz, J. (1996), In-work Benefits in the United States: the Earned Income Tax Credit, Economic Journal 106, Jan Slemrod, J. (1995) High-income Families and the Tax Changes of the 1980s: the Anatomy of Behavioral Response NBER Working Paper No.5218, Aug Stiglitz, J. (1988), Economics of the Public Sector, 2 nd ed.. (1988). (1998) 6. (1999) 2. (2000) (1995) (1993) (2000a) 21 25

26 (2000b) (2000c) 5. (2001) 6. (2001) Inland Revenue (2000), Your Guide to Working Families Tax Credit: For employees and the self-employed (leaflet), Aug IRS (2000), Earned Income Credit EIC : For use in preparing 2000 returns, (catalog) Publication 596, Internal Revenue Office, U.S. Department of the Treasury. 26

27 (2001) (2001) 2 33 (2001)

28 (2001) (2001)

29

30 30

31 35 p G p 0 + E A p 0 E B A D O F C C 0 -dc C 0 D 36 AA B 0.5 dc Stiglitz (1988) Feldstein (1999) R DWL DWL 1 τ = εc c: R 2 p 0 31

32 DWL C C 2 1 τ DWL = ε C C τ t TI T t 1 t Feldstein t DWL = 2 1 t ε T TI 2 1 t dti = TI d t (1 ) comp 3 T Lindsey (1987) 32

33 aging differences-in-differences differences-in-differences treatment group treatment group control group 2 Treatment group TItb TIta e TIta gta e gta ttb tta tta Control group TIcb TIca e TIca gca e gca tc tc tc treatment group ttb tta TItb TIta gta TIta e 33

34 gta e gta gta gta e TIta<TIta e ttb tta 1 ttb gta/ ttb tta 1 ttb gta gta e / ttb tta differences-in-differences treatment group treatment group control group control group TIca e TIca control group treatment group T 1 ttb [ gta gta e (gca gca e )] ttb tta 40 T uncompensated elasticity compensated elasticity T dtave dti = (1 t) 4 d (1 t) dy control group tcb tca 1 ttb [ gta gta e (gtc gtc e )] [ ttb tta tcb tca ] T 34

35 94 96 Treatment Group , , Control Group 0 300, t Treatment Group 26.6% 24.5%) T (4) T dti dy Feldstein-Feenberg (1995) 0.37 ( ave T Feldstein (1999) 95 2 tb ta DWL = 1 2 t 2 a t 1 t 2 b b ε TI 5 T T , , Feldstein-Feenberg (1995) Auten-Carroll (1999) Lindsey (1987) Carroll (1998) ta tb 35

36 Feldstein-Feenberg Auten-Carroll Lindsey Carroll e ta(100 ) tb(100 ) TI( ) , , , , , ,220 37,220 37,220 37,220 37, ,716 15,716 15,716 15,716 15, ,022-5,686-16,431-1, ,741-2,481-6, ,048-2, ,237-6,485-9,215-26,333-3, Feldstein (1999) 36

37 2000 e % 700-2% % 700-8% tb(100 ) ta(100 ) TI( ) 200 9, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,777 1,922 1,600 2,153 41,239 41,710 40,768 37

税制改正にともなう家計の所得弾性値 : 高齢者パネルデータによる実証分析

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