遺産相続、学歴及び退職金の決定要因に関する実証分析 『家族関係、就労、退職金及び教育・資産の世代間移転に関する世帯アンケート調査』
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1 2-1. (2-1 ) (2-2 ) (2-3 ) (Hayashi [1986]Dekle [1989]Barthold and Ito [1992] [1996]Campbell [1997] [1998]Shimono and Ishikawa [2002]Shimono and Otsuki [2006] [2008]Horioka [2009]) ( ~ ~1, ,000~2, ,000~3, ,000~5, ,000 ) () 26
2 2 () 8 y i y * i 1 if yi = M 8 if * κ 0 < yi κ1 * κ < y κ 7 i 8 (1) y = x β + u * i i i u i ~ N(0, σ ) κ 0 = κ 8 = x i u i i ( i = 1, L, n ) j ( j = 1, L, 8) π ij κ j xiβ κ j x β * 1 i = Pr( κ j 1 < yi < κ j ) = Φ Φ (2) σ σ Φ( ) κ β σ = 1 κ σ (2) N 8 κ j xiβ κ j 1 xiβ [ ] ln L( β, κ, σ ; y, x) = 1 y = i j ln Φ Φ (3) i= 1 j= 1 σ σ β κ σ (3) x i ()() 2 (censored) 5,000 () 9. Heckman 27
3 3 4 x ( i )() ( ) % 8 3 () 4 5 (1989) (1993) 28
4 () () () ( []) () () () () ()1 0 () 10 ()1 0 () () 2: 578 3:
5 3 6 ( ) 2, (%) () % (1989) (1993) (1996) (2008) 60% 1,380 2,115 6 () ~ ~1,000 30
6 40% (1) u i σ 1 ( β ) σ ( (C)) 10 () 7 () (2008) (160 )8. 5,000 5, (6,250 ) A ,
7 2-1-3 (A) (B) (C) 32 σ * * E *** *** * ** *** * ** ** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** ** - - (σ) F/LR *** *** *** / : ***** *1510
8 * -4.E-04 2.E-04 * E-05 3.E *** * * *** ** : ***** * (A)(C) Greene (2008, p.38)
9 (1) ()(2) (3) (1) (2) (=1-)() () 16.6% 27% 40% 52.9% 66.7% κ
10 % 27.0% 26.0% 38.8% 31.1% 44.5% 22.9% 35.1% 34.0% 47.7% 39.5% 53.6% 34.4% 48.2% 47.0% 61.1% 52.9% 66.7% 1: ~14% 34% 47.7% 13.7% () E() E( >0) E() 4~ (46.8%) 35
11 2-1-6 () 1 E() E( >0) : , (2008) Horioka (2009) 2006 () (E( >0)) ~2,000 1,000 1, (2008) Horioka (2009) 16 (2008) Horioka (2009)
12 (2008) Horioka (2009) ( ) 17 () , % 79.5 ~ % 29.1 ~ (1990) (2006) (2008) Horioka (2009)
13 2-1-7 σ 3 () *** *** *** *** 79.5 (σ) F/LR / σ 3 () *** *** ** ** () (σ) F/LR / : ***** *1510 2: 3: 4: 59
14 ,500 7, % 21.8% 24.9% 51.2% 35.7% 63.3% (E( )) ,147.4 (E( >0)) , , , ( E()) , ( E())
15 () 1 () 40() Pr() 6.9% 9.5% 12.9% 17.0% 21.8% E() E( >0) Pr() 24.9% 30.8% 37.3% 44.2% 51.2% E() E( >0) Pr() 35.7% 42.5% 49.5% 56.5% 63.3% E() E( >0) : : : 40 40(1411.3)
16 2-1-9 () 1 () 40() Pr() 16.0% 18.3% 20.8% 23.5% 26.3% E() E( >0) E() 30.3% 33.5% 36.9% 40.3% 43.9% E( >0) E(Y >0) Pr() 48.0% 51.7% 55.2% 58.8% 62.3% E() E( >0) : : : 4040 (556.9)
17 () 2.5~3.2 4~5 1 1,000 (1998) Vol. 49No. 4pp (1993) Vol. 17No. 1pp (1996) ()pp (1990) ()pp (1989) Vol. 102No. 6pp (2008)Vol. 44No. 3pp (2006) ()pp Barthold, Thomas A., and Takatoshi Ito, (1992) Bequest Taxes and Accumulation of Household Wealth: U.S. -Japan Comparison in T. Ito and A. O. Krueger, eds., Political Economy of Tax Reform, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp
18 Campbell, David W, (1997) Transfer and Life-cycle Wealth in Japan, , Japanese Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp Dekle, Robert, (1989) The Unimportance of International Transfers in Japan, Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp Hayashi, Fumio, (1986) Why is Japan s Saving Rate So Apparently High? in S. Fischer, ed., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Vol. 1, Cambridge: MIT Press, pp Horioka, Charles Yuji, (2009) Do Bequests Increase or Decrease Wealth Inequalities? Economics Letters, Vol. 103, No. 1, pp Shimono, Keiko., and Ishikawa Miho, (2002) Estimating the Size of Bequests in Japan: , International Economic Journal, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp Shimono, Keiko., and Hideaki Otsuki (2006) The Distribution of Bequests in Japan, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp
19 2-1-A 1: 2: 200 3: : * * * * 4.E-04 2.E-04 * -5.E-05 3.E-05 * -7.E-05 4.E-05 * -9.E-05 5.E-05 * E-05 3.E-04 7.E-06 3.E-05 1.E-05 4.E-05 1.E-05 5.E *** *** *** *** * * E E * *** *** *** *** ** ** ** ** LR *** : ***** *1510
20 2-1-A () 5: : : : * * * * -7.E-05 4.E-05 * -6.E-05 3.E-05 * -3.E-05 2.E-05-6.E-05 3.E-05 * E E E E-05 4.E-05 8.E-06 4.E-05 5.E-06 2.E-05 8.E-06 3.E E *** *** *** *** * * * ** E E E E *** *** ** ** ** ** * ** E LR *** : ***** *1510
21 ~ ,070-2,178-2,206-2,092-2,084 1,462 1,301 1, ,191 5,363 5,893 6,089 5,954 5,906-2,377-2,563-2,681-2,430-1,747 2,636 2,813 2,959 3,043 3,486 6,012 6,748 7,463 7,815 7, (2008) [1992][1993] ,
22 =9=12=14= (1) (2) (3) (4) 4 (3)(4) Ono[2004] 1 / A 23 47
23 [1] (4) 4400 [2][3][1] 25 [4] [5] [4]
24 2-2-2 [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] *** ** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** * * ** ** * ** *** *** ** * *** * ** *** *** *** ** *** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ( *** *** *** * *** ** *** ***** * [2][4][5]
25 [1] % % 21% 47% )3-1) ,
26 2-2-3 Prediction 3-1) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ) ((100) *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *
27 2-2-4 =9=12=14=16 3 [1] [2][1] [3] 26 [4] [5] 26 g P(g)ΣP(g)=1 (b)(t) T ΣP(g)t(Tg ; ) ΣP(g)t(Tg ; ) 52
28 ) [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** ** *** ** ) [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***** * [5]
29 b f e f p(e m ; b f, e f ) ) s c (b c )(n c )(e f, e m ) 4 q(e c ; s c, b c, n c, e f, e m ) 30 b c =b f +30b f (e f )b c Pr( e ; b c f, e f, s, n ) = c c em p( e m ; b f, e f ) q( e ; s, b, n, e n c 210 Pr( e ; b, e,2) = (Pr( e ; b, e,,2) + Pr( e ; b, e,,2))/ 2 c f f c f f c f f c c c c f, e m ) 27 54
30 2-2-5 Prediction 5-1) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** ) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***** *
31 / / / / %10.6% % 11% % 37%
32 2-2-7 ( ) / / (1) (2) 57
33 (1) No. 22pp pp Ono, Hisashi (2004) Are sons and daughters substitutable? Allocation of family resources in contemporary Japan, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp
34 A [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** * * * ** ** ** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** ** * *** ** *** *** ** *** *** * *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ( *** *** *** *** ***** * [2][4][5]
35 % 35 2, , , ( % (2006)(2008 ) 9 60
36 2-3-1 (1) 3 (2) 3-6 (3) 612 (4) 1224 (5) 2436 (6) (7) 48 45%3 20% 1 (12 ) 16% (44.5) (19.8) (12.1) (7.3) (6.0) (2.9) (2.5) (4.8) (100.0) (75.4) 59 (18.4) 4 (1.2) 10 (3.1) 5 (1.6) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) (0.3) (100.0) (44.6) (29.3) (18.2) (5.6) (1.5) (0.4) (0.2) (0.2) (100.0) (32.1) (16.5) (22.2) (17.0) (9.9) (1.4) (0.5) (0.5) (100.0) (22.3) (9.6) (11.7) (10.6) (25.5) (10.6) (2.1) (7.4) (100.0) (11.0) (3.9) (2.6) (5.8) (11.6) (14.2) (18.1) (32.9) (100.0) (80.4) (10.0) (3.0) (2.2) (2.6) (0.9) (0.0) (0.9) (100.0) 3 64 (94.1) 3 (4.4) 0 (0.0) 1 (1.5) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 68 (0.0) (100.0) (82.7) (14.8) (1.2) (1.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) (68.0) (10.0) (12.0) (4.0) (6.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) (75.0) (10.0) (0.0) (5.0) (5.0) (0.0) (0.0) (5.0) (100.0) (45.5) (9.1) (0.0) (0.0) (18.2) (18.2) (0.0) (9.1) (100.0) ,490 (50.1) (18.3) (10.7) (6.5) (5.4) (2.6) (2.1) (4.2) (100.0) %
37 11.0% (1995) Lazear (1979) [2009] [1996] Lazear (1979) 62
38 (1995) 34 (1995) ( ) Kotlikoff and Wise (1985)Lazear (1982) ( ) 63
39 2-3-3 () <3> *** *** ** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * <> *** *** ** <4> *** ** * *** *** * *** *** * *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** <1960> ** ** ** ** robust standard error****** 1510<> %
40 2-3-4) <3> *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** * ** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** <> *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** ** <30> *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** * *** *** *** *** ** ** *** *** *** *** ** ** * *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** ** * * * ** *** *** *** ** * ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** <1960> ** ** *** ** ** * * *** *** *** *** ** ** ** * robust standard error****** 1510<>
41 A % % (2003 ) % % , , , , , y i *=b 0 + bx i + e i y i *) y i =0, y i =1,...y i =7 y i =0 if κ 0 < y i * <κ 1, y i =1 if κ 1 < y i * <κ 2,... y i =7 if κ 7 < y i * <κ 8 Pr(y i =0 x i )= Φ( κ -bx 0 i ), Pr(y i =1 x i )= Φ(κ 1 -bx i )-Φ(κ 0 -bx i ),..., Pr(y i =7 x i )= Φ(κ 8 -bx i )-Φ(κ 7 -bx i ) 8 0, 1.5, 4.5, 9, 18, 30,
42 2-3-5 [] (1) 3 (2) 3-6 (3) 6-12 (4) (5) (6) (7)
43 (37.0) (2.1) (3.9) (5.8) (10.3) (12.4) (8.2) (20.3) (100.0) (80.0) (20.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) (60.9) (4.3) (13.0) (4.3) (4.3) (4.3) (0.0) (8.7) (100.0) (72.9) (3.4) (5.1) (8.5) (6.8) (1.7) (0.0) (1.7) (100.0) (41.8) (1.8) (3.6) (9.1) (10.9) (14.5) (5.5) (12.7) (100.0) (21.7) (2.5) (1.9) (4.3) (13.0) (16.8) (11.8) (28.0) (100.0) (95.7) (1.2) (0.8) (0.0) (1.2) (0.8) (0.0) (0.4) (100.0) (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) (94.0) (1.5) (3.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (1.5) (100.0) (97.2) (0.9) (0.0) (0.0) (1.9) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) (95.7) (2.2) (0.0) (0.0) (2.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (100.0) 37%48 20% % 5% x y age x age±2 1 68
44 2-3-7) <3> ** ** ** * *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** * ** *** <> ** *** <4> ** < > robust standard error****** 1510 <>
45 % B 2-3- C %48 29% 2-3- B
46 []
47 2000 (2009) pp (2006) (1995) 9 pp (1993) 9 pp (1996) Kotlikoff, Laurence J. and David A. Wise (1985) Labor compensation and the structure of private pension plans: evidence for contractual versus spot labor market, in D.A. Wise, ed., Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, University Chicago Press. Lazear, Edward P. (1979) Why is there mandatory retirement? Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 6, pp
48 2-3-A) <3> * *** * *** ** *** * *** *** ** * * * *** *** ** * *** *** ** * * <> *** *** <30> ** *** * * * * * *** * ** *** * * *** * *** *** * * *** *** * *** *** *** *** ** * *** <1960> * *** * ** *** ** * * * *** *** robust standard error******
49 2-3-B <9> ** *** *** * * * *** * *** *** * * * *** *** * *** *** * * * *** *** *** <> *** *** * *** *** *** *** * * * <30> * *** *** * * * *** *** *** *** *** * *** * *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** ** *** * * *** *** * < > robust standard error****** 1510
50 2-3-C <9> <> <500> ** * robust standard error******
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