土地税制の理論的・計量的分析
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1 54 III III 1971 m 2 16, , )
2 III ( m 2 ) () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , m , ,000 m 2 1,000 m ,000 m ) III III , III
3 56 III ) (1) (2)(3)(4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 10) III 3040km km km 2
4 III ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 78, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,421 87, ,909 65, , ,783 57, , ,683 53,635 53, ,669 51, , ,799 47,441 47, , ,144 43,942 41, ,387 38, , ,075 37,381 37, , ,432 37,028 35, ,268 35, , ,050 34,595 31, , ,565 31,723 31, ,226 30, , ,920 30,537 29, , ,935 28,867 28, ,982 27, , ,820 27,341 26, , ,008 26,539 26, ,682 26, , ,959 23,420 21, , ,491 20,703 20, ,924 19, ,008 19, ,675 16, III III3 GNP (10 ) () () () () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,313, ,450, I II 20) (36%) 57
5 58 III4 p c k km2cd w l τ m 2 y dummy1 dummy2 dummy3 dummy dummy dummy dummy7 dummy8 dummy9 1 2pckwlτy III (19) ),,,,,, ( 1 l w k c y P ƒ P τ + = ) )( )( )( )( ( ) ( ) ( k k 1.4 m 2
6 III5 m ) 22) k 23) 21 I II
7 III m III m m m m 2 III 699 m m m m m 2 46 m Chow T- IIIes of Equaliy of a Se of Regression Coeff- iciens in Two Regressions n1n2 60
8 III6 III ( ) ( )1971 ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) N.A N.A III () () N.A N.A 61
9 III III III m 2 62
10 III m 2 s 1s 2 s k s s 1s 2sd ss (20) F (k, n1n22k) (sdk) s (n1n22k) k, n 1n 22k F m 2 (20) n1136n2646 I (19) s1l.28s217.63k 16 F 8.76 F
11 III III P + 1 = α 0 + α1y 2 + α 2c 1 + α 3k + α 4k 1 α w P + 1 = α 0 + α1y 2 + α 2c 1 + α 3k + α 4k 1 + α 5w 1 + α 6l + α7τ 1 dummy1 + α 8τ 1 dummy2 + α 9τ 1 dummy3 + α10τ dummy1 + α11τ dummy α 12τ dummy3 + α13 + i dummy4 + i i = α 6l + α 7τ 1 dummy7 + α 8τ 1 dummy8 + α 9τ 1 dummy9 + α10τ dummy7 + α11τ dummy 8 + α12τ dummy 9 α y-2 α c-1 α k α k-1 α w-1 α l α τ-1dummy1 α τ-1dummy2 α τ-1dummy3 α τ dummy1 α τ dummy2 α τ dummy3 α α y-2 α c-1 α k α k-1 α w-1 α l α τ-1dummy7 α τ-1dummy8 α τ-1dummy9 α τ dummy7 α τ dummy8 α τ dummy9 α III III III III
12 III101 III β + β P + β y + β c + β + β P + β y + β c + P = β 4 + β 5w 1 + β 6l + β7τ dummy1 + β dummy 2 + 8τ β9τ dummy3 d 2 + β 10+ i ummy4 + i i = 0 k P = β 4 + β 5w 1 + β 6l + β7τ dummy7 + β d + 8τ ummy8 β9τ dummy9 k β p +1 β y-1 β c β k β w-1 β l β τ dummy1 β τ dummy2 β τ dummy3 β β p +1 β y-1 β c β k β w-1 β l β τ dummy7 β τ dummy8 β τ dummy9 β k k k III10 III10 III10 k 65
13 66 III m III III III 24) 24
14 67 III m 2 II III k III12 III12 m , , III ,000 m 2
15 III111 (100m 2 ) () ( ) () ( ) () (m 2 ) () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,036, , , , ,152, , , , ,254, , , , ,332, , , , ,389, , , , ,469, , , , ,547, , , , ,647, , , , ,712, , , , ,844, , , ,032, ,951, , , ,238, ,064, , , ,424, ,184, , , ,624, ,311, , , ,835, ,445, , , ,055, ,586, , , ,281, ,736, , , ,509, ,895, , , ,735, ,063, , , ,954, ,241, , , ,161, ,429, , , ,351, ,628, , m II
16 III112 (100m 2 ) () ( ) () ( ) () (m 2 ) () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,023, , , , ,127, , , , ,218, , , , ,281, , , , ,334, , , , ,384, , , , ,468, , , , ,538, , , , ,589, , , , ,674, , , , ,772, , , , ,874, , , , ,983, , , , ,098, , , , ,220, , , , ,349, , , , ,485, , , , ,629, , , , ,782, , , , ,943, , , ,031, ,114, , , ,093, ,294, , III III
17 III113 ( ) k III III III ,000 m ,000 m III ,000 m ,000 m
18 III12 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) ( ) () ( ) () () () III m III17 III
19 III12 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) ( ) () ( ) () () ()
20 III (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 11 ( ) () ( ) () () () () III (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 11 ( ) () ( ) () () () () III
21 III14 11 III ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 103,146 52, ,048 26, ,726 33, ,919 32, ,136 33, ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 103,146 56, ,048 28, ,726 35, ,919 34, ,136 35, ,022 44, ,445 25, ,905 19, ,599 34, ,972 17, ,497 34, ,533 23, ,369 24, ,415 31, , , ,488 32, , , ,056 50, ,314, , ,075 25, ,143 35, ,877 21, ,343 29, ,540 22, ,876 17, ,551 30, ,067 44, ,828 34, ,273 35, , , ,124 27, ,146 17, , , ,486 44, ,884 16, ,395 27, ,785 27, ,344 36, ,794 18, , , ,984 87, ,185 50, , , ,237 26, ,160 25, ,255 23, ,022 46, ,445 26, ,905 20, ,972 18, ,599 36, ,497 36, ,369 25, ,533 24, ,415 33, ,488 33, ,075 26, ,877 22, , , ,056 52, ,143 36, ,343 30, , , ,314, , ,876 17, ,540 23, ,551 31, ,067 45, ,828 35, ,146 17, ,124 28, ,273 36, ,884 16, ,486 45, , , , , ,395 27, ,785 27, , ,344 37, ,984 88, ,185 50, , , ,237 26, ,160 25, ,255 23, , ,
22 III m ,000 75
23 III m , , , m 2 76
24 III (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 12 ( ) () ( ) () () () () , III (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 12 ( ) () ( ) () () () () ,600 III , , , , ,
25 III (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 13 ( ) () ( ) () () () () III (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 13 ( ) () ( ) () () () () III
26 III ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 103,146 67, ,726 42, ,048 33, ,919 40, ,022 55, ,136 41, ,445 31, ,905 24, ,599 43, ,497 42, ,972 22, ,533 28, , , ,415 39, ,369 30, ,488 39, , , ,075 30, ,056 61, ,314, , ,877 26, ,143 42, ,343 35, ,540 27, ,876 20, ,551 36, ,067 53, ,828 41, ,146 20, ,273 41, ,124 32, , , ,486 52, ,884 19, , , ,395 31, ,785 31, ,794 21, ,344 42, , , , , ,185 56, ,237 29, , , ,160 28, ,255 26,
27 III19 11 (a) 150m 2 (b) 150m 2 (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 11) (b)(a) ( ) (b)(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 III19 12 (a) 150m 2 (b) 150m 2 (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 12) (b)(a) ( ) (b)(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
29 III19 13 (a) 150m 2 (b) 150m 2 (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 13) (b)(a) ( ) (b)(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
30 III20 11 (a)(e) (f) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 11) ,649.4 (c) (b)(a) ,304.1 (d) ( ) 4,712 7,017 9,302 5,762 8,578 11,372 (e) (f) (b)(d) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 11) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 6,531 9,725 12,891 5,755 8,568 11,359 (e) (f) (b)(d) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 11) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 4,565 6,796 9,009 4,913 7,315 9,697 (e) (f) (b)(d)
31 III20 12 (a)(e) (f) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 12) , ,097.2 (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 4,712 7,017 9,302 5,762 8,578 11,372 (e) (f) (b)(d) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 12) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 6,531 9,725 12,891 5,755 8,568 11,359 (e) (f) (b)(d) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 12) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 4,565 6,796 9,009 4,913 7,315 9,697 (e) (f) (b)(d)
32 III20 13 (a)(e) (f) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 13) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 4,712 7,017 9,302 5,762 8,578 11,372 (e) (f) (b)(d) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 13) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 6,531 9,725 12,891 5,755 8,568 11,359 (e) (f) (b)(d) (a) 150m 2 ( ) (b) 150m 2 ( 13) (c) (b)(a) (d) ( ) 4,565 6,796 9,009 4,913 7,315 9,697 (e) (f) (b)(d)
33 86 I II 25) II ) III 26
34 Kanemoo, Hayashi and wago
35 88 I W0 r r r e e R *P *τ P P P P P R e τ + = I
36 L 0 D 0 V = EU ( e r ) = 0 D 00 h L D W W 0 = PL0 + D 0 = PL + D I W = ( 1 + e) PL + (1 + r ) D Ih U E (U ) 1a I E { U(W ) } = E [U {(1 + e)pl + (1 + r ) D } I ] h ) Wdr + ( e r ) Wdh + {(1 + r ) + ( e r ) h} dw ] = 0 U W ( ) > 0 U ( W ) < 0 I h h EU' + EU" ( e r ) hw = = lnp τ EU" ( e r ) 2 W h PL h I W D 1 h I W I I EU (W ) V I I e e ln( P + R ) lnp τ I e I10 I EU ( d lnp dτ dr ) + EU" ( e r )[( d lnp dτ ) hw + (1 I11 I11 h EU' (1 h) EU" ( e r ) W = r EU" ( e r ) 2 W h W I12 I13 2 EU" ( e r ) h + EU" ( e r )(1 + r ) = 2 EU" ( e r ) W h EU" ( e r )(1 + r ) = W EU" ( e r ) 2 W I14 V = E { U ( W )} = E[ U {((1 + r ) + ( e r ) h )W } ] I h < 0 I15 r I5 I13 89
37 W L = h I19 P I I19 L W h ( W / P = + h ) W P P P P PL PL W Arrow (1971)Pra (1964) I2 h PLW W I20 h W 0 W D = L I21 I14 P P EU" ( e r ) h = 2 EU" ( e r ) W (1 + r ) W I16 I16 I12 I I21 ( W / P ) D = P P 0 2 I22 I22 I20 h h = P lnp P EU = 2 EU" ( e r ) W 2 h 1 + r < 0 I17 L W h = P P P L ( 1 h0 ) I23 P I12 I17 D + h( P τ h ) W h = P P h τ < 0 I18 PL0 h0 = I24 W I20 I23 L I19 W I6 L W h = W P W 90
38 h W ( W / P ) + h W = 0 I22 L ( W / P = h ) W W L W h = W ( W / P ) I20 L P W h = P P w p cons. L W + W P pricescons. I25 I25 I20 I23 I17 I20 I23 D I26 h I27 D 00 h 0 D 00h 0 D I26 I27 91
39 P P C τ I28 R + P + 1 P = C I r + τ P C P R + P P + 1 = r + τ 1 + r + τ I31 P C P I31 I30 P R + P + 1 ( P + C ) τ( P + C ) = r P + C I28 +1 P + C R + P + 1 = 1 + r +τ I29 I30 P R R + 1 P = r + τ (1 + r + τ ) P ( 1 + r + τ ) 2 C I32 R R + j j 92
40 q +1 R P q + 1 = C I r + τ q +1 q + 1 R P + 2 C = + r + τ (1 + r + τ ) 1 + r + τ 1 2 I34 I34 R < C ( r + τ + τ ) I36 τ I32 I34 τ C R I32 I 34 R = C ( r + τ ) I35 I35 I35 I35 τ τ I35 1 R C 1 rc τc RCrτ
41 PA PB R A(α) PA = C A I37 r + τ n P = ( 1 + r + τ ) R B (1 α) n (1 + r + τ ) 1 C B r + τ I38 R A ( α ) < 0 R B ( 1 α) < 0 I39 I29 n C ( 1 + r + τ ) 1 C I40 I40 α PAPB CA RA α 1α RA RB α PA PB PAPB α n α RA RB n PA PB CB n RB PAPB RB α α B A B I41 94
42 τ α I41 τ R A ( r + τ ) 2 R A dα + r + τ dτ R r + τ n B n n r 1 = ( τ ) + (1 + r + τ ) RB ( r + τ ) 2 R B dα r + τ dτ ( 1 n)(1 + r + τ ) n C B P A = P B 1 dα n [ R A + (1 + r + τ ) R B ] r + τ dτ = 1 (1 ) 1 n A + r + τ [ C r + τ C 1 n( 1 + r + τ ) τ n PB (1 + r + ) B ] C B I42 I42 d α / dτ I 39 I42 I40 dα dτ > 0 I43 2) τ A α Feldsein1977 Calvo Kolikoff and Rodrigu- ez
43 96 II II II II2 10
44 II
45 II (a) (b) (c) (a)(b)(c) 3 U. S. Deparmen of Commerce, Saiscal Absrac of he U.S II 16,549 23,815 26,963 38,960 39,406 41,405 55,509 63,221 68,368 5,240 20,417 23,118 8,349 8,444 8,873 13,589 28,861 31,991 21,789 44,232 50,081 47,309 47,850 50,278 69,098 92, ,359 98
46 II
47 II (a)(b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (bc) (b/a) (c/b) (ha) (ha) (ha) (ha) () () 37,522 30,307 24,510 5, ,716 27,722 23,384 4, ,979 7,649 6,609 1, ,507 9,579 8,469 1, ,740 4,610 3, ,542 6,688 5, ,241 42,566 35,030 7, ,765 43,989 37,655 6, m
48 I n n i = ij / ij RH KH KH j = j = n m m i ik ik RC = KC / KC 1 k = 1 k = 1 m I1 ij KH ij KC i RH i RC i PH i PC i UH i UC i P ij 89 i i PH = PH / (1 + RH [ ] ( = 89) i i i i i P = ( UH PH ) + ( UC PC ) i i / ( UH + UC ) PH PC i i = = ( 76 < < PC i n KH j = 1 ij 89 / n m ik [ KH 89 / m ] 89) = PC k = 1 i 89 + s ) s = 1 89 i i 89 / (1 + RC + s ) s = 1 [ ] 101
49 II I AB 3.3m m II-1 II m m 2 1/ m 2 1/2 102
50 II I II-2 LAKLASLAO TBKTBSTBO TBKTBS LAKCLASC LAKLAS LAKCLAK 1963 LASCLAS
51 II LAK TBK LAKC TBKC TRKC ( ) LAS TBS LASC TBSC TRSC ( ) LAO TBO ( ) TBKCTBSC TBA = ( TBK TBKC ) + ( TBS TBSC ) TRKCTRSC + TRKC + TRSC + TBO TBKC TRKCTBSCTRSC LAKC 81 TBA = 1 81 LAK LAK TRKC LAKC 1.2 TBA LAKC TBK TBS LAK
52 + TBO TBA = ( TBK TBKC ) + ( TBS TBSC ) + TRKC + TRSC + TBO TBA LAKC LAK = LAK 1 TRKC 85 LAKC LASC 84 LAS LAS TRSC 85 LASC TBO LASC TBS LAS TBA LAKC LAK LAK = 1 TRKC 85 LAKC 84 LAKC TBK LAK LAKC TBS LAK TBS + TBO 105
53 III
54 Arrow,k.,(1971) Essays in he Theory of Risk-Bearing, Norh Holland. Calvo, G.A., Lawrence Kolikoff and Carlos A. Rodriguez.,(1979) The Incidence of a Tax on Pure Ren: A New (?) Reason for an Old Answer, Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 87, No. 4, Chow, G. C., (1960) Tess of Equaliy beween Ses of Coeffciens in Two Linear Regressions, Economerica, Vol. 28, No. 3. Feldsein, M., (1977) The Surprising Incidence of Tax on Pure Ren:A New Answer o an Old Quesio- n, Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 85, No. 2, Fuller, W. A., and G. E. Baese., (1974) Esimaion of Liner Models Wih Crossederror Srucure, Journal of Economerics, Vol. 2, Hsiao, C., (1986) Analysis of Panel Daa, Cambridge Universiy. Kanemoo, Y., F, Hayashi, and H, Wago., (1987) An Economeric Analysis of a Capial Gain Tax on Land, The Economeric Sudies Quarerly Vol. 38, June McCallum, B. T., (1976) Raional Expecaions and he Naural Rae Hypohesis, Economerica. Vol. 44, No. 1,Jan Pra, J. W., (1964) Risk Aversion in he Small and in he Large, Economerica, Vol. 32, No 2, Jan. Apr. Ricardo, D., (1817) On The Principle of Poliical Economy and Taxaion, Gonner, Bell and Sons, 1891 ed. Tobin, J., (1969) A General Equilibrium Approach o Moneary Theory, Journal of Money, Credi and Banking, Vol. 1, Feb
財政赤字の経済分析：中長期的視点からの考察
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