財政赤字の経済分析:中長期的視点からの考察

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1 (ax smoohing (Barro(979

2 Barro(979 (consumpion smoohing Hall(978 Campbell(987 Barro(979 Hall(978 Campbell(987 Campbell(987

3 B ( r B G T ( ( r E B G T Y T/Y r ( No Ponzi Game ( [ Ω ] Y ( lim ( r B ( GDP (n 00 (3 Y ( ( [ ( n /( r ] [ ( n/( r ] g ( r b (4 ( ( ( r T ( r G ( r B g G/Y b B/Y 0 (3 No Ponzi Game Trehan and Walsh(988

4 (4 ( E [ Ω ] ( (5 i i (4 (5 [ ] (6 ( i R R E g i Ω (r - nb i 0 R (n/(r (5 ( GDP ( GDP 3 3 i ( i i i i ( i (

5 (6 GDP 4 Barro(979 [ ] [ ] log( B / B α0 απ α P ( G G / B α3 log( Y / Y( PG rb / B 7 B B G ( Y GDP P G Y GDP 3 Barro Hall(978 (5 Barro( Sahasakul(986 (6 4 Barro(979

6 Sahasakul(986 (6 X m α 0 α g α b α 3 X ε 3 0 g (6 / Huang and Lin (993 Ghosh(995 Campbell(987 Barro(979 GDP (5 (4

7 6 5 Ghosh(995 Campbell(987 ( GDP SUR g ( r n b (9 (6 (9 SUR i R i E [ g ] (0 i Ω i i i (0 SUR SUR (0 Campbell(987 (0 SUR VAR Z C ( L Z U 5 Sahasakul(986

8 p- Z (, g SUR, C(L C0 CL Λ Cp-L U p Z C0Z U 6 k E [ Ω ] Z i C k Z (0 SUR i i i R C (,0 Z 0 (,0RC (I-RC Z ( RC - 0 (I - RC 0 λ Λ λ 3 λ λ 4 ( SUR λ g λ SUR 0 Ghosh( Huang and Lin (993

9 96 88 Huang and Lin ( g Trehan and Walsh(988 Trehan and Walsh(988 r i T ( E ( ( rb ( r G i Ω r i 0 T G Mankiw(987 Mankiw(987 7 Huang and Lin(993 8 ( (6

10 Mankiw( Poerba and Roemberg(990 ( ( ( Mankiw(987 Poerba and Roemberg(990 ( ( (99 (99 9 Mankiw(987

11 (993 (993 Barro(979 Barro(979 (889 99(944 ( (993 (i 75 (ii 83 (iii 89 (993 (iphillips and Perron (iicochrane (iiihall(978 Phillips and Perron Cochrane Hall(978

12 (993 Campbell(987 Campbell(987 Ghosh(995 Huang and Lin(993 E( i i (3 (r( / (r( / (5 ( ( Γ G r (4 ( ( ( ( B G r T r

13 ln Γ ln Γ ln( r ln( G / Γ r k ( / ρ(ln G ln Γ (6 g ψ 0 0 ρ ( r g γ (7 0 g ln G ln g g -g - k Φ ( r ( T (8 φ 0 0 ρ ( r γ (9 lnt ln (6 Campbell and Mankiw(989 / /

14 (5 (8 ( ( / (b0 0 k (0 b0 ln 0 k 3 (7 (9 0 0 (0 (3 3 B/ B/ / ln ] [ln E Ω ] [ ] [ ln ln ] ln [ln ] ( [ ] [ ] [ y E y E y E y y y E E E Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω Ω (/ ( g s θ ρ

15 s E[ ρ ( g (/ θ y Ω ] ( y ln Y s (/ g (( / b ( i i ( ( Campbell(987 s g y VAR s g y p VAR C(L - u (s g y C(L C0 CL C -L - (L u Z (s s -P g g -P y y -P (

16 Z AZ - U E(Z A i Z ( λ Z ( h ( / θ k ρ A Z (3 l h k p p p (3 λ ( h (/ θ k ρ A ( h (/ θ k ρa( I ρa λ ( λ h ( / θ k ρ A (4 - s g ( / θ y (/ ρ s v (5 v E(v 0 4 s g y (5 (5 s g y (5 4 (5

17 s ( / (/ 0 s-i g -i g θ y ρ s a a i a i a3 i y-i a i a i a 3 i 0 p i i 5 p i p i ( (6 (T (G (B GDP ( (Y GDP( Schwarz Bayes ( p p p 3

18 s y (7 Wald Wald p ( s Wald p (993 ( Wald p ( (3 s (993 7 s (3 4 7 ( Hall(978

19 s λ Z ( λ h ( / θ k ρ AZ (8 ( (L (8 s s s ( T T Texp( (S -S T G (T -G (T-G

20 (9 ( T Y r C ω GDP r n 00 r n 9 GDP 30 3 (3 ( ( / T T T T C C (3 ( T Y C ω (30 ( T Y C ω

21 s b g s / (( / ( θ θ θ b g s / (( / ( θ θ θ ( s s θ [ ] ( ( [ ] ( ( s s Y Y ln ln ln ln ln ln ln θ ( [ ] (33 exp s s θ (33 (3

22 T C / C exp [ θ ( s s ] (34 T 34 s s C /C ( C/C C/C C/C C/C C/C S

23

24 970 Alesina and Tabellini(990 Alesina and Tabellini(

25 Alesina, Albero and Guildo Tabellini (990 "A Posiive Theory of Fiscal Deficis and Governmen Deb", Review of Economic Sudies 57, pp Barro, Rober (979 "On he Deerminaion of he Public Deb", Journal of Poliical Economy 87, pp Barro, Rober (98 "On he Predicabiliy of Tax-Rae Changes", NBER Working Paper, #636. Campbell, John (987 "Does Saving Anicipae Declining Labor Income? An Alernaive Tes of he Permanen Income Hypohesis", Economerica 55, pp Campbell, John and Gregory Mankiw (989 "Consumpion, Income and Ineres Raes: Reinerpreing he Time Series Evidence", in Oliver Blanchard and Sanley Fischer eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press. Ghosh, Aish (995 "Ineremporal Tax-Smoohing and he Governmen Budge Surplus: Canada and he Unied Saes", Journal of Money, Credi, and Banking 7(4, pp Hall, Rober (978 "Sochasic Implicaions of he Life Cycle-Permanen Income Hypohesis: Theory and Evidence", Journal of Poliical Economy 86, pp Huang, Chao-Hsi and Kenneh Lin (993 "Deficis, Governmen Expendiures, and Tax Smoohing in he Unied Saes: ", Journal of Moneary Economics 3(3, pp Mankiw, Gregory (987 "The Opimal Collecion of Seigniorage: Theory and Evidence", Journal of Moneary Economics 0(, pp Poerba, James and Julio Roemberg (990 "Inflaion and Taxaion wih Opimizing Governmens", Journal of Money, Credi, and Banking (, pp-8.

26 Sahasakul, Chaipa (986 "The U.S. Evidence on Opimal Taxaion over Time" Journal of Moneary Economics 8(3, pp5-75. Trehan, Bhara and Carl Walsh (988 "Common Trends, he Governmen's Budge Consrain, and Revenue Smoohing", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Conrol (/3, pp Trehan, Bhara and Carl Walsh (990 "Seigniorage and Tax Smoohing in he Unied Saes ", Journal of Moneary Economics 5(, pp97-. ( ,. (993 3,. (99, pp66-73,.

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金融政策の波及経路と政策手段

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