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1 Hosono Toyoki % % % ,446, % ,589, % ,297, % ,597, % U.S. Electoral College / U.S. National Archives and Records Administration archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/historical.html. No

2 % % % % % % 3 29% % % % 53% 0% 56% 55% 1% 13% 13% 0% 95% 93% 2% 9% 10% 1% 67% 71% 4% % 19% 1% 66% 60% 6% 28% 29% 1% 50% 47% 3% 39% 38% 1% 89% 92% 3% 5 38% 41% 3% 60% 60% 0% 21% 18% 3% 59% 58% 1% No

3 % Bureau of Labor Statistics cpsaat03.pdf; battleground states No

4 %7%7% 7% % 90% 90% 7% 7% 7% U.S. Electoral College / U.S. National Archives and Records Administration % 52.9% 58.2% 61.6% 3.4% % 53.7% 70.3% 71.0% 0.7% % 55.5% 57.1% 57.0% 0.1% % 54.2% 69.9% 69.4% 0.5% % 56.4% 72.5% 72.4% 0.1% % 51.5% 64.6% 66.9% 2.4% % 51.0% 63.5% 66.1% 2.7% % 52.7% 66.4% 67.0% 0.7% % 49.9% 64.6% 65.5% 0.8% % 54.7% 59.4% 63.6% 4.2% % 54.4% 70.1% 71.7% 1.6% % U.S. Electoral College / U.S. National Archives and Records Administration federal-register/electoral-college/historical.html. No

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8 %2%4 3 1 GM % 2 No

9 economic patriotism 17 GM USA 2012 wine track beer track 5 Metropolitan Statistical AreaMSA MSA No

10 MSAMSA MSA2012MSA 2 IT 2008 Loudoun10%Arapahoe3.8%Osceola12% 2008 ascendents No

11 2008 IT 2012 IT VEP % 9 7% H W Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, Local Area Unemployment Rate UPDATE 6: Xu Chen, Modeling the 2012 Presidential Race, Moody s Analytics, February 27, com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=228803&tid=5fcb4bbf-d d-bd25-bff7d505d Bruno Jerôme and Véronique Jerôme-Spezlari, Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from State-by-State Political Economy Model, PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin, The End of the Line: Playbook 2012 ebook, New York: Random House, 2012, Location Lydia Saad, Obama Ahead in 10-Point Favorability Measure, 62% to 55%: Trends suggest this is not a perfect predictor of victory in the election, Gallup, November 1, No

12 ahead-point-favorability-measure.aspx. 11 Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin, op. cit., Location UPDATE news.php?id= UPDATE project/news.php?id= UPDATE % 23.2% Mitt Romney, Let Detroit Go Bankrupt, The New York Times, November 18, nytimes.com/2008/11/19/opinion/19romney.html?src=mv&_r=0#38;ref=general. 17 James R. Hagerty, Once Made in China: Jobs Trickle Back to U.S. Plants, WSJ.com, May 21, online.wsj.com/article/sb html filibuster 19 Dan Balz, Obama vs. Romney: The Take on Election 2012 The Washington Post ebook, New York: Diversion Books, 2012, Location Leslie Kaufman and Kate Zernike, Activists Fight Green Projects, Seeing U.N. Plot, The New York Times, February 3, pagewanted=all N R 2 % % % % ** p 0.05 p %1% BLS No

1996年の米国大統領選挙と政治資金

1996年の米国大統領選挙と政治資金 ,,,,,,,, Feb,,. , Citizens Research Foundation. John C. Green, ed., Financing the 1996 Election (New York, Shrpe, ), p.,,,,,,, Feb,.,,.. .. Citizens Research Foundation. John C. Green, ed., op, cit., Financing