橡ミサイル防衛最終版.PDF
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1 IPSHU No.28 April, 2002 TEL FAX E_mail: URL:
2 C 2 2 passive defense active defense B ICBM
3 damage-limiting prevail Ballistic Missile Defense, BMD civil defense MD MD 2 BMD ABM ICBM ABM 2 80 Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI interceptor Hit-To-Kill, HTK X 2
4 MD 3 3
5 NMD NMD SDI SDI Global Protection Against Limited Strike, GPALS Bottom-Up Review, BUR NMD Theater Missile Defense, TMD (1) TMD TMD ABM TMD ABM ABM ABM TMD ABM ABM TMD ABM TMD TMD Demarcation Accords 4
6 1992 ABM (1) Launch on Warning, LOW 1 (2) (3) ABM ABM 3 (2) 5
7 ( MIT ) ( ) TMD 3, TMD ABM ABM TMD TMD Navy Theater Wide, NTW Light Exo-Atmospheric Projectile, LEAP Theater High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD ABM (3) 6
8 BMD TMD NMD TMD (1) unilateralism unipolar hegemony R.A. New Isolationism 1950 Cooperative Security (4) CTBT (5) 7
9 NPT Counterproliferation rogue states of concern (6) W. J. (7) NMD NMD NMD NMD (8) (2) NMD 3 WMD 8
10 National Intelligence Estimate, NIE D. H NIE (9) multistaging WMD 9
11 NMD (10) (11) accidental inadvertent unauthorized C 3 I
12 NMD (12) (3) NMD NMD NMD 1980 SDI NMD SDI NMD NMD NMD NMD SDI ICBM countermeasures 11
13 NMD NMD 2 (1) NMD NMD CBO CBO CBO CBO NMD 200 Peña & Corny, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, p
14 2 (2) ( ) ( ) 99 (ABL) ( ) M.O Hanlon, Star Wars Strikes Back, Foreign Affairs, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp ( ) NMD NMD NMD (13) (1) Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), National Missile Defense ( ): An Overview, pp.3-4. (2) M. Bunn, Yeltsin Suggest Joint Missile Defense, Arms Control Today (ACT), Jan./Feb. 1992, pp.38, 49; The Bush-Yeltsin Summit: Bringing Reality to the Nuclear Balances, Ibid., July/Aug. 1992, pp.18-19; Bunn, The ABM Talks: The More Things Change., Ibid., Sept.1992, pp.16, (3) ABM ABM-TMD G. Lewis & T. Postol, Portrait of a Bad Idea, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/Aug. 1997, pp.21-23; J. Pike & M. Corbin, Taking Aim at the ABM Treaty: THAAD and U.S. Security, Arms Control Today, May 1995, p.5. 13
15 (4) J. Cirincione, The Assault on Arms Control, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan./Feb. 2000, p.33. (5) M. T. Clark, Arms Control is not Enough, Orbis, Winter 1996, pp.78-79; K.B. Payne, The Case for National Missile Defense, Ibid., Spring 2000, pp ; J. Cirincione, The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain, Foreign Policy, Spring 2000, pp ; W. Kristol & R. Kagan, Toward a Neo-Reganite Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 1996, pp (6) M. T. Clark, The Trouble with Collective Security, Orbis, Spring 1995, pp ; K. B. Payne, Post-Cold War Deterrence and Missile Defense, Ibid., pp (7) Clark, Orbis, Spring 1995, pp ; Orbis, Winter 1996, p.73. (8) I. H. Daalder, J. M. Goldgeier & J. M. Lindsay, Deploying NMD: Not Whether, But How, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.6-7, (9) (10) M. O Hanlon, Star Wars Strikes Back, Foreign Affairs, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp (11) / NMD C. L. Glaser & S. Fetter, National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, International Security, Summer 2001, pp (12) C. V. Peña & B. Corny, National Missile Defense: Examining the Options, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, pp.6-9; D. A. Wilkening, BMD and Strategic Stability, Adelphi Paper No. 334, May 2000, pp (13) W. B. Slocombe, The Administration s Approach, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, p
16 NMD BMD TMD NMD NMD NMD 2005 NMD NMD NMD (1) (1) HTK (2) NMD X ABM (3) X X (4) Space Baced Infra-Red System High Earth Orbit, SBIRS-High DSP SBIRS-Low 6 SBIRS-High 24 SBIRS-Low (5) C 3 15
17 NMD NMD 3 NMD (1) 1 C X 1 5 DSP SBIRS NMD BMDO 3 NMD 1999 NMD 2002 NMD NMD NMD (2) (2) 2 C
18 3 X 2010 SBIRS-Low (3) C X X (3) NMD NMD NMD NMD NMD ABM NMD NMD NMD
19 NMD (4) NMD NMD TMD 18
20 MD ABM MD 2008 (1) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, p.30; Peña & Conry, op. cit., pp (2) Peña & Conry, pp.13-14, 16. (3) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp.30-32; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp (4)
21 MD MD (1) MD NMD WMD NMD NMD (1) NMD WMD WMD sameness 20
22 togetherness WMD NMD TMD (2) comprehensive or constructive engagement MD MD MD 21
23 WMD WMD NMD NMD ICBM ICBM (3) Single-Shot Probability of Kill, SSPK SSPKs NMD 25 NMD (4) MD MD 22
24 submunitions (5) SDI (6) MD boost-phase terminal-phase mid-course NMD Boost-Phase Intercept, BPI 23
25 BPI BPI BPI NMD BPI ICBM ICBM BPI MD BPI (7) BPI 70~150 ICBM ~300 20~ (8) BPI BPI BPI BPI BPI BPI 24
26 SPI BPI BPI BPI UAVs Airborne Interceptor, ABI ABI BPI BPI MD ABI BPI ICBM ICBM ABI ICBM ABI ABI ABI ABI UAVs (9) BPI ABM ABM 5 MD BPI ABM BPI ICBM 25
27 TMD NMD TMD BMD TMD TMD NMD NMD TMD TMD NMD TMD NMD TMD NMD TMD MD TMD ~30 3 Patriot Advanced Capability-3, PAC-3 Navy Area Defense, NAD THAAD NTW THAAD PAC-3 TMD NMD 26
28 (10) TMD NMD TMD NMD TMD NMD TMD ( ) TMD TMD PAC-3 NAD 27
29 THAAD NTW TMD TMD 650 THAAD NTW THAAD NTW NMD 650 START- 1,700 (11) MD TMD NMD THAAD NTW TMD NMD NTW BPI NMD NMD SPY-1B ICBM 28
30 NMD SPY-1B NMD 200 (12) 12 2 (1) MD ABM MD ABM ABM ICBM 1 3 MD 3 6 a 2 9 (13) TMD TMD ABM 3, TMD TMD NMD NMD TMD ABM 5 29
31 MD ABM ICBM MD 1 MD ABM MD ABM ABM 15 6 ABM ABM (14) 12 ABM MD ABM MD ABM MD 30
32 MD (15) (16) ABM MD ABM MD 1980 SDI ABM MD ABM (1) W. J. Nov (2) K. Payne, Looking Security Threats: The Case for National Missile Defense, Orbis, Spring 2000, pp (3) G. Lewis, L. Gronland & D. Wright, National Missile Defense: An Indefensible System, Foreign Policy, Winter 1999/2000, pp ; S. Snyder, Pyong-yang s Pressure, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, pp (4) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No. 334, pp (5) G. N. Lewis, T. A. Postol & J. Pike, Why National Missile Defense Won t Work, Scientific American, Aug. 1999, pp ; Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No. 334, pp ;L. L. Garwin, A Defense that Will Not Defend, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, pp NIE ICBM C. L. Glaser & S. Fetter, National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, International 31
33 Security, Summer 2001, p.51. (6) (7) R. L. Garwin, Boost-Phase Intercept: A Better Alternative, Arms Control Today, Sept. 2000, pp. 8-9, 11; Wilkening, Amending the ABM Treaty, Survival, Spring 2000, pp J Glaser & Fetter, op, cit., pp.53-54, (8) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, p.61. (9) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, p.59-60, 65, 67-69; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp (10) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp (11) Ibid., pp (12) Peña & Conry, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, pp (13) Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp (14) (15) J. Newhouse, The Missile defense Debate, Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 2001, pp MD M. Krepon, Lost in Space, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2001, pp (16) A. A. Pikayev, Moscow s Matrix, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, pp
34 MD MD (2) MD ABM MD MD TMD BPI NMD 1 C NMD (1) NMD 2 C-2 3 C-3 MD 1, (2) MD NMD 33
35 (1) MD NMD 1 C MD BPI MD MD MD (3) (2) MD MD MD MD MD MD START- START- ICBM SLBM ICBM 34
36 SLBM ICBM ICBM M SS-27 ICBM (4) (3) S300 (5) MD ABM NMD MD MD (1) MD MD (2) MD NATO MD 35
37 (3) MD (4) ABM ABM (6) NMD S. NMD NMD NMD NMD N National MD (7) NMD GMD MD MD G. NATO (8) MD ABM 36
38 15 ABM MD ABM MD ICBM 2 MD (9) ABM MD MD ABM (1) ABM MD MD (10) (2) (3) 37
39 NATO (11) MD 5 MD No.2 P. J. ABM MD (12) MD 1999 MD MD BMD MD 38
40 MD MD SLBM ICBM 5 A 1 ICBM ICBM ICBM (13) ICBM NMD MD MD (14) MD ICBM 5 31 SLBM 2 MRV/MIRV = 2 (15) 39
41 (LOW) N.Y. MD MD MD NIRA MD (16) strategic reassurance (17) MD MD (1) 1,000~1,300 Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p.37. (2) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp.37-41, 44; Peña & Conry, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, pp (3) Daalder & Others, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.15, 19; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p
42 (4) Daalder & Others, op. cit., p.21; Wikening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.30, 38-39; Glaser & Fetter, op. cit., pp J (5) Daalder & Others, op. cit., pp.21-22; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p (6) C. Grand, Missile Defense: The View from the Other Side of the Atlantic, Arms Control Today (ACT), Sept. 2000, pp.14-17; A. J. Pierre, Europe and Missile Defense: Tactical Considerations, Fundamental Concerns, ACT, May 2001, pp SDI D. S. Yost, Ballistic Missile Defense and the Atlantic Alliance, International Security, Fall 1982, pp (7) Pierre, op. cit., p.8. (8) (9) (10) Daalder & Others, op. cit., p.15; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p.38,43. (11) (12) (13) Daalder & Others, Survival, Spring 2000, p.13. (14) J. Mendelsohn, ACT, April 2000, p.14; Glaser & Fetter, op. cit., pp.58, 81-84; L. Fuerth, Return of the Nuclear Debate, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001, pp (15) B. Roberts, R. A. Manning & R. N. Montaperto, China: The Forgotten Nuclear Power, Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 2000, pp B. Roberts, The Road Ahead for Arms Control, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2000, p.222. CIA W. J Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp (16) (17) Daalder & Others, Survival, Spring 2000, p
43 MD TRW NMD TMD MD MD MD WMD 3 WMD MD WMD WMD MD NPT WMD MD MD 42
44 (1) MD MD MD MD (1) MD 2003 MD (2) MAD ABM MAD 43
45 MAD MD ,700 2,250 MD MD Nuclear Posture Review, NPR (2) (3) MD NMD MD BPI 44
46 WMD MD MD MD MD MD ICBM SS ICBM SS-27 M (3) SLBM START ICBM START START- ABM START- MD 45
47 20 ICBM 5 A ICBM 31 MD MRV MIRV SLBM (4) TMD MD NATO MD MD MAD ABM MAD MAD 46
48 MAD MD MAD MAS (5) (4) MD NMD TMD TMD NTWD TMD ABM 4 NMD TMD MD BPI (6) BPI ICBM 3 ABM 9 BPI 47
49 TMD NMD MD MD 3 TMD MD (1) MD 9.11 L. J. Korb & A. Tiersky The End of Unilateralism? Arms Control After Sept. 11, Arms Control Today, Oct. 2001, pp.3-7. (2) (3) Russian Nuclear Forces, 2001, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2001, pp (4) Chinese Nuclear Nuclear Forces, 2001, Ibid., Sept./Oct. 2001, pp (5) M. MAD MAS (6)
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