Microsoft PowerPoint - 1_11_50_Introduction of Japanese new activity for SWx ?PSTEP_Mamoru Ishii
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1 INTRODUCTION OF RECENT JAPANESE SWX ACTIVITY, PSTEP PROJECT Mamoru Ishii National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan
2 What is Space Weather? 2
3 Coronal Hall CME/CIR Soalr flare 3 Relation of Needs-Seeds in SWx High speed solar wind Plasma cloud X-ray Increase of high energy particle Solar Terr. Phys. Sun IPS Magnetosphere/Ionosphere influence Social hazard/needs Academic institutes Study of unknown process Disturbance of magnetosphere Increase radiatoin Increase of high energy particle Disturbance of ionosphere Ionization of lower ionophsere Increase of electron density Increase of ionospheric current Expanding upper atmosphere Ground conductivity distribution Death Valley SWx the social needs Satellite anomar y Human radiation HF propagation Disability of GNSS Change the satellite orbit GIC Death Valley Hazard to satellite operation Hazard to human activity in space Hazard to aviation Hazard to telecom, broadcast Hazard to positioning society Hazard to power line SWx becomes Indispensable information for their task
4 Status and problem Present Status Lack of scientific understandings for SWx Occurrence of flare mechanism, variation of radiation belt etc Present SWx forecast is mainly based on statistic method Scale of solar flare (A/B/C/M/X) => scale of geomagnetic disturbance (1/2/3/4) Issues to be solved Difficulty to predict significant event we have never experienced Difficulty to connect between SWx various phenomena and social effects
5 Structure of the project There are four working groups in PSTEP A01: space weather forecast group A02: Solar storm group A03: Geomagnetism group A04: Solar cycle and climate group
6 PSTEP-A01: next generation space weather forecast Issues to be solved The effect of SWx to high concentrated ICT society is unknown It is necessary to establish an integrated space weather system in the society against significant space weather event in the next solar cycle. Most of potential users do not know the importance of SWx.: necessary to communicate to them actions Build a system to provide a useful information for users Identified simulation model among sun/solar wind/magnetosphere/ionosphere Establish Japanese original hazardous map to make sure the next solar cycle Solar-Terre. Phys coordinate SWx effect communications society Total coordinate:hazardous map
7 Sub Group in A01 Radio propagatio SG Satellite Anomary SG Human radiation SG GIC SG Model Integrated SG Hazardous map SG
8 Product to be created Radio propagation simulator GIC hazardous warning system Human radiation estimation system Taylor-made Space weather satellite Warning system
9 Sample of radio propagation simulator
10 EPB (Equatorial Plasma Bubble)
11 Initial purpose Purpose of establishing the radio propagation simulator Is to estimate the disabled area of HF, VHF and satellite positioning. We discuss the interface of the product with users of GNSS Final goal Is to build the forecast system of radio propagation disturbance with ionospheric perturbation using the results of A02 04 groups
12 Taylor-made space weather for satellite anomaly Constructing a system for alerting satellite anomaly considering with the spec of each satellite
13 Purpose of Estimation system of human exposure Initial purpose Is to establish the system for providing the present radiation level in the airplane when the large proton event is occurred to happen to the GLE events. Final goal Is to develop the system to provide the forecast of temporal variation of human radiation in the airplane with several hours from the event occurred. And to develop the system to estimate the nowcast and forecast of human radiation in ISS
14 Requirements from the estimation system of human exposure Radiation on the airplane SEP flux at 86km of height (larger than ~100MeV as a function of lat. lon. and energy) Radiation on the ISS SEP flux along the ISS orbit (larger than ~30MeV as a function of energy) As soon as possible from the occurrence of events
15 Power line hazardous system We will make necesarry arrangements with users e.g., TEPCO coordinating with A03 group. And we will provide hazardous map in case of extreme events and prepare manual. Requirements:we need to grasp the threshold of extreme event in which the social effect becomes critical.
16 Building Integrated model from the sun to the Earth Another mission of A01: communicate / cooperate among the scientists in different fields in STP. Connecting models / codes in three fields; solar wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere
17 Roadmap to develop the application Radio propagation simulator Nowcast ionspheric condition Taylor-made space weather Estimaion system of human Radiation GIC hazardous system Discuss the concept, planning develop valdate Nowcast, connecting several models planning develop validate Connecting with radio propagation simulator planning Develop SEP Nowcast model Working with A03 Improving models Planning information system Nowcast with WASAVIES Establisi ng Beta ver. of informati on system High speed, integrate d Communica te with users evaliation Discussing how to show hazardous maps Establisin g informatio n system establish ment evaliation
18 Learning Hazardous maps in foreign countries/industries
19 Economic loss in case of Carrington event Regions Best Worst US, Canada 128, ,866 Scandinavia, 28,903 37,210 UK Central 73,934 95,185 Europe Total 102, ,395 Europe Japan 41,746 53,745 Australia 7,617 9, Carrington levcel flares occurs on July 23 but not hit the Earth Ref.:economic loss in East Japan Earthquake: 100, ,000 (mil. Dollers) Reference: SWISS Re, Space Weather Workshop 2014, April 8-11, 2014, Boulder US.
20 Lloyd s said the most dangerous city against the Solar storm is Tokyo
21 Establishing SWx user committee NICT has been communicating with the SWx users in the framework of SWx users forum more than 10 years. We will establish SWx user cummittee under the framework of PSTEP for detailed commuication with users requirements The kickoff meeting was held on Feb.5.
22 Workshop on Space Weather Forecast Method at NICT (Dec. 10, 2015) 22 NICT presented the method of SWx forecast in detail and discuss where we can improve with cutting-edge results getting on PSTEP. In addition, we introduced validation methods which are discussed in international framework.
23
24 The largest SWx event on record 24 Carrington Event (Sep. 1-2, 1859) 電信線が帯電 電信オフィスが発火 非常に明るいオーロラが発生し 夜でも新聞が読めた
25
26 もし現在キャリントン級の現象が起こったら? 経済的損失の計算 Regions Best Worst 米国 カナダ 128, ,866 スカンジナビ 28,903 37,210 ア 英国 独 仏 伊 73,934 95,185 瑞 墺 欧州全体 102, ,395 日本 41,746 53,745 豪州 7,617 9,806 潜在的 地球レベルの影響は本計算に含んでいない 東日本大震災の経済損失 : 100, ,000 ( 百万ドル ) Unit; 百万ドル Reference: SWISS Re, Space Weather Workshop 2014, April 8-11, 2014, Boulder US.
27 米国は 宇宙天気を地震や津波と並べ 米国戦略的国家危機評価 (US Strategic National Risk Assessment) の一つとして検討
28 US National Space Weather Strategy Nov 2014 Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force is established 28 Tasked to develop: National Space Weather Strategy* Space Weather Action Plan * Draft copy available here:
29 世界の宇宙天気 ( 運用 ) 関係組織 29 国連 国際科学会議 (ICSU) 宇宙平和利用委員会 (UN/COPUOS) 国際民間航空機関 (ICAO) 世界気象機構 (WMO) 国際宇宙環境サービス (ISES) ISWI (International Space Weather Initiative) WG 2009~2011 Long-Term Sustainability WG 2011~2014 Regular session 2015~ IAVSWOPSG (International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group) 2009~ WG-MISD (Meteorological Information and Service Development) 2015~ ICTSW (International Coordinate Team for Space Weather) 2009~ Space Weather Workshop (NOAA) European Space Weather Week Asia-Oceania Space Weather Alliance (NICT) 2010~
30 ISES: 国際宇宙環境サービス (17 か国が加盟 ESA が Collaborative Expert Center として参加 ) 局所的電離圏観測や地磁気観測の地上観測網が充実している他 独自の宇宙天気数値予測モデル ( 太陽風 磁気圏 電離圏 ) の開発を実施 太陽監視衛星 太陽風監視衛星 静止軌道衛星など多くの衛星を運用し データを提供 ワルシャワ ( ポーランド ) グラーツ ( オーストリア ) ルンド ( スウェーデン ) モスクワ ( ロシア ) エクセター ( 英国 ) 北京 ( 中国 ) ボルダー ( 米国 ) ISES 本部 (NOAA) オタワ ( カナダ ) ブリュッセル ( ベルギー ) NICT プラハ ( チェコ共和国 ) ジェジュ ( 韓国 ) 東京 ( 日本 ) メキシコシティ ( メキシコ ) ニューデリー ( インド ) サンジョセドスカンポス ( ブラジル ) ヘルマナス ( 南アフリカ共和国 ) シドニー ( オーストラリア ) 30 国際協力によって宇宙天気予報を推進
31 ICAO/WG-MISD 31 国際民間航空機関 (ICAO) 第 3 付属書 : 航空機の運行責任者等に提供しなければならない気象情報を規定 現在 宇宙天気情報を含めるよう第 3 付属書の改定が進められている 2020 年代には 宇宙天気情報が航空運用に不可欠な情報として使用される見込み 短波通信 衛星測位 被ばく 短波通信のみが可能な領域 航空運用
32 4/6/ Space Weather Sub-Group Activities No Activity Predecessor Due Date. 3.1 Revised Space Weather Concept of Operations for endorsement May 2016 by the MET Panel 3.2 Space weather information performance requirements for 3.1 June 2016 endorsement by the MET Panel 3.3 Space Weather Center selection criteria for endorsement by the 3.2 July 2016 MET Panel 3.4 Proposals for Amendment of ICAO Annex 3 with respect to space weather information 3.1 September Space Weather Information Manual 3.1 and 3.2 September 2017
33 Space Wx Webex/Meeting Schedule 21 July UTC 30 Sep UTC TBD Oct UTC Webexes and Face-to-Face Meetings Nov 2015 Washington TBD Dec UTC TBD Jan UTC TBD Feb UTC TBD Mar UTC TBD Apr 2016 Boulder CO (Tentative) TBD May UTC TBD June 2016 Montreal (Tentative) 13 TBD July UTC Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Select Teams to Complete Final Space Wx ConOps and Mature Functional/ Performance Requirements Complete Final Space Wx ConOps Complete Final Performance Requirements Complete Final Space Wx SARPs for Amendment 78 Endorse Final Space Wx ConOps, Space Wx Performance Requirements, and SARPs Complete Final Space Wx Center Selection Criteria Endorse Space WG-MISD Wx Center Rapporteur Selection Criteria Endorses Revised ConOps, Performance Requirements, and Space Wx Center Selection Criteria 4/6/2016
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