教育収益率の地域差と地域移動効果―JGSS データを用いた所得関数の分析―
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1 JGSS A JGSS Data-based Analysis of Rate of Return to Education: Focusing on the Regional Difference and Migration Kouhei HIRAGI Graduate School of Education The University of Tokyo This paper aims to clarify the difference between the rate of return to education in urban and local areas in Japan, focusing on the relation to regional migration with university entrance and employment. The analysis by the Mincer earnings function based on JGSS data found that the rate of return to education in rural areas is higher than in urban areas. This finding can be called Chiswick s hypothesis in Contemporary Japan and suggests that both educational background and migration are deeply tied in Japan, where universities and big companies are concentrated in the urban region. In addition, the rate of an average person from local area is higher than the one from city inside according to the analysis only in the urban region. This trend is particularly remarkable among the young graduates, who enrolled at the university in the era when the forced movement was stable. From these findings, the author claims that we should fairly evaluate a role of local prefectures which have been sending the talented youth to the city, especially to Tokyo metropolitan area. Key Words: JGSS, rate of return to education, regional migration JGSS Mincer Chiswick JGSS 273
2 JGSS Mincer Moretti 2004 Spillover Chiswick 1974 Chiswick Chiswick Chiswick Chiswick 274
3 1.2.2 Chiswick Chiswick a b Mincer Chiswick 1 1 Chiswick 4 Chiswick JGSS JGSS 275
4 (1) Mincer JGSS Mincer Mincer Mincer 2 1 (2) Ln Mincer 2006 (3) 量的変数 度数 欠損数 最小値 最大値 平均値 標準偏差 年収 ( 万円, 中央値 ) Ln 年収 ( 万円, 中央値 ) 就労年数 質的変数 度数 欠損数 % 有効 % 中卒 高卒 最終学歴 短大 高専卒 大卒以上 合計 三大都市圏 現住地 非大都市圏 合計
5 Chiswick Mincer 1 Chiswick ( 万円 ) % +16.2% (N=445) (N=336) 三大都市圏 (N=787) (N=337) 非大都市圏 大卒未満 大卒以上 Chiswick Chiswick Chiswick 277
6 3.2.2 Mincer Mincer 2 3 b e Chiswick Mincer Chiswick (4) 2 Mincer 従属変数 :Ln 年収 ( 万円, 中央値 ) 全国計 3 大都市圏 非大都市圏 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 定数 *** *** *** 就労年数 *** *** *** ( 就労年数 ) ** *** [ref: 高卒 ] 中卒ダミー *** * *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) 短大 高専卒ダミー *** * ** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) 大卒以上ダミー *** *** *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) 決定係数 (R 2 ) 自由度補正済み決定係数 (Adj. R 2 ) 有意確率 (F 値に基づく ) N = ***:0.1% 未満で有意,**:1% 未満で有意,*:5% 未満で有意, :10% 未満で有意 Chiswick Chiswick 2 (5)
7 30.0% 25.0% 計 22.5% 計 21.9% 11.8% 計 29.3% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 13.8% 8.7% 9.9% 12.0% 17.5% 大卒以上 大卒未満 0.0% 25~34 歳 35~44 歳 45~54 歳 (6) ( 万円 ) (N=101) 1 3 (N=90) 流入者 (N=341) (N=244) 滞留者 大卒未満 大卒以上 学歴効果 地域移動効果 3 279
8 C 2 6 t (7) 滞留 大卒未満 2 流入 大卒未満 1 滞留 大卒未満 3 滞留 大卒以上 1 滞留 大卒未満 2 流入 大卒未満 3 滞留 大卒以上 4 流入 大卒以上 2 流入 大卒未満 4 流入 大卒以上 4 流入 大卒以上 3 滞留 大卒以上滞留者の流入者の大卒未満の大卒以上の ( クロス収益率 Ⅰ) ( クロス収益率 Ⅱ) 学歴効果学歴効果地域移動効果地域移動効果 21.3% *** 13.9% * 18.6% *** 11.4% * 35.1% *** 2.2% (t 検定 )***:0.1% 未満で有意,**:1% 未満で有意,*:5% 未満で有意, :10% 未満で有意 Mincer Mincer 4 Mincer 4 A. B C (8) D. b (9) 280
9 4 Mincer 従属変数 :Ln 年収 ( 万円, 中央値 ) 三大都市圏のみ 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 定数 *** *** *** 就労年数 *** *** *** ( 就労年数 ) *** *** *** [ref: 高卒 ] 中卒以下ダミー * * :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 短大 高専卒ダミー * * :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 大卒以上ダミー *** *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) ブロック外からの流入ダミー *** *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 決定係数 (R 2 ) 自由度補正済み決定係数 (Adj. R 2 ) 有意確率 (F 値に基づく ) N = A. 基本モデル [ 再掲 ] B. 流入効果モデル C. 主効果モデル 従属変数 :Ln 年収 ( 万円, 中央値 ) 三大都市圏のみ 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 非標準化係数 (b) ( 標準誤差 ) 定数 *** *** 就労年数 *** *** ( 就労年数 ) *** [ref: 高卒 ブロック内滞留 ] 中卒以下 ブロック内滞留ダミー ** *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 短大 高専卒 ブロック内滞留ダミー ** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 大卒以上 ブロック内滞留ダミー *** *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 中卒以下 ブロック外からの流入ダミー :Exp(b) ( N.S. ) ( N.S. ) 高卒 ブロック外からの流入ダミー ** :Exp(b) ( N.S. ) ( ) 短大 高専卒 ブロック外からの流入ダミー :Exp(b) ( N.S. ) ( N.S. ) 大卒以上 ブロック外からの流入ダミー *** *** :Exp(b) ( ) ( ) 決定係数 (R 2 ) 自由度補正済み決定係数 (Adj. R 2 ) 有意確率 (F 値に基づく ) D. 交互作用モデル N = 770 ***:0.1% 未満で有意,**:1% 未満で有意,*:5% 未満で有意, :10% 未満で有意 10% 水準でも有意とならない独立変数のべき乗は省略してある (N.S.) 参考 非大都市圏
10 ( 万円 ) (N=109) (N=105) (N=127) (N=25) 1 滞留 大卒未満 2 流入 大卒未満 (N=44) (N=32) (N=83) 3 滞留 大卒以上 (N=72) (N=89) (N=35) (N=30) 45~54 歳 (N=25) 35~44 歳 25~34 歳 4 流入 大卒以上 t 滞留 大卒未満 2 流入 大卒未満 1 滞留 大卒未満 3 滞留 大卒以上 3 滞留 大卒以上 4 流入 大卒以上 2 流入 大卒未満 4 流入 大卒以上 滞留者の 流入者の 大卒未満の 大卒以上の 学歴効果 学歴効果 地域移動効果 地域移動効果 1 滞留 大卒未満 4 流入 大卒以上 2 流入 大卒未満 3 滞留 大卒以上 ( クロス収益率 Ⅰ) ( クロス収益率 Ⅱ) 25~34 歳 -1.7% 21.0% * 7.7% 32.6% *** 30.3% *** -8.7% 35~44 歳 25.6% *** 8.0% 24.0% *** 6.6% 33.9% *** 1.3% 45~54 歳 34.2% *** 28.1% ** 9.3% 4.4% 40.0% *** 22.8% ** (t 検定 )***:0.1% 未満で有意,**:1% 未満で有意,*:5% 未満で有意, :10% 未満で有意
11 Chiswick 4 (10) 1 (11) 2 The Institute for Higher Education Policy 1998 (12) 283
12 Acknowledgement General Social Surveys JGSS SSJ , JGSS A B JGSS Chiswick
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