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3 Absra We invesigae onemporaneous and ineremporal relaionship among eess reurns of J-REIT and oher finanial asses, suh as soks and bonds, by using weekly and monhly daa from Sepember 2001 o Oober From he weekly daa, we find ha he relaion among eess reurns of J-REIT and oher asses have hanged dramaially over ime. For eample, in he firs year afer he opening of J-REIT marke, he eess reurns of small size soks and bonds are signifianly relaed o ha of J-REIT in he same week, bu ha relaion beomes insignifian afer he seond year. Also, in he seond year afer he opening, he eess reurns of bonds and uiliy soks affe srongly ha of J-REIT in he ne week, bu here is no suh effe in he firs and hird year. From he monhly daa, we find ha he eess reurns of bonds and uiliy soks are signifianly relaed o ha of J-REIT in he same monh. However, no ineremporal relaion an be found so ha he effe of he eess reurns of soks and bonds o ha of J-REIT does no persis over monh. In all analysis above, he variaion of he eess reurns of soks and bonds anno eplain he large porion of ha of J-REIT eess reurn. In his sense, he eess reurn of J-REIT has signifian omponen independen of hose of oher asses. To analyze suh speifi omponen of he J-REIT variaion, we also invesigae he effe of he eess reurn of real esae pries and vaany raes, bu anno find any signifian relaionship wih ha of J-REIT. Invesigaion of he variaion speifi o J-REIT is an imporan fuure researh opi.
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5 1
6 2
7 JREIT ) TOPIX ) TOPIX 2 ) UTILITY ) ) BPI _ SOGO 3
8 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY
9 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY
10 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY
11 ε) JREIT C T TOPIX T 2 TOPIX 2 B BPI _ SOGO U UTILITY ) = a a ) a ) a ) a ) ε ) P TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY
12 P TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY P TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY
13 P TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY
14 10 ) ε ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) U U UTILITY UU BP UB JTOPIX U TOPIX UT JREIT UJ UTILITY B B UTILITY BU BP BB JTOPIX B TOPIX BT JREIT BJ BPI UTILITY U BP B JTOPIX TOPIX T JREIT J TOPIX T TUU UTILITY BP TB JTOPIX T TOPIX TT JREIT TJ TOPIX J J UTILITY JU BP JB JTOPIX J TOPIX JT JREIT JJ JREIT ε ε ε ε ε = = = = =
15 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT [ 0.984] [ 2.381] [ 1.485] [ 1.087] [ 2.845] TOPIX [ 1.927] [ 0.394] [ 2.605] [ 0.227] [ 0.047] TOPIX [-1.016] [-1.489] [-0.323] [-1.635] [-1.655] BPI_SOGO [ 2.085] [-1.504] [-1.195] [ 0.249] [ 0.190] UTILITY [ 2.341] [ 0.832] [ 0.870] [ 0.405] [-1.104] [ 2.712] [ 0.261] [ 1.868] [ 0.828] [-0.370] 11
16 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT [ 0.159] [ 2.475] [ 0.640] [ 1.832] [ 1.97] TOPIX [ 1.468] [ 0.447] [ 2.254] [-0.663] [ 0.461] TOPIX [ 0.469] [-0.838] [-0.037] [ 0.152] [-1.72] BPI_SOGO [-1.135] [-0.438] [ 0.016] [ 0.541] [ 1.755] UTILITY [ 1.231] [ 1.296] [ 0.806] [ 0.129] [-1.225] [ 0.765] [-0.057] [ 0.368] [ 1.960] [-1.550] J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT [-0.337] [ 0.619] [ 0.873] [-0.904] [ 2.238] TOPIX [ 1.727] [ 1.179] [ 1.335] [-0.110] [ 0.663] TOPIX [-2.160] [-2.111] [-0.510] [-0.427] [-1.287] BPI_SOGO [ 2.154] [-1.402] [-0.670] [ 1.283] [ 0.794] UTILITY [ 1.972] [ 0.473] [ 0.569] [ 0.508] [ 1.085] E [ 2.344] [ 0.862] [ 1.242] [ 0.079] [-0.168] 12
17 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT [ 0.724] [ 0.832] [ 0.428] [ 0.614] [-1.034] TOPIX [ 0.926] [-0.389] [ 1.324] [ 0.177] [-0.821] TOPIX [-0.837] [-0.502] [-0.376] [-1.585] [-0.615] BPI_SOGO [ 1.542] [-0.278] [-0.433] [-1.140] [-2.419] UTILITY [-0.262] [-0.231] [-0.175] [ 0.528] [ 1.422] [ 2.857] [ 0.404] [ 1.341] [ 0.579] [ 1.770] 13
18 14
19 JREIT_INDEX TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY
20
21
22 JREIT_INDEX TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY 18
23
24
25
26 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT BPI_SOGO UTILITY 22
27 P TOPIX TOPIX BPI_SOGO UTILITY UTILITY J-REIT 3% UTILITY J-REIT UTILITY J-REIT BPI_SOGO 10% 5% J-REIT BPI_SOGO J-REIT TOPIX J-REIT 70 VAR VAR 23
28 J-REIT TOPIX TOPIX2 BPI_SOGO UTILITY J-REIT [-0.305] [ 1.030] [ 1.200] [ 0.839] [-0.106] TOPIX [ 1.142] [ 0.962] [ 1.584] [-1.182] [-0.730] TOPIX [-1.512] [-0.810] [-1.493] [-0.231] [-0.390] BPI_SOGO [ 0.002] [ 0.083] [-0.488] [-0.703] [-1.852] UTILITY [ 0.550] [-0.657] [ 0.416] [ 0.464] [-0.165] [ 2.703] [ 0.185] [ 1.459] [ 0.717] [ 0.328] 24
29 25
30 26
31 27
32 28
33 NA 9.80e * * * 8.73e-20* * e e e
34 ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) ) 0.003) 0.002) 0.002) 0.002) E ) 0.002) E E ) 0.000) ) 2.02E E E E ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 4.83E E E E E ) 0.000) 5.4E-05) 6.5E-05) 6.8E-05) ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) ) 0.002) 0.002) 0.002) 0.002) E E ) ) 0.000) 0.000) -6.21E E E ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) -2.45E E E ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 30
35 ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) ) 0.002) 0.002) 0.002) 0.002) E E ) ) 0.000) E E ) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 0.000) 9.90E E E E E ) 0.000) 9.8E-05) 0.000) 7.4E-05) -1.83E E E E E E-05) 4.5E-05) 3.5E-05) 4.1E-05) 1.6E-05) 31
36 32
37 33
38 34
39 Barkham, R. and D. Gelner, Prie Disovery in Amerian and Briish Propery Markes, 1995) Real Esae Eonomis 23, Chan, K. C., P. H. Hendersho, and A. B. Sanders, Risk and Reurn on Real Esae: Evidene from Equiy REITs, 1990) AREUEA Journal 18, Chan, S. H., J. Erikson, and K. Wang, Real Esae Invesmen Truss, 2003) New York, NY: Oford Universiy Press Garrigan, R. and J. Parsons, eds. Real Esae Invesmen Truss, 1997) Burr Ridge, IL: MGraw-Hill Glasok, J. L., C. Lu, and R. W. So, Furher Evidene on he Inegraion of REIT, Bond, and Sok Reurns, 2000) Journal of Real Esae Finane and Eonomis 20, Gyourko, J. and D. B. Keim, Wha Does he Sok Marke Tell Us Abou Real Esae Reurns, 1992) Journal of he Amerian Real Esae and Urban Eonomis Assoiaion 20, Lieblih, F., J. Pagliari, and J. Webb, The Hisorial Behavior of REIT Reurns: A Real Esae Perspeive, 1997) in Real Esae Invesmen Truss. R. Garrigan and J. Parsons, eds. Burr Ridge, IL: MGraw-Hill Ling, D. C. and A. Naranjo, Eonomi Risk Faors and Commerial Real Esae Reurns, 1997) Journal of Real Esae Finane and Eonomis 15, Ling, D. C. and A. Naranjo, The Dynamis of REIT Capial Flows and Reurns, 2003 ) Real Esae Eonomis 31, Sanders, B. Anhony, The Hisorial Behavior of REIT Reurns: A Capial Markes Perspeive, 1997) in Real Esae Invesmen Truss. R. Garrigan and J. Parsons, eds. Burr Ridge, IL: MGraw-Hill J-REIT J-REIT 2005 Mizuho Seuriies Real Esae Marke Repor No /5 IV J-REIT
40 2003) 27 J-REIT REIT REIT 2003 JAREFE
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42 J-REIT ) ) J-REIT J-REIT 17 7 J-REIT
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CIRJE-J-100 2003 11 CIRJE hp://www.e.u-okyo.ac.jp/cirje/research/03research02dp_j.hml Credi Risk Modeling Approaches 2003 11 17 Absrac This aricle originaes from a speech given by he auhor in he seminar
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