2. (1) R. A Fsher 4) Maddala(1993) 5) Matyas and Sevestre(1996) 6) Baum- Snow(2007) 7) Baum-Snow Alonso (2004) 8) (2002) 9) (2002) 10)

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1 E-mal: koke@lon.kobe-u.ac.jp E-mal: kenj.hra@fukken.co.jp E-mal: kesuke.sato@fukken.co.jp Key Words : ex-post analyss, fxed effect model, accessblty, panel data 1. 1) 1 Barro(1992) 2) (1999) 3) GDP GDP

2 2. (1) R. A Fsher 4) Maddala(1993) 5) Matyas and Sevestre(1996) 6) Baum- Snow(2007) 7) Baum-Snow Alonso (2004) 8) (2002) 9) (2002) 10) -1. 土木学会論文集 D3( 土木計画学 ), Vol. 68, No. 4, , (2) (2005) 11) y t d f x u (2) y t ( +d ) a d x t u t f,t (2) t y d f x u (3) (2) (3) x x u y y f (4) t t (4) 2 ~ f (3) (2) f d F,D F,D (5) p M -1 t t u -1 lnyt 1 f 0 f1f f p Fp lnxt d D d D M 1 1 p p t (5) y t x t f d F DM t 389

3 t p (5) y x (4) (1995) 12) (1995) 12) (6) (6) w jt -1 w jt x Acc exp t w (6) j t j t jt : j : j (5) )1 14) jt jt -1 y t Acc t = exp(-t jt )w jt tjt w jt M t 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) % 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% ) 3. (1) H

(2) 1970 2007 5 1973 11-4 w jt ACC w jt =

4 (2) w jt ACC w jt = (3) a) 105 t j j 17) (2010) 16) (2008) b) t j j t jt 17) (2010) c) w jt w jt -1 2)~4) w jt f t- 17) (2010) -4 ACC(w jt = ) 1 391

5 20% 15) (5) f f -4 ACC(w jt = ) 2 (4) f t f t-105 1% 5% 20 5%1% a) -5 20% 60% 20 60% -6 f 2 6% % 1.7% 5.8% 6.6% 3.9% Nathanel Baum 2~6% 1 392

6 -2 f t-99% 95% 80% 393

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7 b) % 20 60% % c) % 60% 20 60% % % 1 394

8 d) % 315% 213% 200% e) ) %

9 % -13.4% -3.9% -3.4% -0.4% f) % % 1970 g) -17 1,500% %

-17-19 -18-20 f h) -19 1970 35-20 10 20%1970-20

10 f h) % f ) % % 8.8%8.4%

11 f 4. a) b) c) 20% 1 398

12 1) Vol. 8, No. 4, pp , ) Barro, R. J. and Sala--Matn, X.: Convergence, Journal of Poltcal Economy, Vol. 100, pp , ) No.39, ) Fsher, R. A.: Statstcal Methods and Scentfc Inference, Hanfer Publshng, ) Maddala, G. S. ed.: The Econometrcs of Panel Data, 2 vols, Aldershot; Brookfeld: Edward Elgar, ) Matyas, L. and Sevestre, P.: The Economcs of Panel Data, A Handbook of the Theory wth Applcatons, 2nd ed., Malden Blackwell, ) Baum-Snow, N.: Dd hghways cause suburbanzaton?, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, Vol. 122, Issue 2, pp , ) Vol. 50, No. 2, ) Vol. 27, No. 2, pp , ) No. 19, ) ) No.18 (1), pp , ) 土木学会論文集 D3( 土木計画学 ), Vol. 68, No. 4, , ) 15) ) 51 7 pp , ) Vol. 45, No. 4, pp.38-43, ) 21 19) ) Vckerman, R.: Recent Evoluton of Research nto the wder Economc Benefts of transport nfrastructure nvestments, Jont Transport Research Centre, Dscusson Paper No ) Graham, D. J.: Agglomeraton Economes and Transport Investment, Jont Transport Research Centre, Dscusson Paper No ) Strange, W. C.: Prepared for the Handbook of Urban and Regonal Economcs, Volume 4, November 4, 2002 Evdence on the Nature and Sources of Agglomeraton Economes. 23) Bard, B. A.: Publc Infrastructure and Economc Productvty, A Transportaton-Focused Revew, Vol. 1932, pp , REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE'S CONTRIBUTION TO PRODUCTIVITY AND POPULATION EX-POST ANALYSIS USING BY FIXED EFFECT MODEL Atsush KOIKE, Kenj HIRAI and Kesuke SATO Many studes of nfrastructure productvty have been conducted. Researchers have estmated the producton functon ncludng nfrastructure stock as a producton factor by usng tme-seres and regonal data as macro data and have determned whether or not nfrastructure development has sgnfcant effects on natonal economy. On the other hand, Barro and Sala--Matn (1992) reported that the nfluence of accessblty mprovement by nfrastructure development has margnally decreased recently. Although these dscussons have focused on the natonal economc growth, we don't get the nformaton how economc changes n the regonal economc level by nfrastructure development. On the other hands, we know the regonal nfrastructure development has several effects as our current experence. Some of the effects are postve, such as ncreasng productvty n a prvate sector and nducng regonal development, but some are negatve, such as nducng the outflow of consumpton from smaller, local ctes to larger ctes (Ths s known as the "Straw Effect"). These phenomena, however, have not been studed n practcal terms. In ths paper, the fxed effect model based on the panel data s used to clarfy the postve and negatve regonal economc effects of exstng expressway development. Usng panel data (tme seres and regonal statstcal nformaton), t s possble to analyze the spatal nfluence of expressway development. And ths model s constructed by formulatng a correlaton between expressway development (change of accessblty) and regonal economc effect. We used ths model to clarfy the postve and negatve effects about populaton, productvty and producton changes by exstng expressway development n Japan. In the concluson, the populaton n most rural regons s decreasng wth expressway development. However, economc actvtes such as manufacturng, wholesale and retal producton are ncreasng. Ths shows that the expressway development has a possblty to make relocate the populaton dstrbuton, and contrbutes to an effcent economc actvty. 399

(004)(004) (006)(009a,b)(011) Hashmoto and Cohn(1997) Hashmoto and Cohn(1997) FFCQ(Flexble Fxed Cost Quadratc functon) Hashmoto an

010 11 011 3 *C) 0530186 0 009 6 004 1 (004)(004) (006)(009a,b)(011) Hashmoto and Cohn(1997) Hashmoto and Cohn(1997) 1991 94 FFCQ(Flexble Fxed Cost Quadratc functon) Hashmoto and Cohn(1997) 1 Hashmoto