2010 Spring - Sovereign Wealth Funds in East Asia (JPN Ver.1).ppt

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1 THE ROOTS OF STUNTED REGIONALISM IN NORTHEAST ASIA BILATERALISM vs. MULTILATERALISM Regional Investment since the Financial Crises: SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS IN EAST ASIA 東アジアの政府系ファンド 第四回ボストン勉強会 2010 年 5 月 12 日 14 時! ボストン大学国際関係学科 朴准儀 ( バク ジュンイ ) ボストン大学政治学科博士課程 3 年 ( 国際政治経済学 )

2 目次 1. はじめに :THE PUZZLE 2. 二国間主義への投資様相 : 政府系ファンド 3. 東アジアの政府系ファンド - 東南アジア : シンガポ-ル インドネシア マレ-シア ベットナム タイ ( 予想 ) - 北東アジア : 中国 / 香港 韓国 日本 ( 予想 ) - 南アジア : インド ( 予想 ) - その他 : アメリカ 南米 中東 ヨ ロッパ 4. 政府系ファンドによる二国間主義強化の可能性 1

3 1. はじめに : 研究の主題 何故東アジアでは経済協力や統合は制限されてきたのか? 仮説 : 東アジア各国とアメリカとの二国主義の優勢と Self- help の様相 貿易 : 東アジア各国とアメリカとの貿易不均衡の歴史金融 : 東アジア各国の外貨保有高増加投資 : 二国間自由貿易協定 二国間投資協定の締結政府系ファンド設立 ( 東アジアの場合 非商品政府系ファンドの助成 ) 2

4 2. 二国間主義への投資様相 : 政府系ファンド 政府系ファンド (Sovereign Wealth Fund) とは何なのか? 政府が運用するファンド です 原資となる公的資金は : 1) 商品ファンド : 石油 天然ガス 鉱物等の国有天然資源から得られる利益 2) 非商品ファンド : 中央銀行の外貨準備高 ヘッジファンド ミューチュアルファンド等との区別 1) 政府系ファンドは公的資金 2) 政府の運用政策により high- risk/high- returnを追求する 3) 目的は純粋に国富を増やすこと 3

5 2. 二国間主義への投資様相 : 政府系ファンド 政府系ファンド (Sovereign Wealth Fund) とは何なのか? 4

6 3. 東アジアの政府系ファンド Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report (October 2007), IMF International Financial Statistics 2010 春第四回ボストン勉強会 : 東アジア NOTE: All figures are in Trillions of U.S. dollars 5 の政府系ファンド

7 3. 東アジアの政府系ファンド : A. 非商品政府系ファンドの登場背景 Source: IMF International Financial Statistics NOTE: All figures are in Trillions of U.S. dollars 6

8 3. 東アジアの政府系ファンド : B-1. 世界の政府系ファンドの種類 Unit:USD Billion SOURCE: Sovereign Wealth Funds InsEtute (December 2009) NOTE: All figures are in billions of U.S. dollars 7

9 3. 東アジアの政府系ファンド : B-2. 世界の非商品政府系ファンド Non- Commodity SWFs in the world Unit:USD Billion Assets $Billion SAFE CIC GIC NSSF HKMA TH SIF KIC KN NMSIOT NZSF SFB CADF China China Singapore China China (Hong Kong SAR) Singapore France South Korea SOURCE: Sovereign Wealth Funds InsEtute (December 2009) NOTE: All figures are in billions of U.S. dollars Malaysia USA New Mexico New Zealand Brazil China 8

10 東南アジア : シンガポ - ル インドネシア マレ - シア ベットナム タイ ( 予想 ) Pusat Investasi Pemerintah(PIP) Company that manages funds of the Government of Singapore and the Monetary Authority of Singapore / USD Billion/ Corporate/ Asian investment company owned by the Government of Singapore 1974 / USD 122 Billion/ Corporate/ Portfolio / Government investment unit managed by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance 2006 / USD 0.4 Billion/ Investment holding arm of the Government of Malaysia entrusted to hold and manage the commercial assets of the government and to undertake strategic investments Share capital owned by the Malaysian Ministry of Finance 1993 / USD 25 Billion/ Corporate / Portfolio Government shareholder in the SOEs responsible for monitoring and investing its capital, and promoting strategies in support of market development and economic growth 2005 / USD 0.5 Billion/ Corporate In April of 2008, Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase states that the Bank would investigate the possibility of establishing a sovereign wealth fund. 9

11 北東アジア : 中国 / 香港 韓国 日本 ( 予想 ) China Africa Development Fund The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), manages China s ForEx 1997 / USD Billion/ Corporate privately held firm with officials on board National Council for Social Security Fund (SSF) - government agency at the ministerial level Directly under the State Council of the PRC, funded by capital and equity assets derived from reduction of state-owned shares, fiscal allocation of the central gov / USD Billion/ Fund The China Investment Corporation (CIC), manages part of China's ForEx (USD 200 billion) Modeled similar to Singapore's Temasek Holdings 2007 / USD Billion/ Corporate / Portfolio Investment Vehicle in Africa established by the China Development Bank 2007 / USD 5 Billion/Fund Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), stabilizer/investor in local exchange, Hang Seng. All Exchange Fund assets can be used to support the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate / USD Billion/Fund 10

12 11

13 北東アジア : 中国 / 香港 韓国 日本 ( 予想 ) Government-owned investment management company specializing in overseas investments 2005 / USD 27 Billion/ Corporate / Source: 12

14 北東アジア : 中国 / 香港 韓国 日本 ( 予想 ) It has been presumed that Japan will be planning a non-commodity fund. 5/7/2008 Japan should sell 80%of FX reverses to cut risk 4/25/2008 Japan LDP to compile wealth fund proposals in May (Kotaro Tamura, LDP SWF Panel) 4/9/2008 Japan is thinking about creating a Sovereign Wealth Fund (UBS Securities Japan Ltd.) 2/24/2008 Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga expresses concern over investment fund 2/21/2008 Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga Calls for debate on Fund 13

15 南アジア : インド ( 予想 ) Reserve Bank of India (RBI) not keen on managing sovereign wealth fund In favor of setting up a dedicated autonomous entity to administer such a fund when it is set up. その他 : 南米 ヨ ロッパ アメリカ Alaska Permanent Fund USD 35.5 bn New Mexico State Investment Office USD 12.9 bn Permanent Wyoming Mineral Trust Fund USD 3.6 bn Banco Central Do Brasil, defending Brazil from future financial crises and assist Brazilian firms to increase trade and expand abroad 2009 / USD 8.6 Billion/Fund Le Fonds stratégique d'investissement, French public limited company enhancing equity/stabilizing French firms 49% of the funds owned by Government of France 51% by Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (a public group, a long term investor serving general interest and the economic development of France) / USD 8.6 Billion/ 14

16 4. 政府系ファンドによる二国主義強化の可能性 地域内の投資様相 : 地域 FTAs vs. 二国間 FTAs, 二国間投資協定 & 政府系ファンドの成長 - 投資の原動力 : 経済発展に必要な資源と 貿易市場の確保 - 貿易と金融の繋がり : 経常収支, 貨幣価値からの影響 - 限界 : 投資規制の不在 ( サンチアゴ原則の限界 ) 中国政府投資の不透明性に対する疑惑 地域 inieaeves の不足 15

17 終 有り難うございました 16

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