27 年新潟県中越沖地震の強震動 ーなぜ柏崎刈羽原子力発電所は想定以上の破壊的強震動に襲われたのか? ー 28 年 3 月 19 日再修正版 入倉孝次郎 ( 愛知工業大学地域防災センター ) 香川敬生 宮腰研 ( 地域地盤環境研究所 ) 倉橋奨 ( 愛知工業大学 )
3 AspAsp Asp AspAsp GPS SAR 2
277 16 1 km 6.8 6.6 6 9 km 6
(, 22) GPS (, 27) 24 27 2. 27, 27, 27
KKNPP 175(27 11 12 )
, 27, 27 NIG16 CB5 KKZ1R2 27 km 7.7 1.3 1. 9.7 22 4 33 28 124 89 km 14 2 12 17 4 4 55 35 9 9
, 1999 (Fukushima and Tanaka, 1989)
27
1 27 1-1 1 2 3 4 8-8 1 2 3 4 5-5 1 2 3 4 3-3 1 2 3 4 3-3 1 2 3 4-1 1 2 3 4 8-8 1 2 3 4 5-5 1 2 3 4 3-3 1 2 3 4 3-3 1 2 3 4
27 KKZ1G1 1 5 KKZ1R2 1 KKZ5G1 5 1 KKZ5R2 5 1 1-1 1 2 3 4 8-13 1 2 3 4 5-8 1 2 3 4 13-5 1 2 3 4-1 1 2 3 4 8-8 1 2 3 4 13-13 1 2 3 4 5-5 1 2 3 4
445 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1-1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1-1 1 1 1 1, 1999 1km
F F Time Domain () t S () t * P () t G() t = F ( f ) = S ( f ) P ( f ) G( f ) i i i * i Frequency Domain i i S i Boore 1983 (1/R) R FsP Q(f) θφ RTITN 2πf = Mo 1 πr i ( ) 4πρVs 3 1+ ( f f ) 2 i f Pi f = exp ci Ri Q( f ) Vs ( f ) ( f ) G = Si Fi( f ) ( f ) Pi( f ) G ( f ) = N i= 1 Gi N ( f )
Mo F-net NIGH16 Q Q=76f.64 1 2-3 1 1 1 1-1.1 1 1 NIGH16
1 5 1 2 1 1 1 1-1.1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1-1.1 1 1
NIG16 NIG21 1 2 1 1 1 1-1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1-1.3 1 2 1 1 1 1-1.3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1-1.3 1 1 1 1
456 2535 N37 E 3
ASP3 r R3 ASP1 R1 R1 ASP1 R2 ASP3 r ASP1 ASP3 VS Vr 1 5-5 -1 T P1 T1 T1 P3 3 35 4 45 T 1 1(P1) 1) 2 3 P3 ASP1 ASP3 VrASP3S Vs S 2 T1 r R3 ASP3 ASP3 T1 P1 R 1 = T Vs r R3 + = T + T Vr Vs r R3 R1 + Vr Vs Vs P3 1 P3 P1 = T1 1 2 3
5 ASP2ASP1 ASP3 ASP2 Vs 3.4km/s Vr 2.7km/s37 35 ASP2 ASP3 ASP2 ASP1 ASP2 ASP1 ASP3 ASP3
Asperity1 5 1 15 2 25 3 2 1 Asperity2 5 Asp2 Asp1 1 15 2 Asp3 25 3 2 1 KKNPP Asperity3 5 KKNPP 1 15 3 2 25 3 2 1
7 Asperity 27 7 16 21:8, Mj 4.4 1 Asperity Asperity 27 8 4 :16, Mj 3.2 Asperity AsperityAsperity AsperityAsperity 27 7 16 21:8, Mj 4.4Asperity 27 8 4 :16, Mj 3.2
1 2 5 1m 1 2 =18 54 51 = 7 1 5 1 3 51 8 1 4 5-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 8 1 4 5 5 1 15-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 8 1 4 5 5 1 15-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 8 1 4 5 5 1 15-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 8 1 4 5 5 1 15-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 5 1 15 8 1 4 5-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 8 1 4 5-4 -5-8 5 1 15-1 5 1 15
1 2 5 1m = 7 1 1 2 =18 54 51 5 1 15-1 1 2 3 4 5 1-1 1 2 3 4 5 1-1 1 2 3 4 5 1-1 1 2 3 4 5 1-1 1 2 3 4 5 1-1 1 2 3 4 5 1-1 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5 1.5-1.5 1 2 3 4 5
1 2 5 1m = 7 1 1 2 =18 54 51 5.4.4.2.2 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3 1 2 3.4.2.4.2 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3.4.4.2.2 1 2 3 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3.4.4.2.2 1 2 3 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3.4.4.2.2 1 2 3 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3.4.4.2.2 1 2 3 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3.4.4.2.2 1 2 3 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.4 1 2 3 1 2 3 51
1 F-netF-NET ( 3 4πρβ R ) Ω Mo / = φθ Ω 2 r =.37Vs / Δσ = 7Mo 3 16r fc r Vs S fc Δσ Mo
余震のパラメータの評価 Dis.Amp * R (cm*s*cm) 1 6 1 5 7 月 16 日 21:8 の余震 fc=2.hz 1 4 1 3 1 2 1.1 1.1 1 1 1 Frequency (Hz) Dis.Amp * R (cm*s*cm) 1 5 8 月 4 日 :16 の余震 1 4 fc=4.hz 1 3 1 2 1 1 1.1.1 1 1 1 Frequency (Hz) 7 月 16 日 21:8 8 月 4 日 :16 地震モーメント 5.21E+15Nm(F-net) 1.56E+14Nm コーナー周波数 2.Hz 4.Hz 応力降下量 9.1MPa 2.2MPa 断層面積 1.24km 2.31km 2
Mainshock Asp2 Asp1 AFT1 AFT2 Asp3
Mainshock Aftershock(AFT1) Aftershock(AFT2) Origin time 7/7/16 1:13 7/7/16 21:8 7/8/4 :16 Hypocenter 37.557, 138.69 37.59, 138.63 37.42, 138.537 Depth 1km 13.6km 11. km Mw 6.6 4.4 - Mo 8.37E+16Nm 5.21E+16Nm 1.56E+14Nm Rupture start point Depth (km) Mo (Nm) ASP1 (4.3) 1. 1.69 1 18 ASP2 (5,2) 8.3 1.69 1 18 ASP3 (4,5) 11.3 1.2 1 18 L (km) W (km) (MPa) Risetime (second) ASP1 5.5 5.5 N 5 5 23.7.5 ASP2 5.5 5.5 N 5 5 23.7.5 ASP3 5.4 5.4 N 9 9 19.8.45
strike dip rake 37 3 9 Latitude Longitude depth 37.391 138.341 5.5km
KKZ1R2 NS.5 1H EW UD.3 1Hz
KKZ5R2 NS.5 1H EW UD.3 1Hz
KSHSG4 NS.5 1H EW UD.3 1Hz
NIG5.3 1Hz
NIG18.3 1Hz
NIG19.3 1Hz
1 23 Tokachi-oki Combined Area of Asperities (km 2 ) 1 1 1 1 chuetsu-oki 27 Somerville et al.(1999) Miyagi-ken-hokubu Miyagi-ken-oki Somerville et al. (1999) (Miyakoshi et al., 2) Kagoshima(3/26) (Miyakoshi et al., 24) Yamaguchi (Miyakoshi et al., 24) Iwate (Miyakoshi et al., 2) Kocaeli (Sekiguchi and Iwata, 21) Chichi (Iwata et al., 2) Kobe (Sekiguchi et al, 2) Tottori (Sekiguchi et al., 21) 1.E+24 1.E+25 1.E+26 1.E+27 1.E+28 1.E+29 Seismic Moment(dyne-cm) 27
(Bouchon, 1979) 3
KKZ1R2 1 KKZ5R2 5 27/7/16, 21:8 Mj=4.4 KKZ1R2, KKZ5R2 (27)
asp2 asp3.72*1 18 [Nm] asp1 1.66*1 18 [Nm] Initial model 1.8*1 18 [Nm] Revised model
(1) KKZ1R2 1 KKZ5R2 5 Obs. Syn.
( ) NIG18 K-NETF-net NIG18 K-NET F-net NS Obs. 1)(27) Syn. 2) JNES(24)
NS EW EW NS
KKNPP 11 NS EW NS 33EW 1 5-5 NS -1 1 5 1 15 5-5 -1 EW 1 3 5 1 15
Aspeirty3 Asperity1 1 3 KKNPP 1 3 1 KKNPP 14.8km185 3 KKNPP7.6km 8.4 STRDIPRAKE 1 3 KKNPP Asperity1 Aspeirty3 14.8km 7.6km 185. 8.4 11.5km 1.km KKNPP
NS EWKKNPP NS EW Asperity1KKNPPNS.28 EW -.54 NS EW Asperity3KKNPPNS.43 EW -.68 Asperity1 N Asperity3 N 185 EW:-.68 8 NS:.43 EW:-.54 NS:.28 1 3
Str 37 dip 3 rake 9 1 KKNPP NS EW dip 55 1 345 NSEW Asperity1 N Dip3 Asperity1 N Dip4 Asperity1 N Dip5 185 185 185 EW:-.54 NS:.28 EW:-.42 NS:.35 EW:-.25 NS:.37 sperity1kknpp
Asp3 KKZ1R2 1 Asp3 asp3 1.66*1 18 [Nm] Vr=2.7km/s EW-comp. Asp3 (Vmax=63.1cm/s)
Asp3:KKZ1R2UT1(1 Asp3 asp3 1.66*1 18 [Nm] Vr=2.7km/s EW-comp. (Vmax=41.2cm/s)
N37E31 5
27OBS 3 3
K-NET Kik-Net 27