45 B-2 14 4 Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 45 B-2, 22 5 m 5 m :,,, 1. 2. 2.1 27 km 2 187
km 2 14 % 77 % 47 7, 9 2, 54 6 7, 9 16, 57 8 1, 9 47 2 1 57 5 2.2 45 2 Fig. 1 2 2.3 Fig. 2 51 61 47, 54, 57, Fig. 3 47 54 57 2.4
1,4 2,8 5,6 8,4 11,2 áüèë. Fig. 1 Spatial variation of land price of Neya River basin in 199-36 363-42 423-46 462-495 496-515 516-54 543-565 566-595 596-615 616-636 637-655 656-675 677-7 72-73 732-755 756-78 783-816 82-85 853-886 887-919 92-957 959-995 999-14 15-19 11-113 114-118 119-122 123-126 127-13 131-135 136-139 14-143 144-147 148-151 152-154 155-158 159-162 163-165 166-17 171-175 176-18 181-185 186-19 191-197 198-23 24-211 212-219 22-226 227-233 234-24 241-248 249-256 257-265 266-278 279-29 291-314 315-338 339-361 362-386 389-412 413-439 44-47 472-55 56-55 555-61 612-686 689-8 81-13 14-145 146-1 3. 3.1 (1991), (1992), (1999) 2
average land price 6 5 4 3 2 1 s45 s46 s47 s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 Fig. 2 Temporal variation of land price of residential zone average land price 1 9 average land price 25 8 7 2 6 5 4 3 2 1 s45 s46 s47 s48 region which has disaster region which has not disaster s49 15 1 5 s57 region which has experienced a food disaster region which has not disaster s58 average land price 1 9 8 7 average land price 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 region which has disaster region which has not disaster 4 3 2 1 region which has disaster region which has not s52 s53 s54 s61 s62 s63 h1 Fig. 3 Comparison between average land prices of the region which has disaster and the region which has not disaster 3.2 (1) (,, ) Table 1
traffic factor life factor environmental factor safetyfactor Table 1 Explanatory variables time required to major stations [min] sewerage system [, 1] school [, 1] commercial zone [, 1] park [ 5] industrial zone [, 1] elevation [-8 8] distance to the nearest river channel [m] elevation difference with river channel [m] experience of inundation [, 1] 1km 1 km 3 km/h, 1 km/h JR,,, (JR,,, ),, 1 2 m 1, 5 m 1, 5 m, 4 m 5 m 1, 3 m 4 m 2, 2 m 3 m 3, 1 m 2 m 4, m 1 m 5 5 m 1, 5 m ( ) ( ) -1, 1, -8 8 25 ( ) 5 m ( ) (2) 2
land price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 time required to major stations (mine) Fig. 4 Relation between required time to major stations and land price land price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-15 -1-5 5 1 15 elevation diffrence with river channel (m) Fig. 7 Relation between elevation difference and land price land price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 1 1 time required to major stations (mine) Fig. 5 Relation between ln(required time to major stations) and land price land price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 elevation (m) Fig. 8 Relation between elevation and land price land price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 distance to the nearest river channel (m) Fig. 6 Relation between distance to the nearest river channel and land price land price 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-14 -12-1 -8-6 -4-2 elevation difference with river channel (m) Fig. 9 Relation between elevation difference and land price (2),,, (a) Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 4 (b) Fig. 6 (c) Fig. 7 Fig. 8 Fig. 7 m
m Fig. 9 (3) (2) t 1 t Table 2 2 t 1.96 95 % t 1 t 1 7 % Table 2,,, t 1 t t t Table 3 t Table 3 Table 4 t 1 Table 2 Results of multiple regression analysis for 199 explanatoryvariables regression coefficients t values ln(required time to major stations) -31368-6.84 distance to the nearest river channel 273 4.73 park 19811 2. sewerage system 8939 2.93 elevation -1371-1.58 school -256 -.1 industrial zone -1844 -.62 commercial zone -1112 -.41 elevation difference with river channel 1559 1.65 experience of inundation -2835 -.17 multiple correlation coefficient.72 adjusted coefficient of determination.49 number of samples 27 constant term 1388586 Table 3 Sign requirements explanatoryvariables sign required time to major stations distance to the nearest river channel + park + sewerage system + elevation school + industrial zone commercial zone + elevation difference with river channel + experience of inundation Table 2, 4
Table 4 Results of regression analysis; several variables are neglected. explanatoryvariables regression coefficients t values ln(required time to major stations) -297469-6.95 distance to the nearest river channel 274 4.86 park 257 2.4 sewerage system 88119 2.94 elevation -1794-1.69 elevation difference with river channel 158 1.73 multiple correlation coefficient.72 adjusted coefficient of determination.5 number of samples 27 constant term 136658 Table 5 Correlation between variables explanatory variables explanatory variables correlation coefficients elevation difference dummyvari- with able for eleva-.1 river channel tion elevation difference distance to the with nearest river.2 river channel channel elevation difference required time with to major sta-.4 river channel tions dummyvariable distance to the for eleva- nearest river.3 tion channel dummyvariable required time for eleva- tion to major stations.3 distance to the required time nearest river to major stations.41 channel Table 2, 4 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Check of multicollinearity explanatoryvariables regression coefficients t values ln(required time to major stations) -352596-8.1 park 21346 2.6 sewerage system 123849 4.5 elevation -9983-1.48 elevation difference with river channel 1562 1.62 multiple correlation coefficient.68 adjusted coefficient of determination.44 Table 4 Table 6 Table 4 48 3.3 (1) 1, Table 7
Table 7 Explanatory variables used in the land price function for the basin variables s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 time required to major stations (min) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 distance to the nearest river channel (m) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 park 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 sewerage system 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 elevation 1 1 1 school 1 1 industrial zone 1 1 commercial zone elevation difference with river channel (m) 1 1 experience of inundation <1> <1> 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Table 8 Explanatory variables used in the land price function; The upper table is for a region at a distance 5 m or more apart from a river channel and the lower table is for the rest of the basin. 5m variables s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 distance to the nearest river channel (m) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 elevation difference with river channel (m) experience of inundation 1 1 1 1 1 1 <1> sewerage system 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 elevation 1 1 1 1 1 1 <5m variables s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 distance to the nearest river channel (m) 1 <1> 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 elevation difference with river channel (m) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 experience of inundation 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 sewerage system 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 elevation (2) 5 m 5 m 5 m 1352 m ( 1-7-7, ) % 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 5m <5m s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 Fig. 1 Percentage of installation of sewerage system Fig. 1 5 m Table 7 1, Table 8,,
% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 time required to major stations (min) distance to the nearest river channel (m) park sewerage system elevation dummy variables for school industrial zone commercial zone elevation difference with river channel (m) experience of inundation Fig. 11 Effects of the explanatory variables on land price Table 8 5 m 48 62 54 57 5 m Fig. 1 5 m 5 m 5 m 6 % 54 55 58 2 48 54 3.4 1 m, 1 m Fig. 11
% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 time required to major stations (min) distance to the nearest river channel (m) park sewerage system elevation school industrial zone commercial zone elevation difference with river channel (m) experience of inundation Fig. 12 Effects of the explanatory variables on land price of the region at a distance 5 m or more apart from a river channel 1 % 1 % (1m ) 5 % 55 5 m (Fig. 12) 3.3 (2) 5 1 % Fig. 12 Fig. 13 47 54 percentage of influence (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 Fig. 13 Effect of the distance to the nearest river channel 57 59 63 54 57 54, 57 5 m (Fig. 14) 3.3 (2)
% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 s48 s49 s5 s51 s52 s53 s54 s57 s58 s59 s6 s61 s62 s63 h1 time required to major stations (min) distance to the nearest river channel (m) park sewerage system elevation school industrial zone commercial zone elevation diffrence with river channel (m) experience of inundation Fig. 14 Effects of the explanatory variables on land price of the region at a distance 5 m or less apart from a river channel 1 % 3 % 4. 47 54 57 4 6
(1999),, Vol. 27, pp. 435 44. (1991),, No. 26, pp. 19 114. (1992), 47, IV, pp. 18 181. Investigation of the Relationship Between Flood Disasters and Land Prices Yutaka ICHIKAWA, Masashi MATSUSHITA and Michiharu SHIIBA Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University Synopsis This paper analyses effects of flood disasters on structure of land price and land market by investigating spatial and temporal variation of land price in Neya River basin, which has experienced several flood disasters in the past few decades. The analysis shows the following results: 1) The basin does not have simple relationship between land price and experiences of flood disasters. 2) The distance to the nearest river channel has a considerable effect on land price. 3) In a region at a distance 5 m or more apart from a river channel, the effect of the distance to the nearest river channel increases immediatelyafter a flood event and decreases over several s, but the effect is disappearing in recent s. Elevation and experiences of flood events have effects on land price instead. 4) Land price in the rest of the basin has been affected bywhether sewerage system is installed or not. Keywords: flood disaster, land price, hedonic approach, Neya River basin