untitled

2007 3 http://www.bunka.go.jp/jiyuriyo/

... 1 1.... 3 1.1.... 3 1.2. ()... 5 1.3.... 6 1.3.1. ()... 7 1.3.2.... 8 1.3.3.... 9 1.3.4.... 9 1.3.5.... 10 1.4. (CSR)... 11 1.5. ()... 12 2.... 14 2.1.... 14 2.1.1. PML(Probable Maximum Loss)... 14 2.1.2.... 19 2.1.3.... 22 2.1.4.... 23 2.2. ()... 23 2.3.... 25 2.4. (BCP)... 34 3.... 35 3.1.... 35 3.2. ()... 36 3.2.1.... 38 3.2.2.... 39 3.2.3. ()... 39 3.3.... 40 3.3.1.... 40 3.3.2.... 41 3.3.3.... 42 i

... 43 1.... 45 1.1.... 45 1.1.1.... 45 1.1.2.... 45 1.1.3.... 46 1.2.... 46 1.3.... 48 1.3.1.... 48 1.3.2.... 48 1.3.3.... 49 1.3.4.... 50 2.... 52 2.1. SFAS 143... 52 2.1.1. ()... 52 2.1.1. 2000... 52 2.1.2. SFAS 143... 53 2.1.3.... 53 2.1.4.... 55 2.2. IASB... 55 2.2.1.... 55 2.2.2.... 56 2.2.3.... 56 2.2.4.... 57 2.3. FASB... 58 2.4.... 60 2.4.1.... 60 2.4.2.... 62 2.4.3.... 62 3.... 64 3.1.... 64 3.2.... 64 3.3. (DD)... 66 3.4.... 68 3.5.... 69 ii

3.5.1.... 70 3.5.2.... 72 3.6.... 73... 75 1...7 2...7 3...8 4...10 5 PML...15 6 PML...16 7 J-REIT PML...17 8 WCE...19 9 30 6...20 10...21 11...22 12...23 13...24 14...25 15...26 16...28 17...30 18...30 19 CAT...31 20...33 21 BCP...34 22...38 23...39 24...41 25 18 18...47 26...48 27...51 28...57 iii

29 IAS 37...58 30 SFAS 5...59 31...62 32...66 33 DD...67 34...70 35...70 36...74 iv

() 6 4 () 1

1 2 1. 2. 3. 3 1 2 () 2

1. 1.1. 1 Hyanes ()(chance of damage or loss) (uncertainty) (assumption of a risk) 2 Haynes 3 4 Risk Magnitude of hazard Probability (loss only risk) (loss or gain risk) 1 -- 2005 pp.1-2 2 1999 pp.72-74 3 (risk)(peril)(hazard) 3 1 2 3 4 " --" () 2005 p.14 3

5 ()( ) 6 () (SOX ) ( SOX ) SOX 2007 7 (PCAOB: Public Company Accounting Oversight Board) CEO CFO 5 1999 pp.93-95 6 6 4

7 SOX 2006 6 ( SOX ) SOX 2009 3 8 1.2. () () 9 2 2 1 7 2007 p.183 8 pp.182-183 9 1999 pp.127-128 5

2 10 ART(Alternative Risk Transfer) 11 1.3. 2004 10 23 12 13 14 1,000 (1 ) (CSR:Corporate Social Responsibility) 10 () ( 4 ) 2006 p.8 11 pp.8-9 12 pp.4-5 13 -- 80 2005 pp.2-6 14 6

2 710 92 1 2 [44] :[25]p27 1.3.1. () 7

10 20 15 3 3 1872 3 14 7.1 1891 10 28 8 1896 6 15 8.5 1923 9 1 7.9 1944 12 7 7.9 1946 12 21 8 1948 6 28 7.1 1983 5 26 7.7 1993 7 12 7.8 1995 1 17 7.3 2000 10 6 7.3 12 (2000 ) 2001 3 24 6.7 13 (2001 ) 2003 5 26 7.1 2003 7 26 6.4 2003 9 20 5.8 2003 9 26 8 15 2003 2004 10 23 6.8 16 2004 2005 3 20 7 [20] 1.3.2. 15 10 8

16 1.3.3. () () 2 17 1.3.4. 18 16 ( 5 ) 2006 pp.1-2 17 p.2 18 pp.3-4 9

1.3.5. (4 ) (4 ) (4 ) (4 ) 4 1 19 4 --[60]p40 (a) (b) (c) 19 -- 80 2005 pp.39-40 10

(d) (e) (f) (g) (h) 20 () 1.4. (CSR) (CSR:Corporate Social Responsibility) CSR CSR 21 CSR CSR 20 2005 pp.6-7 21 -- 80 2005 pp.30-32 11

CSR CSR 1.5. () () () (,B/S)(P/L)(C/F) ( ) 3 100%() () 22 23 2003 3 24 22 () ( 4 ) 2006 pp.1-2 23 24 "" http://www.tse.or.jp/glossary/ 12

2 25 (P/L)P/L () 25 -- Vol.46 No.8 1994 pp.60-66 13

2. 2.1. Y = F ( K, L) Y = KF ( K, L) + LF ( K, L) K K L Y 2 26 2.1.1. PML(Probable Maximum Loss) 26 ( 3 ) 2006 pp.1-2 L 14

PML(Probable Maximum Loss) PML 41 PML PML PML 475 50 10 90 27 PML (%) = 100 10 2 PML 2 10 10020 PML 0 100PML 5 PML WEB [14] 1981 PML 1020 1981 PML 20PML 27 (PML) http://www.jsca.or.jp/vol2/ 15tec_terms/backnumber_tec_terms.html 15

PML 20 PML PML PML 28 (1) PML PML PML PML PML PML 29 100 PML 6 PML 0.154 6 PML PML[29] (2) J-REIT PML J-REIT() 28 (PML) http://www.jsca.or.jp/vol2/ 15tec_terms/backnumber_tec_terms.html 29 PML http://www.shinozukaken.co.jp/se_jisinrisuku/ portfolio.html 16

(J-REIT) CMBS(Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) 30 J-REIT PML 15% PML 10% 7 J-REIT PML 10% J-REIT PML J-REIT PML J-REIT PML (7 ) 7 J-REIT PML (3) PML PML ASTM(American Society for Testing 30 (J-REIT) 2001 p.6 17

Materials)1999 E2026 PML PML SL(Scenario Loss:) SEL(Scenario Expected Loss:) SUL(Scenario Upper Loss:) 90 10% PL(Probable Loss:) PL N N 31 PML S(Scenario) P(Probable) WCE(Worst Conditional Expectation) Gordon Woo 8 32 8 a La A B La 8 A B a La a A L La WCE(Worst Conditional Expectation) WCE a N 31 5 2002 pp.55-57 32 18

N () N Na M WCEa M 1,000 1/100 M 10 10 (105,106,107,108,110,112,115,117,120,130) WCE 1130 10 113 La 105 33 8 WCE a (La,a) La A B [34]p55 2.1.2. 1km 30 30 3 33 5 2002 pp.56-58 19

14 15 16 (9) 9 30 6 [28]p20 20

34 10 :[35] 2 10 1 34 2005.3.23(2006.9.25 ) pp.1-2 21

4 4 35 2.1.3. BCP(Business Continuity Plan) () (DBJ) 36 11 DBJ 2006 4 6 NEC 6 11 :[60]p61 35 -- http://www.nliro.or.jp/service/ ryoritsu/quake/tekiyou.html 36 -- 80 2005 pp.59-61 22

2.1.4. ( 12 )90% 100 10 20 88 A 5 95 40 89 B 10 96 86 A B B 12 :[62]p9 2.2. () (13 ) 34% (CSR)CSR CSR 23

37 CSR 13 :[60]p67 37 -- 80 2005 pp.62-69 24

2.3. 14 15 14 15 50% ( ) 1 13% CAT 14 :[61]p11 25

15 :[61]p9 (1) () 1 5 (2005 4 26

) (5 ) 5 750 13,118 13,118 5 95% 5% 5 8,778 41,222 1 ( 61.7 ) 38 (2) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 39 (3) () () () 38 -- 2006 pp.7-11 39 -- 2006 pp.62-66 27

() 2 () 40 16 :[75]p67 4,500 5,000 40 -- 2006 pp.67-76 28

80 () 1970 (4) 41 ( )() () 2 (5) (Contingent Debt Facility) 2004 11 8 3 (CDF:Contingent Debt Facility CDF 42 41 () ( 4 ) 2006 pp.2-3 42 2004.11.8 29

17 () () SPC 10 30 (, ) (RMS) :2004 11 8 [64] UFJ 3 "EQ-LINE" 2006 10 17 50 EQ-LINE 18 (=RMS) EQ-Line() A B C UFJ SPC (, ) :2004 11 8 [65] EQ-LINE 30

UFJ UFJ 43 (6) CAT CAT (Catastrophe Risk) () CAT JA 44 19 CAT (SPC) + AAA :[60]p28 43 2006.10.18 44 -- 80 2005 pp.28-29 31

1999 4 SPC 2 3 2 1 45 2004 200 46 (7) () () () 47 1997 Enron Koch collar 1999 (WRMA:Weather Risk Management Association) ()() 48 45 -- 2006 pp.99-110 46 2004.4.20 47 [ 3 ] 2006 pp.386-372 48-13 - pp.3-6 32

33 20 [75]p11

2.4. (BCP) (BCP:Business Continuity Plan) BCP BCP 2001 9 BCP 49 21 BCP :(BC)[37]p3 49 (BCP) TRC EYE vol.85 2006 p.1 34

3. 3.1. ( 1-1.2,-1.3) () ( 2 ) 80 90 35

() () 3 () REIT PML ( 3 ) 3.2. () (a) (b) (c) (d) (a) 2 (2.1 ) (b)() () () (c) 36

PML (d) () 22 37

38 22 CF YES CF NO : 3.2.1. () () () ( 3-3.2)() ()

3.2.2. PML PML () 23 Y X :[3]p165 3.2.3. () 50 X Y X Y =0 =1 =-1 39

3.3. 3.3.1. 51 () 1990 () () () ()() 1990 ( 24) ( 2 2.1) 51 40

24 3.3.2. :[76]p33 4 (4 ) () () 52 3 1996 6 52 41

10%() 3.3.3. () DBJ ( 2.3 ) 42

(a) (b) (c) (d) 43

1990 44

1. 1.1. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) 53 1.1.1. 54 1.1.2. 3 (a) (b) (c) 53 R.G 2005 pp.299-300 54 pp.300-307 45

() 55 1.1.3. 56 () ( ) 1.2. 1982 ( 57 )( 18) ( 18) 25 55 pp.308-309 56 pp.322-323 46

3 (a) (b) (c) 11 57 58 25 18 18 :[72]p205 57,, 2001 pp.875-876 58, 2005 pp.209-211 47

1.3. 1.3.1. 3 59 26 :[36]p11 60 1.3.2. 1998 59 2006 pp.1-2 60 pp.109-110 48

26 61 1.3.3. 2 () 62 26 63 61 pp.113-114 62 pp.110-113 63 pp.110-113 49

1998 64 1.3.4. 65 2007 100% 90% 10% 95% 100% 2008 64 pp.111-113 65 2006 pp.84-86 50

5 66 67 100% 6,000 68 27 :[23] 66 19 () 2006 http://www.keidanren. or.jp/japanese/policy/2006/065/honbun.html#part2 67 2006 http://www.mof.go.jp/ singikai/ zeicho/top.htm 68 2006 http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/ 51

2. 2.1. SFAS 143 2.1.1. () () 2001 8 SFAS 143 (Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations) SFAS 143 69 2.1.1. 2000 2000 2 (Accounting for Obligations Associated with the Retirement of Long-Lived Assets) 1996 2 (Accounting for Certain Liabilities Related to Closure or Removal of Long-Lived Assets) (decommissioning costs) 7 (Using Cash Flow Information and Present Value in Accounting Measurements) () 69 2005 pp.181-187 52

70 1996 2000 ( fair value) (expected present value technique) 71 2.1.2. SFAS 143 1996 2000 2001 6 SFAS 143 (Accounting for Asset Retirement Obligations) 2000 SFAC 6 SFAS 143 72 2.1.3. SFAS 143 () (a)(b)(c) 73 SFAS 143 70 2006 pp.111-112 71 pp.114-115 72 pp.131-132 73 (promissory estoppel) 53

SFAC 6 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) SFAS 143 (a) (b) SOP(Statement of Position)96-1 ( )(Environmental Remediation Liabilities (including Auditing Guidance)) 74 1996 2000 () SFAS SFAS 143 SFAS 143 75 74 "" 2005 pp.181-183 75 "" 2006 pp.139-140 54

2.1.4. SFAS 143 () (a) (b) (a) (c) (d) 76 2.2. IASB 2.2.1. IAS 37 (Provisions, Contingent Liabilities and Contingent Asset) IAS 37 (IAS37-10) 76 2006 pp.134-136 55

(IAS37-10) (IAS37-10) (IAS37-12) IAS37 (IAS37-12) (IAS37-12) 2.2.2. 3 (IAS37-13.14) (a) () (b) (probable) (c) (IAS37-13) (a) (b) ( ) 77 IAS37-19.20) 2.2.3. ( 2.2.1 ) 77 2002 pp.6-8,73-76 56

( 2.2.5 ) 2.2.4. ( 2.3.1 ) 2.1.9 ( 2.3.2 ) (a) (b) 78 28 NO NO YES YES NO YES YES NO NO () YES :IAS 37 B[18] 78 p.55 57

29 IAS 37 ) () ) ) () (1) (2) IAS36 IAS39109-111 IAS11 IAS12 IAS17 IAS19 (1) (2) :[15]p7 2.3. FASB SFAS 5 (Accounting for contingencies) SFAS 5 (SFAS5-1) SFAS 5 79 (a) (probable) 80 79 pp.3-6 80 SFAS (a) probable: 58

(b) (SFAS5-8) (a) probable (b) (a)(b) (reasonable possibility) 30 8182 30 SFAS 5 ) () ) ) () () SAPB8 SAPB126-8 SAPB25 () :[15]p5 SFAS 5 (a) (b) (b) reasonable possible: remote likely (c) remote: 3 81 pp.4-6 82 2006 pp.60-61 59

(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) 2.4. 2.4.1. 1989 5 1999 5 2000 ( 57 4 ) () (1966 7 25 )1998 3 31 31 2001 12 4 2018 3 ( 17 )( ) 2003 2001-2016 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2017 60

83 (1983 21 60% 2004 8 30 2005 83 1965 57 2006 3 84 110kW 300 1984 (1985 ) 110 kw (BWR) 178 (PWR) 192 (1995 ) 85 86 9 87 ( 31)2006 3 1.1 3.2 83 () http://www.japc.co.jp/haishi/index.htm 84 18 3 http://www.kepco.co.jp/ir/brief/h18/ kessan18.html 85 http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/policy/nuclear/ nuclear00.htm 86 10 87 2012 61

31 : 2006 3 [7] 2.4.2. 15,481 ()( ) 2.4.3. 2005 7 1 1 20,000 62

55 132 7-8-16 88 88 - No.2883 2005 63

3. 3.1. 1990 () () 89 3.2. () ( ) () () () 89 2006.09.09 pp.19-21 64

SFAS 143 SFAC 7 90 (2004.9) 32 91 FASBIASB FASB () SFAS 143 IASB IAS 37 IAS 19 () FASB IASB 90 ( ) 53 2001 pp.159-169 91 65

FASB 32 () FASB () IASB :[48]p8,11,12 3.3. (DD) M&A M&A MBO LBO M&A M&A (DD)DD DD 66

DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD DD (B/S) DD B/S B/S M&A B/S M&A 92,93 33 DD (,) DD DD DD DD :[26]p74 M&A DD B/S B/S DD B/S B/S 2 B/S DD 92 DD 93 1 2006 pp.73-76 67

M&A 3.4. 1984 FASB SFAC 5 (Recognition and Measurement in Financial Statements of Business Enterprises) FASB (comprehensive income) () (SFAC 5 ) () FASB FASB 1996 FASB 1997 SFAS 130 (Reporting Comprehensive Income) SFAS 130 (other comprehensive income) () SFAS 130 68

94 3.5. (= ) () 1999 (FASB1999,25 )IASB ( ) (IASB2005,128 ) SFAC 7 ()FASB (FASB2000,25,27 )IASB(2005) (IASB2005,416 ) 34 35 ()(= )() ()(= ) 95 94 R.G 2005 pp.146-149 95 -- 170 10 4 2006 pp.564-575 69

34 :--[13]p570 35 B/S [] [COF] () [CIF] [CIF] B/S [] [CIF] () [COF] () () COFCash Out Flow CIFCash In Flow B/SCIFCOF :--[13]p573 3.5.1. () (active market) FASB 70

()( ) 3 ( ) 2 (traditional approach) V ()CF m ( ) r () CFm V = t ( 1+ r) (expected cash flow approach) () p i ()CF i () Σpi CFi V = t ( 1+ r) µ () r f () V Σpi CF µ = ( 1+ r i t f ) 96 96 2004 Vol.56 No.12 pp.25-26 71

3.5.2. ( )() 2 () A 300 B B () A X ()A 315 A X X A A X A 97 97 No.2003-J-17 pp.24-28 72

3.6. IAS 37 SFAS 5 ( 18) SFAS 5 IAS 37 ( 18)(probable) SFAS 37 ( 18)IAS 37 98 98 2002 pp.208-221 73

74 36 :[19]p10-11

[1] R.G M.W.J.M.,,, 2005 [2], [ 3 ],, 2006 [3],,, 2005 [4],, 54, 2006 [5],,, 1998 [6],,,, 2004, Vol.56, No.12, [7] EDINET, https://info.edinet.go.jp/edihtml/main.htm [8],,, 2006 [9],,,, 2007 [10], (J-REIT),, 2001 [11],,, 2004.4.20 [12],, () ( 4 ), 2006 [13], --,,, 170 10 4 [14],, http://www.kajima.co.jp/tech/seismic/ [15],,, 2006 [16],,, 1999 [17], 18 3,, http://www.kepco. co.jp/ir/brief/h18/kessan18.html [18], (IFRSs)2004,, 2005 [19],,, 2004 [20],,, http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/higai/ index.html [21], --, (), 2005 75

[22],, ( 5 )2006 [23],, 2006, http://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/syuzei/siryou/ hikaku.htm [24],, 2006, http://www. mof.go.jp/singikai/zeicho/top.htm [25], - -,, 2006 [26],, 1,, 2006 [27],, http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/ policy/nuclear/, nuclear00.htm [28],,, 2005.3.23(2006.9.25 ) [29], PML, http://www.shinozukaken.co.jp/se_jisinrisuku/ portfolio.html [30],,, 23 2, 2004 [31], -, No.2883, 2005 [32],,, 2005 [33], --,, 2005 [34], 5, 2002 [35], --, http://www.nliro.or.jp/ service/ryoritsu/quake/tekiyou.html [36],,, 2006.04 [37], (BC), 2006 [38],,, 2005 [39],, 2006 [40], (BCP), TRC, EYE, vol.85, 2006 [41],, http://www.tse.or.jp/glossary/ [42],,, No.2003-J-17 [43],,,, Vol.46, No.8, 1994 [44],,, 2006 76

[45], - 13 -, [46],, ( ) 53, 2001 [47], --, 74, 2004 [48],,, 2004 [49], --,,, 166 11 5 [50],,, 2006 [51],,, 2005 [52],, 1997.2.1 [53], 10, 1997.2.7 [54],, 1997.2.15 [55],, 1997.2.20 [56], 19, 2006, http://www. keidanren.or.jp/japanese/policy/2006/065/honbun.html#part2 [57], (), http://www.japc.co.jp/haishi/ index.htm [58], (PML), http://www.jsca.or.jp/vol2/ 15tec_terms/backnumber_tec_terms.html, [59],, 1997.2.9 [60], --, 80 2005 [61],, 2006 [62],, 2005 [63], (2)--,,, 2005 [64],,, 2004.11.8 [65],,, 2006.10.18 [66],,, 1995 [67],,,2005.2.28 [68], Part1, 44 6, 2006 77

[69],,,, 132 8 2 [70], --,,, Vol.46 No.8 1994 [71],,,,, 2001 [72],,, 2002 [73],,, 2000 [74],,, 2006.10.3, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/ [75], --,, 2006 [76],,, 2003 78