2017 10 17 1

2017 10 17 2

9 28 10 10 22 2020 PB 2019 10 810 5 1 2020 PB PB 1 2 PB FTPL 6 PB GDP PB 2017 10 17 3

FTPL 1 2 10 2019 4 1 2019 4 2018 10 2019 1 2014 10 2015 10 9 21 0.1 YCC 1 YCC 1 2019 2 7 25 2017 10 17 4

2.8 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 4 2019 2 2013 4 QQE 4 CPI+2 +50/ YCC QQE 1 YCC YCC 隙 1 1 2017 9 6 2017 10 17 5

FOMC 9 1920 FOMC FF 1.001.2510 MBS 2015 12 9 2017 1 2018 3 FOMC 1 3.00 2.75 1 / B/S B/S10 3 60 300 1 3 60 MBS 40 200 1 3 40 6000 300 +200 12 FOMC FRB B/S 2017 10 17 6

FOMC B/S 2018 3 2019 2 1 FRB FOMC 4.00% 3.80% 3.60% 3.40% 3.20% 201920 2.80% 2.60% Jun-14 FRB Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 2015 12 B/S FOMC 捗 GDP PCE FOMC 謎 3.00% FRB20179 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP 2.22.5 2.02.3 1.72.1 1.62.0 1.82.0 (6) 2.12.2 1.82.2 1.82.0 n.a. 1.82.0 4.24.3 4.04.2 3.94.4 4.04.5 4.54.8 (6) 4.24.3 4.04.3 4.14.4 n.a. 4.54.8 PCE 1.51.6 1.82.0 2.0 2.02.1 2.0 (6) 1.61.7 1.82.0 2.02.1 n.a. 2.0 PCE 1.51.6 1.82.0 2.0 2.02.1 (6) 1.61.7 1.82.0 2.02.1 n.a. FRB 2017 10 17 7

FOMC FRB 2 2017 100 1 11 2017 100 105110 2015 1 2014 6 摯 1 1 16119 17120 2017 10 17 8

7 7 30 1.4 20 10 17 6500 0 2016 17 16-10 2015 7 2014 8.6-20 -30 3 INDB FRB 3 6 ECB 2017 10 17 9

2 9 2014 6 9 11 PBoC 2 2015 8 PBoC 1 2018 1 7 9 25-1 8 NEC 11 2017 10 17 10

HIA 1 9 FOMC 9 FOMC FOMC B/S FOMC ECB 10 26 6 7 6 27 ECB ECB 10 26 3 15,000 10,000 IMM 5,000 0-5,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000 15/09 15/12 16/03 16/06 16/09 16/12 17/03 17/06 Bloomberg 8 29 9 15 J 2017 10 17 11

/ -2 9 12 15 2 8 FRB -2 2018 5 EU 26.7% 26.0% -1 2017 10 17 12

9 ECB MRO 0.00 0.250.40 0.65 APP 600 12 2018 1 10 26 APP 7 20 APP 1 10 APP ECB 6 ECB ECB 1.201.25 APP APP 2 APP 3 2 1 the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability 2017 10 17 13

23 APP APP 10 26 the bulk of these decisions 10 10 200 I don't200 10 12 10 GDP HICP HICP 2017/18/19 +1.5/+1.2/1.56 2017 +4.62018 19 +8.3ECB 0.2 0.4 HICP 穿 APP 2017 10 17 14

HICP a low-inflation era 2007 Fed HICP ECB ECB HICP 10 26 9 ECB exogenous shocks to the exchange rate an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions 2 HICP 3 1 2017 10 17 15

HICP 逼 HICP HICP 19 1.20 / ECB ECB APP 10/ 1 2.5 1.05 1.1 2.0 1.15 1.5 1.2 1.25 1.0 1.3 1.35 / 0.5 1.4 10-1.45 0.0 2014/01 2014/07 2015/01 2015/07 2016/01 2016/07 2017/01 2017/07 Bloomberg / 2017 10 17 16

ECB 4 10 26 ECB 9 24 RAI ECB ECB EU 2 2019 4 ECB 2019 10 2011 2011 4 SMP 2012 9 ECB ECB 2 ECB 2017 5 20 ECB 2017 10 17 17

ECB 2011 ECB 1 2018 5 31 2018 1 EU ECOFIN EU QMV3 ECB 3 2018 2015 1 5 5 4 1 2015 1 ECB 2022 1 26 2 2011 11 2012 12 31 2011 12 5 3 Qualified Majority Voting QMV ECOFIN 2 55 28 16 EU 65 2 QMV the double majorityqmv EU 35 4 the blocking minority 2017 10 17 18

ECB ECB ECB 6 15 21 ECB 辿 40 煽 +2 ECB MCI 9 ECB MCIMonetary Condition Index) 1 MCI REER REER 6:11999 1 2013 8 2014 8 /1.301.40 2014 6 HICP REER MCI MCI 5 4 /+10 +3 MCI MCI 61 OECD GDP 2017 10 17 19

1 REER REER BIS REER 1745 7 5 REER 2014 6 146 153 HICP REER 2017 7 93.40 REER 2012 8 91.90 REER 2018 2019 REER 9 ECB 4 ECB 2017 10 17 20