わが国のレポ市場について―理論的整理と実証分析―

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カルマンフィルターによるベータ推定( )

Transcription:

GCGC SC GCSC SC SC E-mail: yasunari.inamura@boj.or.jp E-mail: naohiko.baba@boj.or.jp

GC general collateralscspecial collateral Griffiths and Winters GCFF Jordan and JordanDuffie matched book GC GC SC DuffieKrishnamurthy

SC SC Duffie AB AB A B A B

GC SCGC SC

SC SC P 1 (1+R)R P 1 P 1 ( 1+ R) P 1 P 2 GC

P 1 P 2 P 1 P 2 R P 1 R P 1 P 2 + P 1 R SCGC GC SC R S/N

GCSC TIBOR GC GC SC GCSC

GC GC GCFF StigumGC GCFF DuffieKrishnamurthy GC PP (1+ GC R P P P R F RTGSreal time gross settlement

F F P (1+ R )GC R F = P(1+ R). DuffieKrishnamurthySC GC SCGC SC SG S P S GP G P con P S > P G SR S G R G P S > P G

SG S G π π = (P con P S ) + (P con P G ) P G R G + P S R S. S G P S 1+ R = G. P G 1+ R S G S P S P G = R G R S. P G R S SC R G GC SC R S R G.

R S > R G S GC SC SC s=r G R S A B 0 R G R S GC SCSC GC

R S SCR S GCR G SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC

CF CF BISmarket liquidity SC ASC B convenience yield Hull

Krishnamurthy SCSC SCGC SC t = T P con t P S, t (R S, t )P G, t (R G, t ) P S, t > P G, t t SC GC t +1 π t +1 π t +1 = (P G, t +1 P G, t ) (P S, t +1 P S, t ) P G, t R G, t + P S, t R S, t. t E t [π t+1 ] = 0 E t [( PG, t + 1 PG, t ) ( PS, t + 1 PS, t )] = PS, t RS, t PG, t RG, t, t = T P con t = 0 t = T 1 P S,0 P G,0 = T 1 t= 0 E [ P R P R ]. 0 G, t G, t S, t S, t

P S, 0 > P G, 0 R S, t < R G, t T 1 t = 1 P P = ( P R P R ) + E [ P R P R ]. S, 0 G, 0 G, 0 G,0 S,0 S, 0 0 G, t G, t S, t S, t t = 0 t = 0 t = 0 SC T SC SC B Buraschi and Menini

SC Krishnamurthy Krishnamurthy

Jordan and Jordan SCSC SC SC SCSC P G P S SC Jordan and Jordan McCulloch BB tt

SC

Jordan and Jordan GCSC RS i, t T ( PG, t RG, t PS, t R S, t ), τ = t i i t T R G R S GCSC SC

P i, t P i, t = α i Dummy i + βrs i, t. H 0 : β = 0H 1 : β > 0 t H 0 : β = 1H 1 : β 1 Dummy i i = 1,, 10 H 0 : β = 1χ 2 β SC t it

t p β α 1 Dummy α 2 Dummy α 3 Dummy α 4 Dummy α 5 Dummy α 6 Dummy α 7 Dummy α 8 Dummy Dummy α 9 Dummy α 10 t p β α 1 Dummy α 2 Dummy α 3 Dummy p H 0 : β = 0 H 1 : β> 0p H 0 : β = 1 H 1 : β 1 p

SC SC DuffieKrishnamurthy SC SC when-issued SC SC SC Keane

SC

A CP

A FEDBAbankers acceptance BA BAFEDBA BOE

Federal Reserve BulletinFlow of Funds Accounts Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System Bank of England, Monetary and Financial Statistics The Debt Management Office

GC GCGC GC RTGS GC GC GC GC A GC RTGS GC GC GC RTGS

GCO/NT/N O/N GC GC

R i Q i MR i i = 1i = 2 MC A MC = MR 1 = MR 2, ε 1 ε 2 ε 1 < ε 2 MR 1 R1 1 ε 1 = 1 1, MR2 = R2 1, ε 2 R i D 2 R D 1 R MC Q 2 Q 1 MR 2 0 MR 1 MC

1 R1 1 ε 1 1 R 2 1, ε = 2 ε 1 > ε 2 R 1 < R 2 R 1 = R 2

RTGS BIS, Market Liquidity: Further Findings and Selected Policy Implications,, BIS, Implications of Repo Markets for Central Banks,, Buraschi, Andrea, and Davide, Menini, Liquidity Risk and Special Repos: How Well do Forward Repo Spreads Price Future Specialness?, mimeo, 2001. Duffie, Durrel, Special Repo Rates, Journal of Finance, 51, 1996, pp. 493-526. Griffiths, Mark, D., and Drew, B., Winters, The Effect of Federal Reserve Accounting Rules on the Equilibrium Level of Overnight Repo Rates, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 24, 1997, pp. 815-832. Hull, John, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 4 th edition, Prentice Hall, 2000. Jordan, Bradford, D., and Susan, D., Jordan, Special Repo Rates: An Empirical Analysis, Journal of Finance, 52, 1997, pp. 2051-2072. Keane, Frank, Repo Rate Patterns for New Treasury Notes, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, FRB New York, 2 (10), 1996. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, The Bond/Old-Bond Special, mimeo, Northwestern University, 2001. McCulloch, Huston, J., The Tax Adjusted Yield Curve, Journal of Finance, 30, 1975, pp. 811-830. Stigum, Marcia, The Repo and Reverse Markets, Irwin, 1989.