IMES DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES Discussion Paper No. 99-J-17 INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES BANK OF JAPAN 100-8630 203

IMES Discussion Paper Series 99-J-17 1999 6 * JEL classification E52 E58 *

...1...6...11...11...16...23...27...33...37...37

GDP 1

110 CPI 105 100 GDP 95 90 CPI 1929/1Q 37/4Q GDP 1929/1Q 37/4Q 85 80 75 70 91/1 91/3 92/1 92/3 93/1 93/3 94/1 94/3 95/1 95/3 96/1 96/3 97/1 97/3 98/1 98/3 99/1 1991/1Q CPI GDP 1929/1Q 37/4Q 91/1Q 29/1Q 100 U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics N.S. Balke and R.J. Gordon, Historical Data, in R.J. Gordon ed., The American Business Cycle The University of Chicago Press: 1986 2

12 10 Moody's Baa 1929/1Q 37/4Q O/N 8 6 CP4 6 1929/1Q 37/4Q 10 4 10 1929/1Q 37/4Q CP3 2 0 91/1 91/3 92/1 92/3 93/1 93/3 94/1 94/3 95/1 95/3 96/1 96/3 97/1 97/3 98/1 98/3 99/1 1991/1Q 1929/1Q 37/4Q N.S. Balke and R.J. Gordon, Historical Data, in R.J. Gordon ed., The American Business Cycle The University of Chicago Press: 1986 3

130 120 M2+CD 110 100 90 80 M2 1929/1Q37/4Q 70 60 91/1 91/3 92/1 92/3 93/1 93/3 94/1 94/3 95/1 95/3 96/1 96/3 97/1 97/3 98/1 98/3 99/1 99/3 1991/1Q M 2 +CD 1929/1Q 37/4Q M 2 91/1Q 29/1Q 100 N.S. Balke and R.J. Gordon, Historical Data, in R.J. Gordon ed., The American Business Cycle (The University of Chicago Press : 1986) 4

5

6

GDP 30 25 20 15 GDP 10 5 0-5 70/1 71/3 73/1 74/3 76/1 77/3 79/1 80/3 82/1 83/3 85/1 86/3 88/1 89/3 91/1 92/3 94/1 95/3 97/1 98/3 7

k 220 180 140 100 60 70/1 71/3 73/1 74/3 76/1 77/3 79/1 80/3 82/1 83/3 85/1 86/3 88/1 89/3 91/1 92/3 94/1 95/3 97/1 98/3 8

9

M 2 CD 70 S 15.2% 16.4% N.A. 80 S 7.9% 9.1% 9.9% 90 S 5.5% 3.6% 4.3% 9.5% 9.8% 7.1% 10

GDP 11

1994 12 12

13

14

X 15

16

17

M CD 5 6 4.5 5 4 4 3.5 3 3 2 2.5 2 1 1.5 0 1 0.5 0 94.1 94.3 95.1 95.3 96.1 96.3 97.1 97.3 98.1 98.3 99.1-1 -2-3 M 2 +CD M2+CD 18

7 6 5 4 3 TB 2 1 0 92/1 92/7 93/1 93/7 94/1 94/7 95/1 95/7 96/1 96/7 97/1 97/7 98/1 98/7 99/1 19

20

21

Eichengreen, B. and Garber, P. M., Before the Accord: U S Monetary-Financial Policy 1945-51, Deutsche Bank Global Markets, pp.59-83, April,1999. Krugman 22

23

24

Financial Times, Addressing the US bubble, April.22,1998. 25

P. Stella, Do Central Bank Need Capital? IMF Working Paper, July, 1997. 26

27

McCallum, B.T., Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan and Reply to Comments by Kunio Okina, Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 11, pp. 1-45 and pp. 55-58, 1993. Okina, K., Comments on Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan, Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 11, pp. 47-54, 1993. Goodhart, C.A.E., What should Central Banks Do? What should be Their Macroeconomic Objectives and Operations?, The Economic Journal, 104, pp.1424-1436, November, 1994. 28

450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 98.9 98.10. 98.11 98.12 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.4 99.5 29

30

31

M=kH* H*M k 32

CP 33

15 Allan Meltzer, The Transmission Process, Prepared for The Monetary Transmission Process: Recent Development and Lessons for Europe, Bundesbank, Frankfurt,March25-27, 1999. 34

16 17 35

1 36

37

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