16811
18 915 1619 2023 24 IPCC-SRES 2534 IIASA-WEC 3546 4752 Shell 2001 5356 WEO2002 5764 EC2003 6570 IEO2003 7176 7782 8388 10 8994
1 2100 IPCC-SRES IIASA-WEC IAE Shell 2001 WEO2002 EC2003 IEO2003 Special Report on Emission IPCC Scenarios SRES 2000 IIASAGlobal Energy Perspectives WEC 1998 15 2100 2004 Shell International IEA World Energy Outlook 2002 2002 EC Energy Needs, Choices and possibilities Scenarios to 2050 2001 World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030 2003 USDOE International Energy Outlook 2003 2003 2100 2100 2050 2030 2030 2025
A1 A2 IPCC B1 -SRES B2 IIASA-WEC 2050 87 113 IPCC-SRES 2534 2100 71 151 IIASA-WEC 2
GDP 3 / A1 A2 IPCC B1 -SRES B2 A IIASA B -WEC C SD-Vision 2050 2000 3 7 IPCC-SRES 2534 IIASA-WEC 35 2100 2000 8 20 / IIASA-WEC, B 2100 6
GDP 4 / A1 A2 B1 B2 A B C IPCC -SRES IIASA -WEC 2050 2000 2 5 2100 2000 4 17 2000 2050 IIASA-WEC, B 42 2100 OECD 36 0 2 4 6 8 /
/ A1 A2 B2 IIASA -WEC B1 IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 IPCC-SRES IIASA-WEC 38.6 1EJ=23.88M 1.4% 2050 2000 2 3.5 5 2100 2000 1.7 5.4 IPCC-SRES 2534IIASA-WEC 35 IAE 47 IAE A B C
/ 2100 74 2030 IIASA-WEC, B / 6
/ A1 A2 B1 B2 A1 A2 A3 B C1 A B C IPCC -SRES IIASA -WEC IAE A1 C1 A3 A2 A2 CO 2 A B B2 C A1 B B1 / A1 A2 B1 B2 A1 A2 A3 B C1 A B C IPCC -SRES IIASA -WEC IAE WEO2002 EC2003 C1 A3 A1 A1 A2 B2 B1 B A C B 7 A2
/ A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 WEO2002 EC2003 2030 100 2050 8 2100 CO 2 750ppm 650ppm 600ppm 550ppm 450ppm IIASA-WEC IPCC-SRES 32 33 A B C IAE A B C
/ A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 / A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 2020 2040 9 A B C IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 A B C IAE IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 A B C IAE A B C
IIASA-WEC 10 [ ( )] [ ( )] [ ( )] A1 A3 A2 B C1 C2 [ ( )] [ ( )] A3 A1 A2 B C1 C2 [ ( )] [ ( )] 1 1360
3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 USGS 1.57 1.54 1.27 1.22 2.31 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1981 1985 1990 1993 1996 (1984) (1987) (1991) (1994) (2000) 2.28 1.35 1985 1990 1993 1996 1.49 1.64 (1987) (1991) (1994) (2000) 11
12 USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 0 1 2 3 4 Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis) DOE/EIA
2.15 2000 95 0.88 1.27 OPEC 0.75 OPEC 0.52 Hubbert / 13 2010 Forecasts of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050Jean Laherrere, Peterotech 2003 (New Delhi)
10 10 14 10 10 2060 2090 Why Carbon Fuels will Dominate the 21th Century s Global Energy EconomyPeter R. Odell, IEW2004
EDMC/ 2004 2001 2002 10 15 / /
/ A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 16 A B C IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 A B C IAE
kwh/ B (IAE) IIASA-WEC B C (IAE) A1 IPCC-SRES 17 A1 B1 A2 2030 B2 IEO2003-H EC2003 A3 A2 C2 IEO2003-L WEO2002 A (IAE) C1
18 IPCC-SRES 38.6 B1 IIASA-WEC 38.6
kwh/ IIASA-WEC 19 MWd/t 0.2% 20.9 tnu/twh A1 A2 A3 B C2 C1
20 IAE JAERI NRE ISEP 15 2100 2004 2050 2003 WG 2030 2004 2030 ISEP 2004 IAE
CO 2 IAE 47 JAERI 78NRE 83 ISEP 89 CO 2 / IAE A B NRE JAERI A C C NRE A B B A ISEP C B JAERI AC NRE C ISEP High NRE ISEP 38.72GJ/KL EJ=23.88M Low / IAE A C B 21
22 ISEP JAERI NRE 2030
kwh NRE ISEP JAERI 2030 23
24 2050 100 2050 3~7 2100 8~20 GDP 2100 2050 2~3.5 2100 1.7~5.4 2050 60, 62 2050 2030 IIASA-WEC 2050 1700GWe 2100 5000GWe CO 2
25 IPCC-SRES SRES 1996 2000 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES Illustrative Scenario 40 Marker Scenario A1 AIM A2 ASF ICF Consulting B1 IMAGE RIVM B2 MESSAGE IIASA RIVM IIASA CO2
IPCC-SRES 26 GDP / GDP A2 A1 A1 A2 B2 B1 A1, B1IIASA Lutz, 1996 A2 B2 1998 B1 B2 A1 B1 A2 B2 GDP / A1 A2 B1 B2
IPCC-SRES EJ/ 27 100 1kWh=3.6MJ) A1 A2 B1 B2
IPCC-SRES EJ/ 28 38.6 1kWh=9.33MJ) A1 A2 B1 B2
IPCC-SRES EJ/ 29 100 1kWh=3.6MJ) A1 A2 OECD1990 OECD1990 OECD OECD B1 B2 OECD1990 OECD1990 OECD OECD
IPCC-SRES EJ/ 30 38.6 1kWh=9.33MJ) A1 OECD1990 A2 OECD1990 OECD OECD B1 B2 OECD1990 OECD1990 OECD OECD
IPCC-SRES 31 kwh/ 38.6 B1 B1
IPCC-SRES 32 [ ] Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm A1FI A1T A1B 40 A1
IPCC-SRES 33 SRES SRES CO2463 ppm 623 0.8 2.6 2050 2100 478 1099 1.4 5.8 [ ] Technical Summary, A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail, IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg1tartechsum.pdf
IPCC-SRES 34 A1 21 A1 A1B A2 B1 A1 21 B2 A2 B1 A1
IIASA-WEC A1 A A2 A3 B (1) GWP CO 2 (1990)) 1990 2050 2100 /1990 2050 2100 A. 100 300 1.0 250 450 B. 20 75 200 0.8 90 200 350 C. 75 220 1.4 140 210 B C1 C C2 38.6 35
IIASA-WEC (2) 36
IIASA-WEC 37 / (3) GDP GDP
IIASA-WEC GDP 38 2000 2050 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 10000 /
IIASA-WEC / A1 B 39 (4) A2 C1 A3 C2
IIASA-WEC / A1 A2 A3 + + B C1 C2 40
IIASA-WEC 41 A1 B C1 2000 2050 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 /
IIASA-WEC kwh/ 42 A1 A2 A3 + + B C1 C2
43 IIASA-WEC kwh/ 38.6
IIASA-WEC 2050 30 GWe 44 2000 2010 80 2050 17kWe
IIASA-WEC 45 A1 A2 B A3 A3 B C1 C2 A1 A2 C2 MWd/t 0.2% 20.9 tnu/twh C1
IIASA-WEC (5) B A2 CO 2 2100 750ppm 46 A1 A3 C1 B C2 650ppm 600ppm 550ppm 450ppm
A B C CO 2 1) mill/kwh BAU CO 2 2) 100 CO 2 2) 30 60 40 47 30 40 10 3) 1) IPCC 550ppm WRE550 AC B 30 2) CO 2 2100 BAU 35 3) 30 2000 10 2100 OLG GRAPE A BAU IPCC-SRESB2B C 2030 A A 2100 35 IGCC CO290
IAE 48 A BAU B CO 2-100 C CO 2-30 A B C A B C
IAE 49 / A BAU / B CO2-100 / C CO2-30
IAE 50 / A BAU / B CO2-100 / C CO2-30
kwh/ IAE A BAU LWR FBR 51 kwh/ kwh/ B CO2-100 C CO2-30 FBR FBR LWR IGCC IGCC LWR
IAE 52 kwh/ A BAU LWR FBR kwh/ kwh/ B CO2-100 C CO2-30 LWR FBR FBR IGCC LWR IGCC
Shell 2001 53 GDP / / 2050 80100 1.52.5 / 8 23 GDP GDP
Shell 2001 54 Dynamic as Usual EJ/ Spirit of the Coming Age EJ/
Shell 2001 55 GJ/ 350 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 China India Korea Mexico Brazil EU Australia Japan US 75 50 25 OECD Thailand 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1000 1997 PPP 25000$/ 15000$/ Energy Needs, Choices and possibilities 10000$/ Scenarios to 2050, Shell International Ltd. (2001) 5000$/
125 100 75 50 25 0 Shell 2001 56 7.5% per annum / 2% per annum 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June, 2000 EJ/ 400 3 300 3500 NGL 200 8500 100 0 4% per annum 3% per annum 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 + 13,000 EJ (2.2 boe) + 5,000 EJ (1.0boe) 15,000 EJ (2.6boe) Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June 2000 and IPCC 2000 for unconventional Energy Needs, Choices and possibilities Scenarios to 2050, Shell International Ltd. (2001) boe
57 WEO2002 GDP 1971 2000 2000 2010 2010 2030 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 / / /
WEO2002 58 GDP 1995 /
WEO2002 59 / 33 100 /
WEO2002 / 60 OECD
WEO2002 61 kwh/ kwh/
WEO2002 62 kwh/ kwh/ OECD
WEO2002 63 / /
WEO2002 64 / GWe
EC2003 65 GDP / PPP
EC2003 GDP 1990-2000 66 GDP PPP 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 / /
EC2003 67 / /
EC2003 68 kwh/
EC2003 69 / /
EC2003 70 CO 2 / /
IEO2003 GDP 71 / L H R H R L H R L
IEO2003 / / L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H 72
IEO2003 kwh/ / L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H 73
kwh/ L R H L R H L R H 74 2010
IEO2003 75 GWe GWe
77 2000= 100 1. 91 2. GDP 7 EDMCGDP/ 2002 GDP 2000 2010 2030 2050 127 128 117 101 GDP 1.2% 0.6% 0% GDP 536 604 680 680 GDP/ 421 473 581 677
JAERI 78 CO 2 *1 A 2030 70 GWe 2050 10 GWt 2050 *3 2010 B 2010 2005 60 40 C 2050 90 e 2050 GWt *1 2010 CO 2 1990 *2 2020 *3 B CO 2 GW ( e) B C A *2 (GWt) A C 90 70 20 10
JAERI 79 A A: B: C: B C
JAERI 80 1000kWh A B C A: B: C:
JAERI 81 A A: B: C: B C
JAERI 82 A FCV A: B: C: B FCV C FCV
83 2030 LNG 18.09$/bblOE 23.20$/bblOE High 24.50 $/bbloe High+ LNG formula 0.8% 202030 0.4% Low 0.4% 202030 1.6% High 2030 8 Low 2030 17 10 High 201030 35$/bbl 2129$/bbl High 2030 10 201030 $15/bbl Low
84 4,967 5,121 5,108 4,742 4,116 126,926 2000 127,473 2010 123,311 1990 117,580 124,107 2030 2020 208 202 179 252 LNG $/t 35 28 2000 39 21 2010 44 41 $/t 29 25 $/bbl 2030 2020 130 123 110 100 101 2,063 2,026 1,865 1,656 1,285 m 2 1,670 1,638 1,532 1,420 1,296 10 km 530 550 553 578 547 10 km 2000 2010 1990 2030 2020 NRE 2010/2003 2.0%, 2020/2010 1.7%, 2030/2020 1.2%
kl NRE 85 LNG 2030
kl NRE 86 LNG 2030
kwh NRE 2030 87 LNG
88 NRE CO 2 2030
89 10 2000=100 GDP 2010 2030
ISEP 1990 2000 2010 2030 12,361 12,693 12,753 11,763 4,180 4,802 5,014 4,902 90 2010/2000=1.4%, 2030/2020= A: 0.6%, B: 0.9%, C: -2.6% 96 100 m 2 1,286 1,655 10 km1,296 10 km 547 $/bbl 23 1990 2000 2010 2030 1,420 578 A 116 1,840 1,577 618 1995 28 A 29 B 118 1,844 1,584 634 B 29 A 138 1,996 1,781 648 A 35 B 149 2,034 1,836 646 1990 2000 2010 2030 B 35 C 1,230 1,039 389 C 36
ISEP 91 10 18 J 2010 2030
ISEP 92 10 18 J 2010 2030
ISEP 93 kwh 2010 2030
ISEP 94 CO 2 CO 2 2010 2030