Oct 25, 2013 1. (1) (2) (3) (4) 2. 3. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)2013 4. (1) FRB (2) 9 FOMC (3) Tapering (03-3497-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (03-3497-6284) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp Summary 10 1 17 2 10 16 1 15 2 7 17 1 15 2 7 2 1012 1012 2% 2014 FRB 2 FRB FRB 9 FOMC Fed 2013 13
Hastart Rule 1 10 16 2 1 15 CR : Continuing Resolution 10 1 16 17 Debt Ceiling 2 7 2 7 3 4 3 3 12 13 2011 4 CR 1 15 2 7 10 17 5 1 Hastart Rule 1990 the majority of the majority rule 2 81vs 18 55 45 285vs 144 234 201 3 4 Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction 5 10 17 17
WSJ/NBC 6 9 44%10 53% 24% 38% 40% 42% 41% 2014 3 1 2 1012 CEA 1012 0.25%Pt10 12 9 2% 1012 GDP 2% 1012 1012 2014 6 Poll Finds GOP Blamed More for Shutdown WSJ Oct 10,2013
10 1 17 2 10 16 1 15 2 7 17 12 13 2011 1 15 2 7 2 1012 1012 2% 2% 2014 2013 1.6%2014 2.4% 10 9 FRB 2 FRB FRB FRB FRB Fed 9 FOMC Fed 2013 Fed 13
10 116 2 10 22 9 CPI 10 10 79 GDP 11 9 10 22 9 NFP : Nonfarm Payroll 14.8 Employment 18 8 16.9 19.3 2.4 7 10.4 8.9 1.5 2 0.9 6 1718 NFP 7 8.9 6 10 8 19.3 350 9 14.8 300 250 79 14.3 200 4 6 18.2 79 U.S. Department of Labor 11 8 10 10 1 16 Government Shutdown 64.0 6 63.5 5 63.0 4 08 09 10 11 12 13 ( ) U.S. Department of Labor NFP 1.0 9 7.24%87.28% 0.5 2008 11 6.81% 0.0-0.5 13.3-1.0-1.5 7.3-2.0 63.19%8-2.5-3.0 12 13 63.22% 150 100 50 66.5 66.0 65.5 65.0 64.5 2.0 1.5 8 9 9 6 1201 1202 1203 1204 1205 1206 1207 1208 1209 1210 1211 1212 1301 1302 1303 1304 1305 1306 1307 1308 1309 ( ) U.S. Department of Labor 11 10 9 8 7
0.56%Pt 08 09 10 11 12 13 9 2.1%82.3% 2% 2.2%82.2% 2011 2 2% 9 8 9 7 0.5%8 0.2% 9 0.4% 9 7 17 16 8 7 15 9 46 14 13 1.8% 1.6% 12 4.0 3.5 79 9 08 09 10 11 12 13 130 7 120 110 85.1 8 82.1 9 100 77.5 4 80 90 80 70 10 75.2 60 50 11 10 40 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 7
46 4 4 6 12 14.2%79 9 9 9 5.0 11 2005 5.0 8 5.0 2005 4.8 79 60 ISM 55 6 50.9 9 56.2 6 52.8 8 58.6 9 54.4 35 ISM 30 08 09 10 11 12 13 46 0.7% 7 9 2% 79 8 0.1 0.0 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 50 45 40
4,656 7 4,637 7 78 4,647 4 6 4,711 GDP 78 46 3.7 46 10.5 46 2012 46 14 10 8 6 4 2 ASEAN 78 46-6 2013/03 2013/06 2013/09 2013/06 2013/07 2013/08 1.74 6 6.6 7 10 9 8 7 6 4 8 46 2 0 79-2 -4 GDP 2013/03 2013/06 2013/09 2013/06 2013/07 2013/08 2000-400 -500 8 Fed 1500 PCE 8-600 1.2%71.3% -700 1000 8 7 4.8%8-800 0.2% 500-900 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 PCE 1.2%7 1.1%FOMC 2% 1.5% 7 3.0 PCE 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 16 12 0-2 -4 0.5 10 11 12 13 ()U.S. BEA
2013 79 GDP 1.8% 46 2.5% 8 1012 1.9% 2013 1.6% 2013 2013 2% 79 1.8%1012 1.9%2 2% 2013 2014 2.4% 2014 8 79 GDP
10 9 FRB FRB FRB 15 FRB FRB FRB 9 FOMC
9 FRB Fed 8 1 3 FRB 2012 10 7 FRB 2 014 FOMC FRB 10 9 9 FOMC Minutes FOMC 9 FOMC Fed a relatively Minutes closed call For several members, the various considerations made the decision to maintain an unchanged pace of asset purchases at this meeting a relatively close call. Tap FOMC 9 FOMC Tapering Tapering further evidence [Q]uestions were raised about the effects on the housing sector and on the broader economy of the tightening in financial conditions in recent months, as well as about the considerable risks surrounding fiscal policy. [T]he announcement of a reduction in asset purchases at this meeting might trigger an 9 2012 Optimal-Model FOMC 10
additional, unwarranted tightening of financial conditions, perhaps because markets would read such an announcement as signaling the Committee's willingness, notwithstanding mixed recent data, to take an initial step toward exit from its highly accommodative policy. [A] number of participants thought that risk-management considerations called for a cautious approach and that, in light of the ambiguous cast of recent readings on the economy, it would be prudent to await further evidence of progress before reducing the pace of asset purchases. 9 FOMC Tapering Tapering FOMC 9 FOMC But with financial markets appearing to expect a reduction in purchases at this meeting, concerns were raised about the effectiveness of FOMC communications if the Committee did not take that step. 9 FOMC Tapering 10 9 FOMC Tapering FOMC Tapering 9 FOMC Tapering 9 FOMC Tapering Fed 9 FOMCTapering Tapering f urther evidence 10 2930FOMC 9 FOMC 23 NY 10 FOMCTapering 1012 10 2930 FOMC
11 10 FOMC Tapering 70 Tapering NY 12 FOMC 100 30 Tapering 0 9 FOMC 10 ()Fed NY Tapering 1012 12 13 12 1718 FOMC Tapering 12 12 FOMC Tapering FOMC 13 Tapering 2829 FOMC Tapering 2 7 Tapering 3 90 80 60 50 40 20 10 9/23 9/9 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 11 10 22 2 9 10 28 9 29 9 30 9 CPI
Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 1.6 2.8 3.1 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.7 2.3 1.8 19.8 12.5 14.2 9.8 4.6 4.7 6.5 4.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 8.0 3.1 0.6 6.9 102 105 99 2.5 2.5 2.4 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 9.9 7.5 2.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 70.4 62.8 75.1 80.8 82.1 81.0 81.8 79.7 6.0 4.2 3.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 4.5 3.5 2.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 2.5 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 896 957 869 835 883 891 13.9 3.9 9.5 25.9 1.6 6.5 0.0 1.9 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 13.8 21.4 8.5 1.1 3.3 1.5 27.3 31.4 11.5 2.2 3.7 0.1 127 123 118 35 39 39 147 144 143 44 47 47 3.2 1.4 10.5 3.1 0.9 0.3 2.7 1.8 6.6 2.7 1.5 0.3 50.6 52.9 50.2 55.8 50.9 55.4 55.7 56.2 55.1 55.2 53.2 56.3 52.8 56.0 58.6 54.4 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 209 207 182 143 172 89 193 148 232 212 190 129 194 100 161 126 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.33 0.40 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.40 1.72 1.96 2.30 2.81 2.30 2.58 2.74 2.81 99.0 100.7 101.7 101.9 101.7 102.2 102.1 101.9 13104 14579 14910 15130 14910 15500 14810 15130 1426 1569 1606 1682 1606 1686 1633 1682