1 st 2 nd Dec

2 12 1 2 2

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 1 3

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 1 2 1 2 1. 2. (2004) 3. 3 4 3 1 2 1. 2. 3 1. 2. 3. 4 4 1 2 5 1 2 6 4

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 5

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 1 10 (2004) 4 120 28 2 6

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2 1 1990 2006 6 3 7

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2007 28 ()() 8

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2 1 2006 Bohn (Bohn(1998)) 2011 Bohn(1998) 2004 2004 Bohn 1998 20052004 9

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 22004 T B B G rb t t t1 t t1 T t t B t B 1 Gt t r S t S t Tt ( 1 r) B S B t1 t t 1 1 1 B t 1 St Bt St ( S t1 Bt 1) 1 r 1 r 1 r 0 G t 10

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 1 t t B 0 ( ) St lim( ) 1 r t 1 1 r 1 B t 0 2 1 t S lim ( ) Bt B 0 S r 4 t 1 r r S B (2.1) 0 r 2004 3 20032005 20032005 3 GDP 20032005 S 2005 B 0 S * B * 28 11 (1.1 (1.1) PB 4 23 1 4(2004) 28 11 9 13 11

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 * * S ( B 0) r S * B * r S * PBPB * PB B r PB (2.2) PB 3 (2004) 19972001 20032005 12

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 4 11 2 11 3 2~4 2 28 11 13

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 PB (2.2) 4 1 14

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 3435 4 3 4 5 15

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 16

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 17

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 3 1 5 18

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2 19

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2 1 (1999)(2004) (1999) 2 (2004) 2002 2002 DID 15 65 DID (2002)(2007) (2002) 12 (2004) did (Densely Inhabited District) 20

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 14.7 (2007) 2 DID 15 65 2 1980 2000 5 915 2 (2002) ln() 2 2 2 46 23 3 2 0.9350.807 2 0.658 2 0.09 (2002)(2007) 17 18 21

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2 2 5 1 2 (2002) (2002) 3 1 (2002) (2002) 2 2000 65 5 1% 10% (2002) 22

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 (2002)= C n a (3.1) C n a o C n a o (3.2) r (3.3) (3.2) C r n a o (3.4) (3.4) n C n 1 a o r (3.5) n (3.5) ' 1 ln A0 C ln r u (3.6) i ln A0 ln ni ln ai ln oi ni i i [cnaori] 17 46 5 16 17 1 01 05 1 23

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 2 6 t 1 P 0.12 0.907 lnn 5 P (3.6)(3.6a) 6 24

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 (3.6) (3.6a) t- t- P- P- A 0 0.5704 0.4923 (1.0753) (0.915) (-0.289) (-0.365) ln ' -0.5592-0.5576 (-5.275) (-5.165) (0.0000) (0.0000) ln (0.0369) (1.605) (0.1161) ln 0.4925 0.5194 (4.344) (4.548) (0.0001) (0.0000) ln -0.4958-0.5576 (-7.893) (-9.737) (0.0000) (0.0000) 46 46 41 42 R 2 0.9156 0.9103 R 2 0.9074 0.9039 3.5472 3.5472 0.2994 0.3182 3 28 11 (2004)(2007) (1999) (1999) 1.9 25

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 (3.6) 3 (3.6) 7 1.5 (2002) 12 14.7 (2002) 11 2.3 4 ((2004)) 26

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 4 3 1.5 1 PB 7 5 27

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 28

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 4 1 () 3 3 () 8 3 () 45.3 8 100 150.8 62.5 2.4 ( )() () () 29

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 23.5 8 178.8 53.7 3.3 1000 3000 3 2 3 5 (2002) 30

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 (2002) 2 1 11 1 ()() 1% 2 () 9 1 6 2 9 31

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 () 9 2 () () 10 1 6 8 1 8 ()() 2 5 32

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 5 33

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 5 3 1.5 4 1 2 1 2 2005 15 2,269 2,323 513 1.86% 2006 2007 1 1 3 4 2 3 4 34

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 % 4000 3 11 1 2 3 3 1000 5000 35

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 3 2006 10% 20~30% 10% 3 2006 2007 2006 2 2 1 36

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 1 2005 5 2006 2006 37

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 6 38

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 Henning Bohn(1998), "The behavior of U.S. public debt and deficits," Quarterly Journal of Economics 113, p.949-p.963. (2007) 36 p139~154 (2002). Vol.519 (2004) (2002) 61 p59-p8 (2004) (1999) (2004) (2002) February2002 (2003) (2002) 54 1 41p51 (2001) (2005), Keio Economic Society Discussion Paper Series No.06-4, (2006), 3 Book Conference,, E(1997) (2006) 28 () No.702 (2006/5) pp. 1229 (2006) 28 () No.703 (2006/6) pp. 2049 (2001) 19 ( 18 12 1 )..(2007) (2005) 200510 (2002) 54 1 p3p13 (2001) 3 (2004) (1998) (2005) (2004) (2002) 39

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 (2006) Broda and Weinstein RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-032, 2006 4 (2007) (2004) 04A-16 (2005)-- Vol.55, No.9 pp. 6781 (2006) Vol.54, No.8 (2006/7) pp. 813 (2004) RPI Discussion paper series (No.04A-12) (2006) : 3(2), 6-24. 2006 (2006)RP 2006 no.2 volume19 p10p16 ( 2005-1), 2006, pp.52-64. 31 : KGPS reviewvol.4(20050331) pp. 43-66 (2002) 54 1 15-27 (2005)90, 13 19 ( 18 12 1 ) http://www.cao.go.jp/zeicho/tosin/181201a.html (2007 9 22 ) http://www.soumu.go.jp/czaisei/czais.html (2007 10 25 ) http://www.soumu.go.jp/c-gyousei/dousyusei/index.html (2007 8 25 ) http://www8.cao.go.jp/bunken/h14/030/1-1.pdf (2007 10 21 ) ( 19 8 10 ) http://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/soken/kenkyu/zk077/zk077_06.pdf#search=' (2007 10 25 ) 40

1 st 2 nd Dec.2007 41