ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.241 首都直下地震における地方財政への影響 宮崎毅 August 2010 内閣府経済社会総合研究所 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan
ESRI ディスカッション ペーパー シリーズは 内閣府経済社会総合研究所の研究者および外部研究者によって行われた研究成果をとりまとめたものです 学界 研究機関等の関係する方々から幅広くコメントを頂き 今後の研究に役立てることを意図して発表しております 論文は すべて研究者個人の責任で執筆されており 内閣府経済社会総合研究所の見解を示すものではありません The views expressed in ESRI Discussion Papers are those of the authors and not those of the Economic and Social Research Institute, the Cabinet Office, or the Government of Japan.
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The Local Governments Cost of Disaster Response for the Tokyo Inland Earthquake Takeshi Miyazaki Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Meikai University Abstract Recently, the damage estimations for the anticipated Tokyo Inland Earthquake released by the Center of Disaster Management Council assumed extensive damage, including a death toll of approximately 11,000 people, the collapse of 850,000 buildings, and a maximum economic loss of 112 trillion yen in the event of a severe earthquake in the northern part of Tokyo Bay. While much research in the past has focused on estimating the cost of socioeconomic rehabilitation and reconstruction resulting from an extremely severe earthquake, the issue of cost breakdown and revenue loss at local government level has never been addressed. This paper estimates the cost of disaster emergency response, rehabilitation, and reconstruction from the Tokyo Inland Earthquake based on data from the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, and concludes that (1) the local governments effective cost for disaster response for the Tokyo Inland Earthquake is 24.3 trillion yen, which includes the cost credited to the local government bond (12.6 trillion yen) and general account budget (11.7 trillion yen), (2) the burden of recovery and reconstruction cost is extremely large for the Tokyo metropolitan government as compared to other local governments, (3) the effective recovery cost for the local governments is at its highest (further increases?) three to four years after the occurrence of the Tokyo Inland Earthquake. 2
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1995 34, 11-77. 2002. 2003. 1999. 2008 91 6-24. 2008a. 2008b 2008 2006 DRI II 7 40-59. (2005) 10 2 http://web.pref.hyogo.jp/contents/000038670.pdf. 2009 1996 1 1998 48(6) 49-73. 2009 2009 6 (2000) 91(1) 94-114. Blanchard, O. and M. Kremer (1997) Disorganization, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 112, No. 4, 1091-1126. 1986 2005. 2006 2006 5. 2006.. 2005. 2008 1923 20 3 29