4 4-1 1 2,000 4-2 GNP GNP: Gross National Products GDPGross Domestic Products 1 867,922 389,741 478,182 12,832 5,837 6,996 1,303 666 636 300,836 189,909 110,927 33,547 19,862 13,685 2,812 1,710 1,103 8,719 5,521 3,199 26,334 17,396 8,938 12,923 6,899 6,024 8,414 4,596 3,818 24,676 17,416 7,261 13,139 7,461 5,679 28,077 17,712 10,365 55,242 34,470 20,772 41,532 30,280 11,253 3,814 2,086 1,728 41,606 24,503 17,104 81,972 44,336 37,636 24,420 10,108 14,312 99,463 28,012 71,451 44,551 11,908 32,644 73,315 6,826 66,490 56,249 23,340 32,909 172,981 68,799 104,182 63,611 17,181 46,430 6,607 1,801 4,807 16,380 2,358 14,021 40,624 13,022 27,602 13,028 3,687 9,341 944,562 410,609 533,953 4-2-1 2000 10 1
GNP GDP GNP 1 GDP 1 GNP GDP 519 9560 513 61 12 1975 5 2475 GDP GDP GDP NDP: Net Domestic Products GDP GDI: Gross Domestic Income GDP DI: Domestic Income 286 8500 93 4765 98 6598 42 6200 41903 23599 513 0061 4-2-2 2000 GDE: Gross Domestic Expenditure Y C I G X M C 286 8500 I 2 98 4179 100 1868
G X M Y 121 5425 55 6324 49 4366 513 0061-1 7689 86 6917 34 7262 1246 4-2-3 2000 C S T C S T 286 8500 141 9179 84 2382 513 0061 4-2-4 2000 GDP NDP GDI= GDP DI GDE C I G X M GDP GDI GDE GDP GNP 10 US GNP US 1 39,840 13 25,330 2 N.A.* 26 21,500 3 38,330 54 9,460 4 35,630 84 3,330 5 35,610 105 1,940 6 N.A.* 132 1,030 7 34,280 138 890 8 30,600 145 700 9 N.A.* 165 410 10 28,910 ** 14,188 4-2-5 GDP 3
GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) 4-3 45 Fiscal Policy G YCIG Consumption Function C0.5Y50 0.5 Marginal Propensity to Consume 1 50 G Y C Y C Y C Y C 10 10 5 5 2.5 2.5 1.25 1.25 0.625 Multiplier Effect Multiplier CcYC 0 c C 0 YCIG 4
YcYC 0 IG G G 45 D Y 0? 45 4-3-1 45 S Y 4-1 Y C I G C.6Y40 60 100 (1) (2) 10 (3) (1) 5
(2) (3) 4-2 Y C I G 10 C.6Y d 40 60 100 Y d Disposable Income Y d YT 1 2 3 3 196777 1.27 2.25 2.72 196682 1.47 2.25 2.72 197584 1.35 1.95 2.18 1.72 197988 1.39 1.88 2.33 1.56 198392 1.32 1.75 2.13 1.26 198597 1.31 1.65 1.97 0.49 4-3-2 6
4-4 IS-LM 45 IS-LM IS I S Y r LM L M Y r IS YCIG YCST C S+TI+G Y r S T I 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% A B C D E 0 4-4-1 7 3 7
IS IS 4-4-2 IS G IS 4-4-3 IS 8
4-3 Y r IS C600.6Y Y D YT I30050r T0.2Y G100 C Y Y D I r T G LM L L 1 L 2 4-4-3 4-4-4 LM 9
4-4 L 1 L 2 300 1 LM L 1 0.5Y L 2 5000.4r r IS LM * r E 0 * Y Y IS 4-4-5 LM G Y r 10
r IS LM * r E 0 * Y Y 4-4-6 Ms Y r r IS LM * r E 0 * Y 4-4-7 Y 4-5 C600.6Y L 1 0.4Y Y D YT L 2 40050r I30050r M S 400 11
T0.2Y P1 G100 C Y Y D L 1 L 2 I r M S T G P (1) IS (2) LM (3) (4) G 110 (5) M S 400 420 Y r G=100 4-5 Open Economy Closed Economy 12
4-5-1 YCIG YCST XM SI TG 6 1960 43 5000 37 3049 4-5-2 GDP 13
2001 Current Account 119,465 Goods and services 38,839 Trade balance 89,865 Exports 461,765 Imports 371,901 Services -51,026 Income 86,837 Current transfers -6,210 Capital and Financial Account -75,188 Financial Account -71,254 Direct investment -31,267 Portfolio investment -93,211 Financial derivatives 2,566 Other investment 50,659 Capital Account -3,934 Changes in Reserve Assets -51,818 Errors & Omissions 7,540 4-5-3 ( ) (1) (2) 1 118 45 (3) (1) 14
4-5-4 (2) (3) 1 1816 Gold Standard System 1897 1 2 0.75g 1 1.5g1 2 1944 7 44 (1) 1 31.1 15
(2) 1952 1 360 2 1960 1971 8 (1) (2) 10 1973 2 1978 10 1 175 50 1979 1980 1985 9 G5 G5 1989 90 5 16
1991 2 1995 4 1 70 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 71 8 15 71 12 18 73 2 12 73 2 14 73 11 79 6 81 282 8 85 9 22 87 2 23 87 12 23 90 10 3 91 12 31 92 9175.50 (78.10.31) 264.00 (80.4.12) 263.65 (85.2.13) 79.75 (95.4.19) 97 7 2 120.45 (88.1.4) 98 8 98 12 01 12 91 2 4-5-5 1971 2003 4 G Y M Ca X Y r F Ms Y M Ca X Y r F 4-6 17
4-7 IMF 10 120 5 1 100 risk hedge 18
Interest Currency Stock futures options Swaps foward transactions 4-5-6 3 100 1 120 1 110 1 120 2 4 1 3 100 1 120 100 300 3 1 110 1 130 19
A 5 7 B 5 7 A 5 5 1 5 6 1 4 1 100 A 100 100 300 1 3 1 90 1 90 100 100 A 30 1 110 300 20
100 1969 1992 ERM 1997 LTCM 40 98 1. ( ) 0.6 ( ) 21
1897 1 2 1971 1 IMF 1944 ( ) 2. Y C I G C0.4Y100 100 100 (1) (2) G 10 (3) 3. 10 50 4. 70 17.5 YCIGC0.8(YT)50T0.1Y20 Y C I G T 5. C600.6Y D Y D YT I30050r T0.2Y G100 L 1 0.4Y L 2 40050r M S 400 P1 C Y Y D L 1 L 2 I r M S T G P (1) IS 22
(2) LM (3) (4) G 110 Y r (5) M S 400 420 Y r 100 6. 23