2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 5 2050 1 2 Eric Dupuy [30] 3R
2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 201608_308001 5 2016 5 9 12 The International Society for Ecological Modelling Global Conference 2016: ISEM2016 International Society for Ecological Modelling: ISEM Elsevier 2009 2011 [1] 2013 20 ISEM2016 150 Brian ISEMEcological Modelling Sven Erik Jørgensen [1] Sven2002 ISEM exergy ISEM 1SvenEcological Modelling Editor-in-Chief Brian D. Fath Guy R. Larocque Tarzan Legović Todd M. SwannackBai-Lian Li Sven
330 6 158 IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme James Syvitski Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System: CSDMS Ecosystem Dynamics Focus Research Group CSDMS 200 metabolic theory of ecology Individual-Based Model: IBM Agent-Based Model Physical Habitat Simulation Model: PHABSIM [1] Dynamic Energy Budgets: DEB AQUATOX Socio-Ecological Coupled Natural & Social Systems Urban System Modelling Sustainability Assessment Eco-Hydrology [2] NICE National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology [3] LPJWHyMe Biome-BGC SWAT QUAL2Kw RokGeM CO2SYS NICE- BGC [4] NICE [3] ISEM [1] 5 3 Sven James 1 NICE-BGC Sustainable Development Goals: SDGs [5] 2030 2030 1. 2011 11 2. hydrology Ecohydrology Wiley-Blackwell Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology Elsevier 3. Nakayama T. (2015) Integrated assessment system using process-based eco-hydrology model for adaptation strategy and effective water resources management. AGU Geophysical Monograph Series 206, pp.521-535. 4. Nakayama T. (2000) Turbulence and coherent structures across air-water interface and relationship with gas transfer. Ph.D. Dissertation of Kyoto Univ. http://jairo.nii.ac.jp/0019/00122889/ 5. UNDP (2015) Sustainable Development Goals. http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/
2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 201608_308002 2050 5 29 1 1. 34 CO 2 2014 NHK 2050https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCqVbJwmyuo 2050 34 5 200
2 5 2050 70 3 14 2. TV
5 30 3. CO 2 30 People s Climate March Climate Justice
4 4. 12 COP21 2 C 2 C1.5 C 2 C CO 2 CO 2 5 2 C
CO 2 5. 1 2 2 1 2 3
6 6. 10 1 300 300
2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 201608_308003 1 2016 4 23 6 2015 12 COP21 3 1. 2 NHK 2050 1 5 2COP21 15 2
1 WMO 2050 WMO 2050 NHK https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n CqVbJwmyuo
2 2050 4 C 2 C 2. 30 400 3 3. 3 2 C
2020 2 C 1 2 30 1 1 1 4. 4 5.
76
2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 201608_308004 2 2016 4 23 6 2015 12 COP21 3 3
1 2 1.
2. 2 C100
90 7 237
2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 201608_308005 Eric Dupuy 2009 [1] 7 TCCON [2] TCCON TCCON GGG2014 16 02.21 TCCON 103ppm 3.1% 7 TCCON 02.21 TCCONGGG2014 TCCON 1 ±30 16 TCCON 1. [4]
TANSO-FTS 2012 12 2. [9] TCCON 2015 3 Comparison of XH 2 O Retrieved from GOSAT Short-Wavelength Infrared Spectra with Observations from the TCCON Network Dupuy E., Morino I., Deutscher N. M., Yoshida Y., Uchino O., Connor B. J., De Mazière M., Griffith D. W. T., Hase F., Heikkinen P., Hillyard P. W., Iraci L. T., Kawakami S., Kivi R., Matsunaga T., Notholt J., Petri C., Podolske J. R., Pollard D. F., Rettinger M., Roehl C. M., Sherlock V., Sussmann R., Toon G. C., Velazco V. A., Warneke T., Wennberg P.O., Wunch D., Yokota T. Remote Sens. 2016, 8(5), 414; doi:10.3390/rs8050414, 2016.
2016 8 Vol.27 No.5 308 201608_308006 30 3R 3R3R 3R 89 90% 5 3R 90 35 C 2010 21% 5 170 50 1700
2010 1700 8 651995 2009 150 900 2007 900 2010 5 4 20106 8 1.5 C 0.8 C 2010 20131 41.0 C 5 40.7 C 30 C 1.1 C 1.2 C2 C 6 3R 91 IPCC 5 1 75% 1880 20120.85 C 20 95% CO 2 2081 2100 1986 20052.6 4.8 C CO 2 CO 2 400ppm 2013 2014 IPCC 5 2013 91 1880 20120.85 C 20 95% 2081 2100 1986 20052.6 4.8 C CO 2 CO 2 10 2ppm/
2014 3 7 3R 3R http://www.3r-teitanso.jp 2050