2017 6 1 The Emerging Markets Monthly... 2 CNY... 3 INR... 4 IDR... 5 KRW... 6 MYR 13 GDP... 7 PHP 13 GDP... 8 SGD... 9 THB... 10 VND... 11 RUB RUB... 12 ZAR... 13 TRY TRY... 14... 15 03-3242-7065 takahiko.sasaki@mizuho-bk.co.jp 03-3242-7065 kenta.tadaide@mizuho-bk.co.jp 03-3242-7065 yuki.ooshima@mizuho-bk.co.jp Vishnu Varathan vishnu.varathan@mizuho-cb.com Huani Zhu huani.zhu@mizuho-cb.com FX Chang Wei Liang weiliang.chang@mizuho-cb.com 44-20-7786-2505 hidetoshi.honda@mhcb.co.uk
The Emerging Markets Monthly 12017 5 5 4 PMI 52.0 50 3 6 15 6 1314 FOMC B/S 24 FOMC 5 23 B/S FRB B/S 24 6 25 OPEC OPEC 9 2018 3 22017 5 ZAR THB KRW MYR CNY MXN SGD TRY PHP RUB TWD IDR INR BRL -1.6% -0.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% KR HK IN TR PH TW US SG ID MY TH ZA MX CN BR RU -5.5% -4.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5% -1.0% -1.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 6.4% 2017 6 1 2
The Emerging Markets Monthly 3 CNY 5 CNY 6.89 6.90 6.88 CNH CNH 6.83 6.74 CNY 6.81 5 11 100 1 CNY 15 4 +10.7 3 +10.9 1.8 2016 2 +6.5 3 +7.614 +8.9 13 +9.2 2017 +9.0 24 CNY CNY CNY 4 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.40 USD/CNY CNY/JPY 14 15 16 17 18 19 5300 4800 4300 3800 3300 6.30 6.20 USD/CNY CNY/JPY 20 2800 6.10 21 2300 2017 6 1 3
The Emerging Markets Monthly INR 5 INR 65 INR FOMC 64 5 31 2017 13 GDP +6.12016 1012 +7.0 +7.3 1012 +11.12 +1.72.1 5 GDP 13 4 PMI 52.5 3 4 PMI 50.2 3 51.5 / 50 4 +17.4 3 +8.2 2015 10 4 CPI+3.03 +3.9+3.8 CPI 0.6 CPI+4.43 +5.12015 2 CPI 2015 +4.55.0 6 FOMC INR RBI INR IMD 5 30 INR 5 70 USD/INR INR/JPY 1.35 6 SENSEX30 32000 68 1.45 30000 SENSEX30 1.55 66 1.65 28000 64 1.75 26000 62 USD/INR INR/JPY 60 1.85 1.95 2.05 24000 22000 2017 6 1 4
The Emerging Markets Monthly 7 15000 USD/IDR IDR 5 IDR 1329013420 13420 19 13290 5 5 13 GDP +5.0 2016 1012 +4.9 1012 BI 18 6 BI 19 BB BBB 4 57.96 42.04 蔑 2 10 6 IDR IDR/JPY 0.74 8 5800 14500 0.78 5500 14000 0.82 5200 13500 0.86 4900 13000 0.90 4600 12500 USD/IDR IDR/JPY 12000 0.94 0.98 4300 4000 2017 6 1 5
The Emerging Markets Monthly KRW 5 KRW 9 11261142 9 1110 1120 10.2 GDP +0.6 6 7 4 KOSPI 2017 14 +57 +26 5 +19 29 KRW 151 KRW 9 10 1280 USD/KRW KRW/JPY 8.5 2400 1240 9.0 2300 1200 9.5 2200 1160 10.0 2100 1120 10.5 2000 1080 USD/KRW KRW/JPY 11.0 1900 1040 11.5 1800 2017 6 1 6
The Emerging Markets Monthly MYR 13 GDP 5 MYR 6 4.34 13 GDP 4.26 4.28 5 19 13 GDP +5.6 2016 1012 +3.52015 13 BNM BNM 12 BNM 3 60 1MDB 1MDB MDB 6 MYR MYR 11 4.70 USD/MYR MYR/JPY 22 12FTSE KLCI 1850 4.50 24 1800 FTSEKLCI 4.30 26 1750 4.10 3.90 28 30 1700 3.70 32 1650 3.50 USD/MYR MYR/JPY 34 1600 3.30 36 1550 2017 6 1 7
The Emerging Markets Monthly PHP 13 GDP 5 PHP 49.50 49.80 2017 13 GDP +6.4 2016 1012 +6.6 2015 79 13 IT BSP 11 BSP 8 7 2 12 BSP 堵 23 60 FRB 6 PHP 13 51 USD/PHP PHP/JPY 2.0 14 8200 50 2.1 49 2.2 7800 48 47 46 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 7400 7000 45 44 USD/PHP PHP/JPY 2.7 2.8 6600 43 2.9 6200 2017 6 1 8
The Emerging Markets Monthly SGD 5 SGD 1.3970 1.41 1.38 1.38 5 17 4 0.7 3 +16.52016 12 3 +17.739.93 +39.+6.6 5 13 2012 4 +11.9 3 +20.4 25 13 GDP+2.7 +2.52016 1012 MAS CPI CPI 4 +1.7+1.02.0 SGD NEER SGD NEER GDP +1.03.010 MAS SGD SGD 15 1.48 USD/SGD SGD/JPY 1.45 71 75 16 ST 3600 3400 1.42 79 3200 1.39 83 3000 1.36 87 2800 1.33 USD/SGD SGD/JPY 1.30 91 95 2600 ST 2400 2017 6 1 9
The Emerging Markets Monthly 17 38 37 36 35 USD/THB THB 5 THB 34.80 34.20 24 BOT 34 5 15 13 GDP +3.3 2016 1012 +3.0 10 BOT 24 1.50% 3 29 THB THB 29 BOT BOT THB THB 4 CPI +0.4 3 +0.8+1 4BOT 13 GDP 1012 BOT 22 22 2014 3 2018 6 THB THB/JPY 2.8 3.0 3.2 18 SET 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 SET 34 33 32 USD/THB THB/JPY 3.4 3.6 1400 1350 1300 1250 31 3.8 1200 2017 6 1 10
The Emerging Markets Monthly 19 23200 22800 USD/VND VND 5 VND 22700 VND 22600 22700 22700 22700 22700 2016 +18 2017 5 29 5 8 26 14 99 6 90 4 1 5 +39.2 15 +56 VND 15 +10.2 3 VND FRB VND VND/JPY 0.43 0.45 0.47 20 760 720 22400 22000 21600 USD/VND VND/JPY 21200 0.49 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.61 680 640 600 560 520 2017 6 1 11
The Emerging Markets Monthly RUB RUB 5 RUB USD 3 16 18 RUB 煽 5 5 25 OPEC OPEC 9 RUB 4 5 RUB 85 2 1131 3 705 4 699 RUB RUB 5 4 CPI 18 22 4 RUB RUB OPEC 5 煽 50 / RUB 40 / RUB 21 RUB 85 USD/RUB RUB/JPY 1.2 22 RTS 1200 80 75 70 65 60 55 USD/RUB 50 RUB/JPY 45 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 1100 RTS 1000 900 800 700 600 2017 6 1 12
The Emerging Markets Monthly ZAR 5 ZAR 4 PMI4 2 4 4 3 11 3 17 4 3 31 3 ZAR 3 13 GDP ZAR 7 18 SARB 4 4 CPI24 4 PPI25 25 ANC2628 ZAR 29 ZAR 6 2 13 GDP6 6 ANC ZAR ANC 23 18.0 USD/ZAR ZAR/JPY 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 USD/ZAR 11.0 ZAR/JPY 10.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 24 FTSE/JSE 55000 53000 51000 49000 FTSE/JSE 47000 2017 6 1 13
The Emerging Markets Monthly TRY TRY 5 TRY USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR EUR 22 3 4 CPI +11.87 CBRT TRY TRY CPI 4 4 16 21 4 AKP TRY TRY TRY TRY 4 1 CBRT 5 2 USD/TRY USD TRY TRY 25 26 100 4.0 USD/TRY TRY/JPY 28 102000 3.8 3.6 USD/TRY TRY/JPY 32 98000 94000 100 3.4 36 90000 3.2 40 86000 3.0 82000 2.8 44 78000 2.6 48 74000 2.4 70000 2017 6 1 14
The Emerging Markets Monthly 21 2017 15 2017 2018 SPOT 6 9 12 CNY) 6.8112 6.9640 6.8180 6.90 6.95 7.00 7.10 7.10 HKD) 7.7531 7.7950 7.7922 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.76 INR) 63.931 68.388 64.508 65.5 65.0 64.0 64.5 64.0 IDR) 13236 13496 13323 13300 13380 13000 12850 12700 KRW) 1110.52 1211.78 1119.65 1140 1130 1120 1110 1100 MYR) 4.2675 4.5002 4.2813 4.28 4.33 4.18 4.08 4.05 PHP) 49.264 50.467 49.819 50.0 49.7 49.0 48.5 48.1 SGD) 1.3808 1.4547 1.3832 1.40 1.41 1.38 1.37 1.36 TWD) 29.929 32.447 30.124 30.30 30.10 29.90 29.70 29.50 THB) 33.95 36.01 34.05 34.3 34.1 34.0 33.8 34.0 VND) 22528 22846 22715 22880 22750 22650 22650 22400 RUB) 55.7038 61.7190 56.5960 59.00 60.00 62.00 62.00 60.00 ZAR) 12.3126 13.9810 13.0973 13.50 14.40 14.00 13.50 13.00 TRY) 3.5143 3.9415 3.5285 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.90 3.80 BRL) 3.0413 3.4109 3.2270 3.30 3.36 3.40 3.43 3.45 MXN) 18.3419 22.0385 18.6215 21.00 20.50 20.20 20.00 20.00 CNY) 15.711 17.031 16.233 15.94 15.54 15.00 14.65 14.65 HKD) 13.911 15.291 14.222 14.18 13.92 13.53 13.40 13.40 INR) 1.651 1.783 1.718 1.68 1.66 1.64 1.61 1.63 100IDR) 0.815 0.880 0.832 0.827 0.807 0.808 0.809 0.819 100KRW) 9.461 10.201 9.897 9.65 9.56 9.38 9.37 9.45 MYR) 24.550 26.357 25.897 25.70 24.94 25.12 25.49 25.68 PHP) 2.181 2.377 2.224 2.20 2.17 2.14 2.14 2.16 SGD) 77.55 81.66 80.12 78.57 76.60 76.09 75.91 76.47 TWD) 3.563 3.784 3.679 3.63 3.59 3.51 3.50 3.53 THB) 3.150 3.302 3.255 3.21 3.17 3.09 3.08 3.06 100VND) 0.4756 0.5213 0.4880 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 RUB) 1.860 2.024 1.958 1.86 1.80 1.69 1.68 1.73 ZAR) 7.897 8.978 8.467 8.15 7.50 7.50 7.70 8.00 TRY) 28.620 33.476 31.378 30.56 29.19 27.63 26.67 27.37 BRL) 32.573 37.450 34.341 33.33 32.14 30.88 30.32 30.14 MXN) 5.164 6.104 5.951 5.24 5.27 5.20 5.20 5.20 1. 2017 5 31 SPOT 6 1 7 2. 3. 4. 5 31 2017 6 1 15
The Emerging Markets Monthly 22 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.5 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 1.3 1.2 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.7 4.9 5.0 4.7 5.1-1.1-0.7-1.8-1.8 4.8 5.0 5.5 5.8 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.1-2.1-1.8-2.0-2.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.0 7.0 7.3 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.1 5.0 5.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.2 6.3 6.9 6.2 6.6 1.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 2.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.8-0.5-0.5 1.2 2.1 19.8 19.0 19.5 19.5 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.7-0.9 0.2 2.0 2.0 8.2 11.3 8.2 7.5 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.8 0.6 2.7 4.6 4.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 GDP 2015 CEIC 23 2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 7 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 175.00 2.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 2016 8 19 B 7 2017 6 1 16