2016 Economic Impacts on Kumamoto-shi Tourism Industry by Kumamoto Earthquake Mingji Cui (Institute of Disaster Mitigation for Urban Cultural Heritage, Ritsumeikan University abstruct The Kumamoto Earthquakes struck Kumamoto Prefecture in April 2016, which are including two large earthquakes: a foreshock earthquake with a magnitude 6.2, epicenter depth 11km at 21:26 JST on April 14 and a mainshock earthquake with a magnitude 7.0, epicenter depth 10km at 01:25 JST on April 16. Kumamoto area suffered serious damage by the two earthquakes and it caused at least 50 victims and 3,000 injured people. In the earthquakes, the Kumamoto Castle which is the symbol of Kumamoto Prefecture has also heavily collapsed and Kumamoto City Zoological and Botanical Gardens damaged by quake. All these kinds of damage caused decreasing of tourist visiting to Kumamoto, and serious economic impacts on tourism industry. The government plans to support revival of tourism and published online special discount coupons for traveling Kyushu area, which is called as Kyushu Fokko-wari in Japanese. Considering such damage and recovery situation, this study aims to evaluate economic damage of tourism industry. It focuses on the two principle tourist sites in Kumamoto City: Kumamoto Castel and Kumamoto City Zoological and Botanical Gardens, which are also main disaster struck sites of Kumamoto City, reports the damage of tourism industry in Kumamoto-shi and evaluates the economic loss of tourism industry and impacts to regional economy using Input-Output analysis. 1. 2008 [1] 2011 [2] 1986 1995 2009 2011 [3][4] 39
2016 2016 1 2. 2.1. 2016 4 14 21 26 6.5 7 11km 2 2016 4 16 01 25 7.3 12km 7 14 16 2016 12 14 161 2,620 8,360 32,261 [5] 1.83.8 0.50.8 [6] 2.2 1 6 1 [7] 40
2016 2 ( 2016 5 23 2 20 600 3 2019 [8] 1 [9] 2.3 2 5 [10] 2015 4 40.4% 5 35.1%6 25.3%7 10.5% 4 8.8 5 90.8% 6 74.6%7 50.0% 8 62.2% 2016 4 18 200,000.0 150,000.0 100,000.0 50,000.0 0.0 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2015 2016 2015 2016 2 [10] 3 [10] 41
2016 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 2015 2016 2015 2016 4 [10] 5 [10] 1,500 [11] 4 42.5%5 29.7%6 26.7%7 10.3% 4 49.2% 5 69.6%7 2015 3. 0418 0514 [12] [13] ARMI 3.1. [1] 42
2016 7,000,000 6,000,000 2008 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2004 2010 2011 0 6 [14] 3.2. 6 20 1990 [14] 2008 467 572 2010 2011 2015 2015 3.3 2 5 7 43
2016 275,434 258,900 209,016 177,739 176,780 125,553 123,227 110,913 54,605 51,924 40,601 32,846 32,713 30,164 725,851 780,800 949,935 1,602,824 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 7 2015 [14] [15] 2 5 80% 13 4. 4.1. 280 2015 2009 2014 2015 2010 44
2016 2009 70.7%2015 8 2016 70.7% 24.6% 3 3 3 402.2 2015 213.2 189.0 1 1 74.1 9 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2009 2010 8 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 5,607,000 4,671,782 4,517,701 3,652,973 9 45
2016 4.2. (1) (3) C = a N, (1) C = C C (2) a :1 N : 4.3. 2011 [16] F C = F (3) 1 P 1 = I (I MA 1 (I M) F (4) 1 1 M () I () A () 1 2 2 (5) P 2 = δ 1 l c I (i M)A ( 1)(I M) (5) 46
2016 1 372 588.0 960.0 8.7 37.3 46.0 380.7 625.3 1,006.0 P 2 1 2 l A P = δ 1 + δ 2 (6) 1 2 4.4. 372 588 8.7 37.3 1,006 1 5. 1,006 380.7 625.3 600 2 2016 7 40% 70% 2016 7 9 1 2016 10 12 2 180 [17] CM 3 5 [18] 47
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