要約 1970 2 1970 1 2016 28 1 11 25 The Demographic Transition of Japan and the Future of Regional Society Toshihiko Hara Abstract Although the aging and decreasing population is a historical consequence of demographic transition, the real nature of the present crisis consists of the below-replacement fertility rate and the migration of younger members of society seeking higher education and better employment opportunities in large cities. Historical observation shows that an expanding lifespan and survival rates at reproductive age could minimize the risk of childbearing; but even if the theoretical fertility rate met the reproductive level, women s views may remain unchanged. This made a timing shift that began in the second half of the 1970s and increased the age of marriage and childbearing, which escalated to the emergence of below-replacement fertility. Prefectural data for 2010 show a negative correlation between the percentage of those pursuing higher education at age 18 and age-specific marriage also birth rates at age 20 24, where most women are still in higher education or are newly graduated. In contrast, they indicate a positive correlation at age 30 34 and older, where they try to catch up on delayed marriage and childbearing. Thus the critical condition for the recovery of replacement fertility is to change the cost/benefit balance of childbearing toward a plus value in regional communities. Key words: demographic transition, family reproduction strategy, regional revitalization School of Design, Sapporo City University, 1 Geijutsu-no-mori, Minami-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 005 0864, Japan E-mail: t.hara@scu.ac.jp 2016, Japanese Journal of Family Sociology, 28 1 11 25 11
I. Kaufmann 2005 2011 1970 44.3 42.8 1891/1898 1950 57.7 61.0 2006 2010 79.5 86.3 2060 84.2 90.9 2012a 65 30 15 65 15 64 100 80 1 1 2 1925 5.10 1 3 1.65 1950 3.65 1.50 1975 1.90 0.907 2012b 2010 1.39 0.669 2060 1.35 0.652 2.08, 1.00 70 2013 1.43, 0.69 40 100 4 2015 2015 1, 1921/1925 2005 2006 2010 2012b 2015 2060 2012a 1 12
5 II. 6 45 50 50 2 2 4 100 1970 2 2 2 70 1.5 7 3 1911 1915 4 2 1956 1960 1 3 NRR 1 1 50 105 0.4878 4 1921/1925 5 1926/1930 6 1935 1936 50 1925 1930 1940 50 24 12 2006 1925 2010 2012b 2 13
1890 1960 1965 1970 18 2006 67 2055 18 12 315 1 2 3 4 3 2 1970 1 8 1 III. 1. 2014 14
20 39 2040 2010 5 3 9 2. 1 20 24 0.01 30 34 35 39 30 34 35 39 30 2010 30 3. 2005 30 30 1 2010 15 49 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.019 0.004 0.033 0.061 0.029 0.010 0.003 0.001 0.020 0.003 0.026 0.062 0.032 0.011 0.003 0.001 0.018 0.004 0.035 0.061 0.027 0.009 0.002 0.001 0.044 0.004 0.037 0.103 0.084 0.043 0.015 0.005 0.044 0.003 0.030 0.098 0.086 0.043 0.014 0.005 0.044 0.004 0.040 0.105 0.084 0.043 0.015 0.005 0.041 0.005 0.037 0.089 0.096 0.047 0.008 0.000 0.039 0.004 0.026 0.073 0.092 0.049 0.009 0.000 0.042 0.005 0.041 0.096 0.098 0.046 0.008 0.000 2010 2010 15
1 1 2010 2010 4 2008, 2009 2010 5 10 4 25 29 0.657 35 39 0.785 40 44 0.283 35 39 5 1.15, 0.031 1.88, 0.479 40 4. U I 2010 11 5 16
35 39 16.714, 0.6178 r 0.786 0.0202 r 0.142 2010 2010 5 35 39 2010 20 24 0.60, 0.54 0.30 6 7 25 29 0.23, 0.20 0.12 30 34 0.40, 0.23 0.09 40 44 0.36 6 2010 18 15 19 2 20 24 25 29 8 5. 3 0.698 0.001 30 SMAM 29.4 29.8 50 9.0 14.0 1.47 1.27 17
5 5 2010 2010 2010 6 2010 20 24 61.654, 0.29 r 0.54 47.776, 0.0922 r 0.30 7 20 24 2010 0.20, 1.41 0.06, 0.14 18
2 2010 1 2010 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.30 0.57 0.58 0.71 0.44 0.07 0.24 0.35 0.53 0.09 0.47 0.52 0.45 0.44 0.15 0.26 0.65 0.70 0.38 0.03 0.16 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.30 0.60 0.23 0.40 0.28 0.04 0.25 0.35 0.54 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.36 0.29 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.15 0.18 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.24 0.74 0.48 0.16 0.11 0.07 0.11 0.36 0.55 0.34 0.07 0.56 0.64 0.31 0.25 0.71 0.37 0.33 0.12 0.00 0.05 2 2010 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.18 0.37 0.49 0.56 0.24 0.08 0.20 0.49 0.47 0.09 0.30 0.43 0.36 0.46 0.21 0.38 0.48 0.61 0.26 0.08 0.24 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.18 0.40 0.20 0.40 0.23 0.13 0.25 0.49 0.49 0.11 0.03 0.21 0.36 0.42 0.21 0.41 0.08 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 0.16 0.57 0.43 0.08 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.54 0.60 0.36 0.01 0.49 0.43 0.13 0.12 0.57 0.40 0.22 0.05 0.03 0.01 2010 2010 2010 0.06 2010 4 3.7 8.7 8.1 4 30 34 35 39 IV. 1. 20 39 50 19
2010 2010 2010 8 2010 3 SMAM 0.698 29.5 10.4 1.41 0.698 29.8 14.0 1.27 0.698 29.4 9.0 1.47 0.001 0.39 5.0 0.20 5 15 49 SMAM: singulate mean age at marriage 5 50 2010 2010 4 15 49 15 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 1,071,229 13,495 110,956 306,910 384,385 220,101 34,609 773 1,111,319 13,958 125,029 332,445 392,035 214,778 32,353 720 40,090 463 14,073 25,535 7,650 5,323 2,256 53 984,523 12,176 79,772 252,156 367,358 232,317 39,838 906 86,706 1,319 31,184 54,754 17,027 12,216 5,229 133 3.7 3.4 12.7 8.3 2.0 2.4 6.5 6.8 8.1 9.8 28.1 17.8 4.4 5.6 15.1 17.2 5 5 15 49 2010 2010 2010 20
1 2014: 22 24 20 39 95 1 30 50 25 0.5 0.5 12.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3 10 1 12 20 39 2.08 25 39 1 30 3 10 1 2010 1.47 2.08 70.7 0.7 30 0.5 0.7 0.35 3 1 65 50 2008 2. 1 2 1 1980 21
2 2 2010 1.47 1.27 3 U I 20 39 3 1 10 2 TFR: Total Fertility Rate 15 49 age-specific birth rate CTFR: Cohort Total Fertility Rate 34 PTFR: Period Total Fertility Rate 3 0 22
50 105 100 2.07 NRR: Net Reproduction Rate 0.70 70 1 30 30 4 2005 1.26 2014 1.43 30 40 20 5 Kaufmann 2005=2011; Hara 2014 6 well-being 2002: 4 2011 7 1970 1977 50 1 2 3 4 1890 1901 1905 5 1928 1932 2.20 1965 1.93 1.84 3 1890 1.70 1901 1905 2.77 1928 1932 1.96 1965 1.63 1.41 8 14 2012c, d 18 34 6.8 8 4.1 35 45 49 45.1 0 20 7 1977 23
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