2019 8 1 1

2019 8 1 2

612 7 IMF 1 2019 External Sector ReportESR IMF 20196 10.0 5.0 0.0 1 ESR ESR -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0 MXN JPY SEK GBP NOK CAD AUD EUR DKK KRW NZD CHF USD BIS - 2018 REER 612 the 2018 average REER to be somewhat overvalued, in the 6 to 12 percent range 612 9 The EBA REER index model 8the EBA REER level model 11.9the External Sustainability Approach 10.3 REER 20 6 7 2018 REER 1.53 ESR 5 REER Japan-specific factors that affect the REER The EBA REER index model the EBA Level models 1722IMF REER 20 6 17 a large degree of heterogeneity REER 818 2019 8 1 3

0+10 7 IMF ECB 2 1 GDP 2 12 6 5 8 6 ESFExchange Stabilization Fund 7 18 ECB EU 7 4 2 FRB 2019 8 1 4

7 12 BOE EU 0.75 0.25 BOE 2017 2 2016 8 ECB FRB 1 4.35 2019/1/4 0bp 0bp 5.75 2019/6/6 75bp +50bp 5.75 2019/7/18 25bp +175bp 7 1.50 2019/7/18 25bp +25bp 3.00 2019/7/9 25bp +25bp 4.50 2019/6/20 25bp +175bp 1.75 2019/6/26 0bp +25bp 6.25 2018/9/30 0bp 0bp 1.00 2019/7/2 50bp 0bp 1.50 2019/6/26 25bp 0bp 1 7.25 2019/7/26 50bp +50bp 6.75 2019/7/18 25bp 0bp 19.75 2019/7/25 425bp +1600bp SELIC 6.50 2019/6/19 0bp 50bp 8.25 2019/6/27 0bp +100bp 2019 8 1 5

QUICK 7 8 10 4614 60 REER ECB 7 2930 2020 2019 8 1 6

if there is a greater possibility GDP 2 GDP GDP 2019 GDP +0.7 CPI+1.04 0.1 2020 CPI 0.1 CPI FRB 10 201718 FRB ECB 201718 9 FRB ECB 2019 8 1 7

9 2 1 FOMC FF 2.252.50 2.002.25FRB 10 9 2 8 1 FRB It is intended to insure against downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty 2 FRB Mid-Cycle Adjustment NY 333.75 10 2 1.801.96 1.87 FOMC 25bps a hawkish rate cut 2019 8 1 8

1 100 FOMC 1 100 2019 7 30 4 GDP 2018 CPIPCE 2015 FF 2018 4 3 NY 1012 20 FOMC NY / 1 2 1 2 1 / 5 2019 8 1 9

1 49 7 NY FRB 6 FRB 2020 11 FRB / FRB FRB FRB 遡 1998 2019 8 1 10

1 12 2020 1 ECB 7 9 10 31 辿 2019 8 1 11

FRB FRB ECB 5 100 / 6 1 /7.0 7.02015 8 ECB 9 1998 23 1 2019 8 1 12

7 ECB MRO 0.00 0.250.40 0.65 4 3 ECB didn t discuss them at all, really In this context, we have tasked the relevant Eurosystem Committees with examining options, including ways to reinforce our forward guidance on policy rates, mitigating measures, such as the design of a tiered system for reserve remuneration, and options for the size and composition of potential new net asset purchases 36912 1 捗 ECB 1 9 1 2014 6 5 TLTROtargeted longer-term refinancing operationsabs SMP 5 2019 8 1 13

APP 33 ECB 1 if the medium-term inflation outlook continues to fall short of our aim, the Governing Council is determined to act, in line with its commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim 1 new to our language ECB below, but close to, 2% over the medium term 22 ECB 2 2 ECB 5 5 5 5 BEI ECB ECB 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 ECB SPF Survey of 1 Professional Forecasters 0.5 1 2 5 0 sturdy 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 5 5 ECB599Q2-Q499Q1 00Q2-Q400Q1 2019 8 1 14

SPF FRB ECB 3 at least through the summer of 2019 at least through the end of 2019 9 12 6 at least through the first half of 20202020 1 2020 We now expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020 2018 APP ECB 6 1 You said that interest rates will remain at their current levels through the first half of next year, but the market is actually pricing for the next interest rate move to be a cut ECB APP APP2.6 4 QE 2014 APP 56 1100 APP APP APP ECB 2019 8 1 15

APP ECB 3 the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the operation of automatic stabilisers are providing support to economic activity I think fiscal policy was important, is important, will be even more important if the economic situation deteriorates everywhere IMF ECB IMF IMF ECB ECB IMF 2ECB IMF IMF ECB IMF IMF ECB 噂 ECB 7 2 EU EU ECB IMF 2019 10 31 2 ECB : 2019 8 1 16

1999 ECB EU EU 2019 11 31 EU 4 ECB 噂 ECB 3 ECB ECB 3 ECB 2 4 1 6 2 33 1 ECB 3 ECB SSM2014 11 SSM 1 1 ECB SSM ECB 2 ECB 2019 12 31 2 2011 11 3 2012 ECB ECB 2019 8 1 17

ECB ECB ECB 6 1 ECB ECB ECB 4 ECB FRB ECB ECB 1 2011 6 IMF 6 FRB 0.40 4.7 2019 8 1 18

EU ECB 36 15 7 2 USTR EU 40 EU 4 12 210 EU WTO 5 28 EU 3 28 WTO EU EU 2004 15 2015 8 4 4 2019 4 18 2019 8 1 19

G20 5 EU 3 EU 0.40 EU SGP 3 EU HICP/ PPP 1.20 1.20 6 / 1.20 0.40 / PPP 5 2019 7 1 G20 6 1.20 2019 8 1 20

1 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% GDP -4.0% -6.0% GDP 3-8.0% 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 SGP Eurostat IS SGP 2019 8 1 21