6.5.............................. 18 6.6...... 19 6.7......................... 21 6.7.1......... 21 6.7.2.................. 22 7 23 8 26 8.1..........



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CGE Part 12 * Date: 2016/04/03, Verson 1.0.0 1 2 2 2 3 Armngton 4 3.1 Armngton.................................. 4 3.2 Armngton................................ 5 3.3.......................................... 6 3.3.1.................................. 6 3.3.2 Armngton........................... 6 4 6 5 7 5.1 Armngton..................................... 7 5.2............................... 8 5.3........................................... 10 5.3.1............................. 10 5.3.2...................................... 10 5.3.3...................................... 11 5.3.4................................ 11 5.3.5............................. 11 5.3.6................................... 12 5.4.................................... 12 6 15 6.1.............................. 15 6.2.................................. 16 6.3 p EW p MW............................. 17 6.4......................................... 18 * : http://shrotakeda.org/ja/research-ja/cge-howto.html 1

6.5.............................. 18 6.6...... 19 6.7......................... 21 6.7.1......... 21 6.7.2.................. 22 7 23 8 26 8.1.................................... 26 8.2.......................... 28 8.3.................................... 29 8.4............................... 31 8.5.................. 32 8.6.......................................... 34 9 34 10 35 1 ˆ autarky or closed economy ˆ ˆ CGE ˆ Part 12 CGE ˆ CGE Part 12 2 ˆ 2

ˆ EU FTA CGE GTAP (Hertel, 1999) MIT EPPA (Paltsev et al., 2005) OECD ENV-Lnkages (Burnaux et al., 2008) Takeda et al. (2013) Takeda et al. (2012) Takeda et al. (2011) Takeda (2010) CGE 1 ˆ A1 ˆ A2 A1 A2 A2 A2 A1 A2 A2 CGE ˆ ˆ 1 (2007) 3

Part 12 6.4 3 Armngton 3.1 Armngton Cross-Haulng 1 Part 7 2005 2 CGE 1) 2) CGE 1 CGE 2 Armngton (1969) Armngton Armngton CGE CGE Armngton 2 4

3.2 Armngton 1: 2005 100 62, 464 2, 092, 569 149, 278 0 8, 821, 991 959, 308 125 1, 517, 190 109, 141 0 1, 985, 329 151, 001 33, 967 125, 595 10, 978 809, 040 2, 384, 860 132, 286 41, 482 70, 604 3, 693 316 10, 099 505 25, 371 15, 131 883 2, 772, 680 897, 012 52, 492 52, 597, 060 38, 951, 417 3, 195, 951 30, 339 1, 079 0 705 183 0 5, 669, 407 3, 667, 297 0 11, 725, 705 7, 168, 697 8, 575 73, 768, 661 67, 709, 053 4, 774, 091 : 2005 3.2 Armngton Armngton CES q AM q AD CES q A [ q A = α AD ( ) q AD σ 1 σ + α AM ( q AM ] σ ) σ 1 σ 1 σ Armngton Armngton aggregaton 3 σ Armngton σ q A (1) q A = q AD + q AM Armngton σ < (1) Armngton (1) q A q AM q AD Armngton 3 Armngton (2007) 5

3.3 3.3 3.3.1 Armngton 1) 2) Armngton Part 12 3.3.2 Armngton Armngton Armngton Part 12 Armngton 4 Part 10 Part 2 c = j (α x j) σ (p j ) 1 σ + (α v ) σ (p va ) 1 σ 1 1 σ {c } (2) c va = f (β v f) σv [ (1 + t F f )p F f ] 1 σ v 1 1 σ v {c va } (3) c u = j 1 (γ j ) [ 1 σ σc (1 + t C ] c 1 σ c j )p j {c u } (4) c p = 0 {y } (5) c va p va = 0 {v a } (6) c u p u = 0 {u} (7) 6

[ α x ] a x j c σ j = {a x p j [ α a v v = c [ p va j} (8) ] σ {a v } (9) β v f a F f = (1 + t F f )pf f cva [ a u γ c u ] σ c = (1 + t C )p ] σ v {a F f} (10) {a u } (11) y = j a x jy j + a u u {p } (12) v a = a v y v f = {p va } (13) a F fv a {p F f } (14) u = m p u {p u } (15) m = f p F f v f + t C p d +,f t F fp F f v f {m} (16) 5 5.1 Armngton Armngton q AM CES Armngton q A q AD q A = f A (q AD, q AM ) = [ α AD ( q AD ) σdm 1 σ DM + α AM ( q AM ] σdm ) σ DM 1 σ DM 1 σ DM Armngton Armngton CES c A mn a AD,a AM [ p D a AD + p M a AM f A (a AD, a AM ) = 1 ] 7

5.2 c A Armngton 1 Shephard a M a D a AM = ca p M a AD = ca p D f A (1) c A aam a AD [ c A = a AD = a AM = (α AD [ α AD c A p D [ α AM c A p M ) σdm (p D ) 1 σdm ] σ DM ] σ DM + (α AM ) σdm (p M ) 1 σdm ] 1 1 σ DM {c A } {a AD } {a AM } Armngton p A Armngton π A π A = (p A c A )q A {π A } Armngton q A π A q A = 0 c A p A = 0 {q A } Armngton 5.2 Armngton CGE Part 12 y y E yd y = y E + y D (17) 1 1 1 1 (17) (17) CET constant elastcty of transformaton y = g S (y E, y D ) = [ δ ES (y E ) η DE +1 η DE + δ DS (y D ) ] ηde η DE +1 η DE +1 η DE (18) 8

5.2 δ ES δ DS η DE η DE { 1, + } CES elastcty of transformaton (17) 0 4 国 内 向 供 給 B: 完 全 代 替 C: 代 替 なし A: 不 完 全 な 代 替 輸 出 向 供 給 1: CET CET y A (0, ) B C 0 η DE = η DE = 0 Armngton CET r y r y max a ES,a DS [ p E a ES + p D a DS g S (a ES, a DS ) = 1 ] p E pd 4 CET 9

5.3 Shephard a ES a DS a ES = ry p E {a ES } (19) a DS = ry p D {a DS } (20) a ES y a DS y CET (18) Part A-1 [ r y = (δ ES ) ηde (p E ) 1+ηDE + (δ DS [ p a ES E = δ ES r y [ p a DS D = δ DS r y ] η DE ] η DE ) ηde (p D ) 1+ηDE ] 1 1+η DE (21) (22) (23) 5.3 5.3.1 p EW / p EX p E p E /p EX = p EW p MW p M p M = p EX p MW p EX 6.2 5.3.2 Armngton Armngton Armngton x M x M = a AM q A = [ α AM c A (1+ M )p M ] σ DM q A (24) t M (1 + t M )p M 10

5.3 5.3.3 x E x E [ p = a ES E y = δ ES r y ] η DE y (25) 5.3.4 (12) p y = j a x jy j + a u u (25) a DS y Armngton a AD q A p D a DS y = a AD q A {p D } Armngton Armngton j a x j y j a u u Armngton q A = j a x jy j + a u u {p A } Armngton p A 5.3.5 5 ˆ A1 ˆ A2 5 11

5.4 A1 6.7.1 p EW x E pmw x M TS TS = p EW x E p MW x M A1 TS p EX p EW x E p EX p MW x M = TS {p EX } 5.3.6 > (16) m = f p F f v f + t C p A d +,f t F fp F f v f + t M p M x M m D = m p EX TS m D p EX TS p EX TS TS < 0 5.4 (29) Armngton Armngton p A c = j (α x j) σ (p A j ) 1 σ + (α v ) σ (p va ) 1 σ 1 1 σ {c } (26) c va = f (β v f) σv [ (1 + t F f )p F f ] 1 σ v 1 1 σ v {c va } (27) 12

5.4 c u = j (γ j ) σc [ (1 + t C j )p A j ] 1 σ c 1 1 σ c {c u } (28) [ c A = (α AD r y = [ ) σdm (p D ) 1 σdm + (α AM ) σdm ([1 + t M ]p M ) 1 σdm ] 1 1 σ DM {c A } (29) (δ ES ) ηde (p E ) 1+ηDE + (δ DS ) ηde (p D ) 1+ηDE ] 1 1+η DE {r y } (30) p EW p MW x E x M p E = p EX p EW {x E } (31) p EX p MW = p M {x M } (32) 0 Armngton c r y = 0 {y } (33) c va p va = 0 {v a } (34) c u p u = 0 {u} (35) c A p A = 0 {q A } (36) (41) (42) Armngton a x j = [ α x j c p A j [ α a v v = c a F f = [ p va ] σ {a x j} (37) ] σ {a v } (38) β v f (1 + t F f )pf f cva [ a u γ c u = (1 + t C )pa [ α AD c A a AD = p D ] σ c ] σ DM [ a AM α AM c A = (1 + t M )p M ] σ v ] σ DM {a F f} (39) {a u } (40) {a AD } (41) {a AM } (42) 13

5.4 [ p a ES E = δ ES r y [ p a DS D = δ DS r y ] η DE ] η DE {a ES } (43) {a DS } (44) Armngton a DS y = a AD q A {p D } (45) q A = j v a = a v y v f = a x jy j + a u u {p A } (46) {p va } (47) a F fv a {p F f } (48) u = md p u {p u } (49) (49) m D a ES y x E x M Armngton a AM q A a ES y = x E {p E } (50) x M = a AM q A {p M } (51) 5.3.5 p EW x E p MW x M = TS {p EX } (52) m = f p F f v f + t C p A d +,f t F fp F f v f + t M p M x M {m} (53) m D = m p EX TS {m D } (54) (26) (54) {c } {c va } {c u } {c A } {r y } {pe } {pm } {y } {v a} {u} {qa } {ax j } {av } {af f } {au } {aad } {a AM } {a ES } {a DS } {p D } {pa } {pva } {p F f } {pu } {y E} {qam } {p EX } {m} {m D } 14

6 5 CGE 6.1 MCP MCP (31) (32) p E pm p E pm x E xm (31) p E = p EW p EX p E p E p EW p EW p EX (31) 0 (33) (36) 0 6 (31) (33) (36) (31) (32) p EX p MW 0 = p M (31) (32) x E xm x E xm (50) (51) p E pm 6 0 15

6.2 a ES y = x E x E p E (51) x M = a AM q A Armngton p M (31) (32) x E xm (50) (51) p E pm GAMS (31) (32) p E pm (50) (51) x E xm 6.2 (52) TS p EX (52) (52) (52) (52) p EW pew x E p MW pmw x M TS 5.3.6 TS pew x E pmw x M + TS (52) (52) 1 (52) 16

6.3 p EW p MW (52) 6.3 p EW p MW (52) p EW p MW p EW p MW p EW p MW a E (31) (32) (52) = p EW a M = p MW p E = a E p EX {x E } a M p EX = p M {x M } a E x E a M x M = TS {p EX } p EW p MW 7 0 p E p M p EX p E = λp E p M = λp M p EX = λp EX p E pm p EX 0 ˆ p EW p MW ˆ 7 (2004) p ε 17

6.4 6.4 = (55) 2 2 1 2 8 CGE (55) 9 (31) (32) p E p M j = pew p MW j, j (56) j j 6.5 5 5 1 (31) (32) p E p M = p EW (57) = p MW (58) 1 8 9 18

6.6 (52) (53) (54) TS TS = f p F f v f + t C p A d +,f t F fp F f v f + t M p M x M m D p EX = 1 TS = f p F f v f m D TS = p A j a j y r y y j p A a u u = r y y p A a j y j + a u u j = = = r y y [ p D a DS p A q A y + p E a ES p E a ES y p M ] [ y p D a AD a AM q A = q A + p M a AM p E x E p M x M q A ] = p EW x E p MW x M (52) 6.6 3 CGE cross-haulng Armngton 5.2 CET Armngton cross-haulng CET 19

6.6 CET r y = pd = p E ˆr y = ˆpD ρ = ˆp E ˆ 10 p E = p EW p EX ˆp E = ˆp EX ˆp EX = ρ cross-haulng p M = p MW p EX ˆp M = ˆp EX p M ˆp M = ρ ˆp D = ˆp M = ρ ˆp A = ρ ˆr y = ˆpD = ˆp E = ˆp M = ˆp A = ˆp EX = ρ ˆp EX ˆr y = ˆpD = ˆp E = ˆp M = ˆp A = ˆp EX = ρ 3 cross-haulng cross-haulng 10 ˆr y = ry /ry 20

6.7 6.7 5 6.7.1 5 5 11 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 TPP CGE 11 12 21

6.7 13 p EX /p u = p EX / p u p u TS TS (52) (54) p EW x E p MW x M = TS {TS} m D = m p EX TS {m D } p EX /p u TS TS 8 6.7.2 13 0 22

s F p EX TS = s F m p EW x E p EX TS = s F m p MW x M = TS {p EX } {TS} m D = (1 s F )m {m D } 6.7.1 14 7 2: SAM Sector Sector Sector Factor Factor DE DE DE Goods Goods Goods Other Agent Agent Sum AGR MAN SER LAB CAP AGR MAN SER AGR MAN SER UTL HH ROW Sector AGR 0 0 0 0 0 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130 Sector MAN 0 0 0 0 0 0 390 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 390 Sector SER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 170 0 0 0 0 0 0 170 Factor LAB 40 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 190 Factor CAP 30 200 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 270 DE AGR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 0 0 0 0 10 130 DE MAN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 240 0 0 0 150 390 DE SER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 170 0 0 0 170 Goods AGR 30 10 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 140 Goods MAN 10 50 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 220 0 0 300 Goods SER 20 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 0 0 170 Other UTL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 380 0 380 Agent HH 0 0 0 190 270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 460 Agent ROW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 0 0 80 0 160 Sum 130 390 170 190 270 130 390 170 140 300 170 380 460 160 14 23

2 SAM Part_12_SAM_example.xlsx ˆ SAM Part 7 SAM3 SAM SAM Part 7 ˆ SAM Part 7 SAM3 4 ž Part_7_SAM_Japan.xlsx SAM ž ž DE ž Part 10 ˆ 3 AGR MAN SER CAP LAB ˆ Sector ž Sector ž AGR LAB 40 CAP 30 AGR MAN SER 30 10 20 ˆ Factor ž ž HH 190 270 ˆ DE ž ž ˆ Goods ž Armngton ž AGR 120 20 ˆ Other 24

ž ž AGR MAN SER 70 220 90 ˆ Agent ž ž ROW ž HH 380 80 80 ˆ Sector ž Sector ž SAM 1 DE ˆ Factor ž 3 ˆ DE ž ž ROW Agent ž 130 AGR 120 10 ˆ Goods ž Armngton ž 140 AGR Armngton AGR MAN SER 30 10 30 70 ˆ Other ž HH ˆ Agent ž HH ž ROW 25

8 5 one_regon.gms one_regon.gms data_create.gms Part_12_SAM_example.gdx 8.1 $ontext $offtext parameter fl_fts " " fl_fex " " fl_alt " " ; fl_fts = 1; fl_fex = 0; fl_alt = 0; 3 ˆ 5.4 ˆ 6.7.1 ˆ 6.7.2 fl_fts = 1 * * parameter sg_dm() Armngton eta_de() ; * 4 sg_dm() = 4; eta_de() = 4; dsplay sg_dm, eta_de; Armngton sg_dm eta_de 4 26

8.1 parameter p_ew0() p_mw0() ; * 1 p_ew0() = 1; p_mw0() = 1; dsplay p_ew0, p_mw0; Harberger convenson 1 1 parameter srate_f ; srate_f = ts0 / sum(f, SAM("Agent","hh","Factor",f)); dsplay srate_f; 6.7.2 parameter alpha_x(j,) alpha_v() beta_v(f,) gamma() alpha_ad() alpha_am() delta_es() delta_ds() ; Armngton Armngton CET CET Armngton CET Part 8 parameter rt_m() rt_m0() ; * rt_m0() = 0; rt_m() = rt_m0(); 27

8.2 0 * Armngton e_c_a().. c_a() =e= ((alpha_ad()**(sg_dm()) * (p_d())**(1-sg_dm()))$a_ad0() + (alpha_am()**(sg_dm()) * ((1+rt_m())*p_m())**(1-sg_dm()))$a_am0() )**(1/(1-sg_dm())); * e_r_y().. r_y() =e= ((delta_es()**(-eta_de()) * (p_e())**(1+eta_de()))$a_es0() + (delta_ds()**(-eta_de()) * (p_d())**(1+eta_de()))$a_ds0() )**(1/(1+eta_de())); Armgton 5.4 a_am0() a_es0() * e_p_ex.. (ts - ts0)$fl_fts + (p_ex / p_u - 1)$fl_fex + (p_ex * ts - srate_f * m)$fl_alt =e= 0; fl_fts = 1 ts - ts0 =e= 0 e_m_d.. m_d =e= m - p_ex * (ts0$fl_fts + ts$fl_fex + ts$fl_alt); * * p_d.fx("agr") = 1; AGR 8.2 benchmark replcaton 3 ˆ bench benchmark replcaton ˆ cap_ 20% 28

8.3 ˆ rt_c ž MAN SER 10 % ˆ rt_m ž AGR 20 % AGR 8.3 3 y_ c_ d_ e_ m_ p_u one_regon.gms cap_ ˆ cap_ 20 % 15% 3 MAN SER AGR ˆ ts ts p_ex MAN ˆ MAN rt_c ˆ rt_c ˆ MAN SER MAN SER ˆ (1 + t C MAN )pa MAN p u (1 + t C SER )pa SER p u 29

8.3 rt_m ˆ 15 ˆ AGR AGR ˆ AGR p_a_agr ˆ MAN AGR (31) (32) 3: 変 数 の 水 準 変 数 の 変 化 率 (%) 貿 易 収 支 固 定 為 替 レート 固 定 貿 易 収 支 固 定 為 替 レート 固 定 bench cap_ rt_c rt_m cap fex rt_c_fex rt_m_fex cap_ rt_c rt_m cap fex rt_c_fex rt_m_fex u 380.0 321.0 379.9 379.2 357.8 294.2 363.1 u -15.54-0.01-0.20-5.84-22.59-4.44 y_agr 130.0 124.9 131.2 141.0 129.0 119.0 138.4 y_agr -3.90 0.91 8.46-0.77-8.48 6.48 y_man 390.0 332.5 389.3 381.1 323.0 415.7 386.3 y_man -14.74-0.17-2.29-17.18 6.60-0.94 y_ser 170.0 148.3 169.8 170.6 157.7 147.9 166.4 y_ser -12.79-0.14 0.32-7.21-12.98-2.10 c_agr 70.0 59.7 71.1 69.5 66.5 55.0 66.6 c_agr -14.74 1.56-0.66-4.96-21.48-4.88 c_man 220.0 184.5 219.2 219.9 205.7 169.8 210.6 c_man -16.14-0.35-0.04-6.50-22.81-4.29 c_ser 90.0 76.8 89.7 89.8 85.6 69.4 86.0 c_ser -14.62-0.36-0.23-4.84-22.89-4.46 d_agr 120.0 111.0 121.1 130.9 116.9 106.5 127.9 d_agr -7.48 0.92 9.09-2.61-11.22 6.57 d_man 112.0 98.9 113.1 112.4 102.1 102.3 110.8 d_man -11.69 0.96 0.37-8.86-8.67-1.04 d_ser 140.0 123.3 141.3 141.6 132.5 119.2 137.5 d_ser -11.94 0.93 1.15-5.36-14.87-1.80 e_agr 10.0 13.7 10.1 10.1 12.1 12.3 10.5 e_agr 36.87 0.81 0.75 20.73 23.05 5.39 e_man 150.0 129.0 149.9 143.1 110.8 199.2 152.2 e_man -14.00-0.07-4.59-26.13 32.77 1.45 m_agr 20.0 12.5 20.2 11.4 15.7 12.8 10.4 m_agr -37.46 1.02-43.03-21.44-35.95-48.03 m_man 60.0 50.2 59.8 61.8 63.3 36.1 56.3 m_man -16.37-0.39 3.00 5.54-39.81-6.20 ts 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 43.8 162.5 96.0 ts 0.00 0.00 0.00-45.19 103.18 20.05 p_d_m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_ex 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_ex 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 p_d_agr -5.75-7.50 0.42-5.23-7.84 0.28 p_d_agr 1.00 0.94 0.93 1.00 0.95 0.92 1.00 p_d_man 3.58-7.56-0.61 4.56-9.42-0.98 p_d_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.99 1.05 0.91 0.99 p_d_ser -5.28-7.50 0.15-5.14-7.33 0.09 p_d_ser 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 p_e_agr 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_e_agr 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 p_e_man 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_e_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 p_m_agr 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_m_agr 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 p_m_man 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_m_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 p_a_agr -4.58-7.50 2.34-4.55-6.86 2.35 p_a_agr 1.00 0.95 0.92 1.02 0.95 0.93 1.02 p_a_man 3.65-7.55-0.80 3.58-7.81-0.78 p_a_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.99 1.04 0.92 0.99 p_a_ser -5.28-7.50 0.15-5.14-7.33 0.09 p_a_ser 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 r_y_agr -4.86-7.50 0.28-4.78-7.13 0.26 r_y_agr 1.00 0.95 0.92 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 r_y_man 3.72-7.54-0.97 2.90-5.34-0.60 r_y_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.99 1.03 0.95 0.99 r_y_ser -5.28-7.50 0.15-5.14-7.33 0.09 r_y_ser 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 15 30

8.4 8.4 one_regon.gms $ext 3 _fex cap fex ˆ 80 cap fex 43.8 MAN ˆ ˆ 15% 5.8% ˆ 6.7.1 rt_c_fex ˆ rt_c_fex cap fex 0.01% 23% rt_m_fex ˆ rt_m_fex rt_c_fex 6.7.1 31

8.5 8.5 CET 6.6 p r y = pd = p E = p y = a AD q A + x E one_regon_cet.gms fl_cet = 0 8.2 4 4: 変 数 の 水 準 変 数 の 変 化 率 (%) CET 関 数 利 用 CET 関 数 利 用 せず CET 関 数 利 用 CET 関 数 利 用 せず bench cap_ rt_c rt_m cap ncet rt_c_ncet rt_m_ncet cap_ rt_c rt_m cap ncet rt_c_ncet rt_m_ncet u 380.0 321.0 379.9 379.2 326.0 379.9 379.2 u -15.54-0.01-0.20-14.21-0.01-0.21 y_agr 130.0 124.9 131.2 141.0 261.5 130.4 129.2 y_agr -3.90 0.91 8.46 101.16 0.28-0.60 y_man 390.0 332.5 389.3 381.1 230.2 390.0 390.4 y_man -14.74-0.17-2.29-40.98-0.01 0.10 y_ser 170.0 148.3 169.8 170.6 159.9 169.7 169.7 y_ser -12.79-0.14 0.32-5.97-0.18-0.17 c_agr 70.0 59.7 71.1 69.5 60.1 71.1 69.6 c_agr -14.74 1.56-0.66-14.21 1.56-0.61 c_man 220.0 184.5 219.2 219.9 188.7 219.2 219.8 c_man -16.14-0.35-0.04-14.21-0.35-0.09 c_ser 90.0 76.8 89.7 89.8 77.2 89.7 89.8 c_ser -14.62-0.36-0.23-14.21-0.35-0.17 d_agr 120.0 111.0 121.1 130.9 132.4 121.0 129.2 d_agr -7.48 0.92 9.09 10.37 0.80 7.68 d_man 112.0 98.9 113.1 112.4 123.6 112.9 111.2 d_man -11.69 0.96 0.37 10.37 0.80-0.68 d_ser 140.0 123.3 141.3 141.6 154.5 141.1 139.0 d_ser -11.94 0.93 1.15 10.37 0.80-0.68 e_agr 10.0 13.7 10.1 10.1 129.1 9.4 0.0 e_agr 36.87 0.81 0.75 1190.64-6.01-100.00 e_man 150.0 129.0 149.9 143.1 24.4 150.6 150.6 e_man -14.00-0.07-4.59-83.70 0.40 0.38 m_agr 20.0 12.5 20.2 11.4 22.1 20.2 10.6 m_agr -37.46 1.02-43.03 10.37 0.80-46.91 m_man 60.0 50.2 59.8 61.8 51.4 59.8 60.0 m_man -16.37-0.39 3.00-14.28-0.26-0.08 ts 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 p_ex 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00-7.53-0.57 p_d_m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 p_d_agr -5.75-7.50 0.42 0.00-7.53-0.02 p_ex 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 0.92 0.99 p_d_man 3.58-7.56-0.61 0.00-7.53-0.57 p_d_agr 1.00 0.94 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.92 1.00 p_d_ser -5.28-7.50 0.15 0.00-7.53-0.18 p_d_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.99 p_e_agr 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00-7.53-0.02 p_d_ser 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.92 1.00 p_e_man 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00-7.53-0.57 p_e_agr 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 0.92 1.00 p_m_agr 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00-7.53-0.57 p_e_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 0.92 0.99 p_m_man 3.94-7.52-1.56 0.00-7.53-0.57 p_m_agr 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 0.92 0.99 p_a_agr -4.58-7.50 2.34 0.00-7.53 2.03 p_m_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.98 1.00 0.92 0.99 p_a_man 3.65-7.55-0.80 0.00-7.53-0.57 p_a_agr 1.00 0.95 0.92 1.02 1.00 0.92 1.02 p_a_ser -5.28-7.50 0.15 0.00-7.53-0.18 p_a_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.99 r_y_agr -4.86-7.50 0.28 0.00-7.53-0.02 p_a_ser 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.92 1.00 r_y_man 3.72-7.54-0.97 0.00-7.53-0.57 r_y_agr 1.00 0.95 0.92 1.00 1.00 0.92 1.00 r_y_ser -5.28-7.50 0.15 0.00-7.53-0.18 r_y_man 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.99 r_y_ser 1.00 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.92 1.00 32

8.5 CET CET cap ncet ˆ cap ncet cap_ ˆ ˆ cap_ AGR MAN 3.9% 14.7% cap ncet AGR 101% MAN 40% ˆ AGR 1190% ˆ CET ˆ p D AGR = 1 ˆ rt_c_ncet ˆ rt_c_ncet rt_c AGR ˆ rt_m_ncet ˆ rt_m_ncet AGR 100% ˆ AGR AGR ˆ AGR AGR MAN 33

8.6 ˆ 1) 2) ˆ CET 8.6 ˆ 6.7.2 one_regon_alt.gms ˆ one_regon_tot.gms p EW p MW 9 Armngton, Paul S. (1969) A Theory of Demand for Products Dstngushed by Place of Producton, URL: http://www.jstor.org/pss/3866403. Burnaux, Jean-Marc, Jean Château, and Jean Chateau (2008) An Overvew of the OECD ENV-Lnkages Model, URL: http://deas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/653-en.html, DOI: http://dx.do.org/10.1787/230123880460. Hertel, Thomas W. (1999) Global Trade Analyss: Modelng and Applcatons, New York: Cambrdge Unversty Press, URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/repec:cup:cbooks: 9780521643740. Paltsev, Sergey V., John M. Relly, Henry D. Jacoby, Rchard S. Eckaus, James R. Mcfarland, Marcus Sarom, Malcolm Asadooran, and Mustafa H. Babker (2005) The MIT Emssons Predcton and Polcy Analyss (EPPA) Model: Verson 4. Takeda, Shro (2010) A computable general equlbrum analyss of the welfare eects of trade lberalzaton under derent market structures, Internatonal Revew of Appled Economcs, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 7593, January, URL: http://www.tandfonlne.com/do/abs/10.1080/ 02692170903424307, DOI: http://dx.do.org/10.1080/02692170903424307., Tosh H. Armura, and Makoto Sugno (2011) Labor Market Dstortons and Welfare- Decreasng Internatonal Emssons Tradng, URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_d=1886200. 34

, Tetsuya Hore, and Tosh H. Armura (2012) A Computable General Equlbrum Analyss of Border Adjustments under the Cap-And-Trade System: A Case Study of the Japanese Economy, Clmate Change Economcs, Vol. 03, No. 01, p. 1250003, February, URL: http://www.worldscentfc.com/do/abs/10.1142/s2010007812500030, DOI: http://dx.do.org/10.1142/s2010007812500030., Tosh H. Armura, Hanae Tamechka, Carolyn Fscher, and Alan K. Fox (2013) Outputbased allocaton of emssons permts for mtgatng the leakage and compettveness ssues for the Japanese economy, Envronmental Economcs and Polcy Studes, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 89110, August, URL: http://lnk.sprnger.com/10.1007/s10018-013-0072-8, DOI: http://dx.do.org/10.1007/s10018-013-0072-8. (2007) URL http://www.ret.go. jp/jp/publcatons/summary/07030019.html (2004) 10 ˆ 2016-03-30: 35