Takuya NOMOTO Global Environment Bureau, Ministry of the Environment, Japan Measures to produce National Adaptation Plan for climate change in Japan Climate change impact in Japan Temperature Climate change and future prospects in Japan Rise of average temperature (1.15 degrees over past 100 years) Rise by 2.1 4.0 degrees by the end of 21 st century, compared with 1980 99(prediction 99( i using scenario and model in IPCC AR4) Change of annual average temperature in Japan Change from average t emperature fro 0 om 1981 to 2010 Rise of average te emperature in Japan Meteorological Agency(2012) MEXT, MA, MOE, Japan(2009)
Climate change impact in Japan Precipitation Chaange from averaage precipitation n from 1981 to 2010 0 [mm] Changes compared with recent years in Japan Number of days; >200mm/hour Number of days Number of dayys Number of days; >100mm/hour Meteorological Agency(2012) Climate Change Impacts (1) Heavy Rain Disaster Disaster risks due to heavy rain are predicted to increase Possibilities of floods, which exceed final river maintenance target, are projected to be 1.8 4.4 times higher than current levels in Japan (based on the research for first grade rivers in Japan) -0.5 0.5-0.7 0 5 07 0.7-0.9 0.9-1.0 1.0-1.1 1.1-1.5 1.5-2.0 2.0-3.0 3.0-5.0 5.0-10.0 留萌川 天塩川 渚滑川 湧別川 常呂川 網走川 十勝川 石狩川 尻別川 後志利別川 釧路川 沙流川 鵡川 高瀬川 岩木川 馬淵川 米代川 雄物川 北上川 子吉川 赤川 最上川 鳴瀬川 名取川 荒川 10.0- 阿賀野川 関川 阿武隈川 黒部川 姫川 小矢部川 久慈川 梯川 常願寺川 利根川 那珂川 手取川 庄川 神通川 九頭竜川 信濃川 北川 円山川 日野川 天神川千代川 木曽川 由良川 天竜川 斐伊川 高津川 太田川 芦田川 高梁川 江の川 淀川 揖保川 加古川 旭川 吉井川 鈴鹿川 大和川紀の川 土器川 吉野川 松浦川 小瀬川 佐波川 遠賀川 重信川 嘉瀬川 山国川 大分川 仁淀川 筑後川 肱川 大野川 矢部川 渡川 菊池川 番匠川 白川 六角川 緑川 本明川 五ヶ瀬川 球磨川 小丸川 川内川 大淀川 肝属川 那賀川 物部川 矢作川 庄内川 新川 雲出川 櫛田川 宮川 豊川 荒川 多摩川 相模川 鶴見川 富士川狩野川 大井川 安倍川 菊川 -00.55 0.5-0.7 0.7-0.9 Magnification of flooding in hydrographic basin 0.9-1.0 Magnification is a1.0-1.1 median of future magnification of 1.1-1.5 floodingg (2075 2099) divided byy current magnification g 15 20 1.5-2.0 (1979 2003) 2.0-3.0 3.0-5.0 5.0-10.0 4 10.0Reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Climate Change Impacts (2) Habitat Change to North Future prediction shows that suitable water temperature for corals will shift northwards. However, coral habitats will be trapped between increased coral bleaching area and acidified area which are not suitable for coral growth. The habitat for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan might be decreased by half between 2020 2030 and lost completely between 2030 2040. Changes in Coral Habitats shifting North between Current (2000) and Future (2040, 2060 and 2090) Green line: northern limit of tropical/subtropical coral habitat Yellow line: northern limit of temperature coral habitat Black line: 30 water temperature line (not suitable for coral habitat) Mesh: indicator of acidification df (saturation of aragonite). Saturation of aragonite is decreased dwhen carbon dioxide melts into the sea, and aragonite is dissolved when it is under 1. Reference Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber and Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan Biogeosciences, 9, 4955 4968. 5 Climate Change Impacts (3) Agriculture Yields of irrigated rice will be increased but the quality might be negatively impacted Nation 62.0% 17.6% Ratio of Class 1 Over 90 % Hokkaido 88.0% +0.9% 09% Less than 30 % Tohoku Chugoku/ Hokuriku 76.1% Shikoku 43.0% 14.1% 36.1% 40.1% 18.5% Kanto 75.0% Tokai 14.9% Kyushu Kinki 25.2% Okinawa 35.2% 35.6% 32.5% 44.0% +0.1% 32.4% +23.8% Quality and crop situation of irrigated rice in 2010 Map of Japan shows: Indicator of rice production in each prefecture (number on prefecture) Ratio of Class 1 rice (colour of prefecture) Number in the box shows: the ratio of class 1 rice in 2010 (upper box) deviation from average over last 5 years Reference: Tomoya Watanabe (2012) What level does climate change make impacts on agricultural production, how to address and how should agriculture, forestry and fishery sector tackle climate change? Research project funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. 6
Climate Change Impact (4) Human Health Human health average temperature in January Aedes aegypti Measures on Climate Change Adaptation Mitigation: Control emissions of GHGs, a cause of global warming Adaptation: Adjust society and environment to global warming impacts which have been happening and are likely to happen Increase GHGs emissions Change on climatic elements Impacts from global warming CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use Temperature and sea level rise, change in Impacts on natural environment and rainfall pattern human society Mitigation Control GHGs emissions Adaptation Adjust environment and society
Countermeasures for adaptation to climate change by MOEJ 1994 2001 R and D Achievements Climate change impact in Japan Project for comprehensive projection of climate change impacts (2005 09) 2008 Wise adaptation to climate change 2009 Comprehensive report on observation and prediction of climate change 2010 Approaches to climate change adaptation 2011 Comprehensive Statistic report and portal site for climate change impact Research on Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Policies (2010 14) 2013 Integrated report on observation, prediction and impact assessment of climate change Steps towards Adaptation Plan Establish Expert Committee on Climate Change Impact Assessment at 114 th Global Environmental Subcommittee, Central Environmental Council (2 July, 2013) Further detailed projection of climate change in Japan to monitor extreme events Assessment on climate change impacts in Japan Analysis on risk information Summarize climate change impacts, risk assessment and future issues (around Jan, 2015) Extraction of priority areas/issues in short term ( 10 years), middle term (10 30 years) and long term (30 100 years) Review at each ministry i Develop adaptation plan as a government wide integrated effort (summer, 2015) Regular review (every 5 years)
Adaptation measures in prefectures Nagano prefecture Establishing monitoring network with citizens participation Establishing Task Force for adaptation in strategy meeting for climate change Kyoto prefecture Adaptation measures (ex. Alert system for flood, heat stroke, local production for local consumption of food) in Prefectural Action Plan Saitama prefecture Prescribed adaptation in prefectural ordinance Adaptation measures (ex. Heat stroke, drought, crops)in Prefectural Action Plan Kumamoto prefecture Special Committee for adaptation measures Mie prefecture Basic investigation throughout the prefecture(2012 13) Starting the discussion for Adaptation Plan Okinawa prefecture Okinawa prefecture Adaptation measures (ex. Protection of coast, influences on agriculture, water resources) in Prefectural Action Plan